Buy in or satellites

AviCKter said:

You should not be playing a satellite for a tournament you don't already have a bankroll for, i.e. if you're playing a satellite for $22 Tournament, you must already have the bankroll for directly buying in on the $22 tournament. Only on rare occasion, when you're feeling like "taking a shot" should this rule be broken.

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ohshootmybad said:

Why do I need a bankroll of $2.2K to play a satellite for a $22 MTT?

Let's say the satellite buy-in into a $22 MTT is $2.20, then my BR should reflect that buy-in. If I have $220+, then I have a big enough BR to play the $2 satellite entry.

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AviCKter said:

Here's the reasoning:
Because the prize awarded isn't in dollars but an entry, i.e. you cannot go out and buy yourself a beer with it. Sure you got an entry, but the actual value of the game to you was -$2.20.

Now to make some actual money you have to beat the field of $22 tournament, how confident will you be in your game, so as to beat that field? Because the level playing field isn't $2.20, its $22. Yes that comprises of people with years of experience in crushing the level you're playing at right now. And have many more experience playing the level they're playing in.

Now, why do you need to have a bankroll of $220 for a $2.20 game? Because my friend, you understand that even if you're a great poker professional, it still is a gamble (a risk). So you're dividing your risk into 100 different risks than to take it at once.

But let's say, you still become stubborn and decide to put your entire roll into playing satellites. You have a bankroll of $220 and only intend to play $2.20 satellite. That gives you 100 games. Lets say, you're an average player with 10%ROI, i.e. you're beating 1 out of every 10 games.
So your total investment=$220
Your total reward=$220
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Break-even, right?

Not really! And here's how, you just traded $220 of real dollars for $220 in tickets, i.e. you have 10 $22 tickets. Now just to break-even, or get your money back, you'll have to finish something like 20th (Pays around $220) in a field of 4000, i.e. your chance is 20/4000=0.5%, in one of these 10 games. Cumulatively you have 5% chance of doing that = 0.5%*10.

What if, you had 20% ROI? Same calculation, you just have 20 tickets now, i.e. 10% chance of getting your money back.

Now my question to you is simple: What would you rather choose?
1. 100% of $220, or
2. 10% chance of making $220

Which has a better EV for you?

I never said, don't play it. Play it for fun, or taking a shot. But don't expect it to garner you a +EV.

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Aglarion said:

I see your point, but you should consider that even tournaments like the sunday million have satelites for less than a dollar, so even if you take a shot everyday you wouldn't be spending a huge bankroll.

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AviCKter said:

Let's say you're considering to play in the $11 Sunday Storm.(Starting chip 10000)

You saw a satellite that costs $1.10, with 10 seats Guaranteed, average playing field of 300. Now you're like should I play the satellite or should I buy-in directly?

So here's the maths behind it.
Assuming you're a good player with a 10% ROI (in tournaments, which is high to be honest, but okay for $1.10 stakes), 300 players translates to $300 in prize pool, or 27 Seats and chump change. If you're a 10% ROI player, and the payouts are 9%, then it's an easy break-even game for you.

But lets assume you don't have a 10% ROI and want to know whether I should play it or not, as you can see above it pays 9% of the player pool. And with the Buy-in for the satellite, you have 10 buy-in to level with the actual tournament, i.e. you can play 10 times to get into the tournament with the same amount of money to directly buy-in the tournament. So in theory, you just have to win 1 out of every 10 games you play (10:1), in a game that offers 11:1, to get to the requisite tournament.

If you do it in less than 10 games, lets say you played 5 games to get a ticket. So 5 games = $5.50 investment, for the exact chip count as everyone else. That means, when most people's chip would value $0.0011/chip, your chip would value $0.00055/chip. As you can see, before even the game began, you were a winner. And had a huge advantage over the level playing field.

Now, your decision should come down to: If you're a winning player at the stakes the satellites are being offered, then you should play the satellites. If you're not, then direct buy-in (But just for fun).
That said, more number of games you play, the more time you've to invest playing, i.e. more time commitment required.

Hope it makes sense.

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