$4.4 NLHE MTT: ICM - All in or Fold?

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Already past the bubble Satellite with 6 players left. Final 5 get a $33 ticket to the tournament I wanted to play in, 6th gets $19 cash.

Been on final table for ages and dominant chip leader has started 'bullying' everyone by pushing all in every hand taking the blinds as everyone is folding almost every hand as a result. A couple of times people have called and doubled-up, or called and been eliminated, to this point.

Three of us shorter-stacked (albeit still with about 10 BB each) all pretty similarly chipped up.

I get pocket 8s in the BB position. Chip leader has pushed again. Call or fold? I chose to call because of my pocket pair and a double-up from here would take me to 40k chips and essentially to fold every hand going forwards until someone else is eliminated. But I was thinking of maybe folding and hoping someone else goes first, but the problem is that I had no idea when I'd get a pair or AK again and the longer you leave it the less you get when doubling-up. If I'd folded I'd have had less than 8 BB left, about 7 after almost certainly folding the SB next hand and its a Turbo tournament so blinds going up too.

As it happens, the chip leader had shit but suited cards and flopped the flush. Even without the flush, he hit his only overcard on the river too. Gah! Nevermind. What should have been done here in your eyes? Was this an unnecessary and silly call given ICM?


888Poker, Hold'em No Limit - 1,250/2,500 (250 ante) - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 34,931 (14 bb)
MP: 14,880 (6 bb)
CO: 25,798 (10 bb)
BU: 110,208 (44 bb)
SB: 22,652 (9 bb)
BB (Hero): 21,531 (9 bb)

Pre-Flop: (5,250) Hero is BB with 8♦ 8♣
3 players fold, BTN raises to 109,958 (all-in), 1 fold, Hero calls 18,781 (all-in)

Flop: (45,312) J♦ 7♦ 6♦ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (45,312) 3♠ (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (45,312) T♥ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: 45,312

Showdown:
BU shows 5♦ T♦ (a flush, Jack high)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 32%, Flop: 97%, Turn: 100%, River: 100%)

BB (Hero) shows 8♦ 8♣ (a pair of Eights)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 68%, Flop: 3%, Turn: 0%, River: 0%)

BU wins 45,312
 
A satellite bubble is a very special situation, and with this chip distribution we need to call extremely tight against the chip leader. Just doing some rough in the head math, right now with 4 almost equally short stacks your risk of busting next is around 25%. If you call and win, that risk will go down to near zero, but this still mean, you need at least 75% equity to make a profitable call. Which basically mean you can only call with aces. This situation is almost like a game of "chicken", where the player to lose his patience first will end up in the ditch.
 
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So 68% pre-flop equity, while decent, was still negative EV in going first?

I'm guessing in hindsight I should have allowed pressure to build on MP to blink first.
 
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PPT said:
So 68% pre-flop equity, while decent, was still negative EV in going first? I'm guessing in hindsight I should have allowed pressure to build on MP to blink first.
Click to expand...
Yes exactly. On a satellite bubble its ok to let your stack get very short, as long as someone else is even shorter and will need to "go first". You can still look for spots to push though but not call.
 
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fundiver199 said:
Yes exactly. On a satellite bubble its ok to let your stack get very short, as long as someone else is even shorter and will need to "go first". You can still look for spots to push though but not call.
Click to expand...
If a 'chipstack bully' is pushing every hand, then that removes the push option though doesn't it?


Oh well, lesson learnt, and although I'm disappointed to not get the $33 ticket . . . getting $19 cash is a nice consolation prize for a $4.40 buy-in. It could have been worse.
 
As a rule, chipleaders are leaders in any position in satellites. They charge a lot because of the intimidating factor. And as a rule, they do it with any hands. Therefore, waiting for your own good hand is the most profitable in my opinion. At the same time, by that time the number of players at the table may decrease, someone will definitely run out of patience
 
im folding vs chip leader and instead for for a jam spot so that i will have fold equity
 
PPT said:
If a 'chipstack bully' is pushing every hand, then that removes the push option though doesn't it?
Click to expand...

No because he is not always first to act.
 
What if you're the chip leader? Why jam every hand and risk to see your stack vaporised in 2 or 3 hands where you jammed light instead of waiting for the short stacks to eliminate each other. I understand puting pressure, that is what you want, but jamming 10 5 suited doesn't seem good to me, but what do I know. Even if you have a very big stack you just double people up. I guess it would be fine if everyone played the icm perfectly and called with just pocket aces as fundiver said, but that is not the case. As we've seen even in this situation, the chip leader got called with pocket 8.
 
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Badday94 said:
What if you're the chip leader? Why jam every hand and risk to see your stack vaporised in 2 or 3 hands where you jammed light instead of waiting for the short stacks to eliminate each other. I understand puting pressure, that is what you want, but jamming 10 5 suited doesn't seem good to me, but what do I know. Even if you have a very big stack you just double people up. I guess it would be fine if everyone played the icm perfectly and called with just pocket aces as fundiver said, but that is not the case. As we've seen even in this situation, the chip leader got called with pocket 8.
Click to expand...

That is a good point, and for me personally as the chip leader in this spot I dont jam every hand. Human psycology cant be ignored, and in situations, where the NASH equilibrium "allow" us to jam any hand from any position, if we actually do so, we risk irritating the other players, so that one of them will eventually spite call us.
 
Badday94 said:
What if you're the chip leader? Why jam every hand and risk to see your stack vaporised in 2 or 3 hands where you jammed light instead of waiting for the short stacks to eliminate each other. I understand puting pressure, that is what you want, but jamming 10 5 suited doesn't seem good to me, but what do I know. Even if you have a very big stack you just double people up. I guess it would be fine if everyone played the icm perfectly and called with just pocket aces as fundiver said, but that is not the case. As we've seen even in this situation, the chip leader got called with pocket 8.
Click to expand...
In this situation almost every hand the chip leader was stealing all the blinds since everyone else was folding, knowing they'd be dead if they called and lost.

The bully could afford to lose 20k to me if I'd won, he'd still have 90k in chips. And he was stealing 5250 in blinds every single hand if nobody called, which easily makes up 20k of chips to one player once every so often.

When the bullying started, the chip leader only had 60k of chips and was up to 110k by the time I called him, so it was certainly working for him.
 
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