$50 NL HE MTT: Mystery bounty spot

5 players itm 15%, 5 players left, bounty can we got only during itm, so now it is available

starting stack 20k, 50/50 tournament/mystery bounty pool
blinds 5/10k

hj raises 20k (125k stack), co (250k stack folds), bu calls ( 170k stack) hero (260k stack) I have A8o, should I go all in? What range do you push here? BB 200k stack.

You are on the SB it looks like? I'm just folding A8o from the SB. I suppose that position doesn't matter much since no one has more than 13bb and there will be a lot of shoves, but I'm not flatting out of position with junk like A8o and if I'm gonna jam 13bb into 2 players already at 2x I want a pocket pair and probably a decent one like minimum 77 or 88, and if it's an A I want AJs+ or AQo+.

In a mystery bounty event, where the mystery bounties are half the price pool, the value of a bounty is slightly more than half the average stack size, when the tournament reaches ITM. So in this game a mystery bounty is worth more than 100k, which obviously does give you better pot odds, if you jam and get called, since you cover both opponents.

For me however its a bit of a red flag, that HJ min-raises out of a 12,5BB stack instead of open jamming. Is he doing this, because he hope to see a cheap flop, or is he doing it, because he hope to induce someone to shove on him? Given the buyin, chances are, he is probably at least a decent player, so I think, there is a high risk of the latter scenario.

And I dont want to be jamming a hand as bad as A8o into some kind of trap. Its also worth noting, that if HJ call, then BTN probably call as well, since he can win HJs bounty. And by the way BTN could also be flatting to induce someone behind to shove, so we need to be a bit worried about, what he has as well. And whatever their range is, if they both call, now you need A8o to win against two players.

Which, even if you are against hands like 77 and KJs, will only happen 29,5% of the time. And if you are against hands like TT and AQo, you are completely toast with only 9% chance to win the main pot. So jamming here is a bit of a "do or die" choise, and with a hand as bad as A8o its going to be "die" a bit to often in my opinion. Semprini already laid out a reasonable range for jamming.