How many are left etc? Is the guy fishy, has he been tight etc, if this guy is a fishy spewer, then he might think its ok to call with QJ or any pictures.. but it also depends where you are in the tourney and how many are left i think..
rhombus said:
Yeah, my bad... I mean, i cant see it getting past the big stack on the button, if it did for whatever reason, then jamming might be ok, but he knows you should be jamming most cards there, so maybe hes gonna call wider than you would hope... any ace and any king are ahead, and youre 60/40 with hands like QJ,Q10 etc if he wants to get a bit out of line...
Also, theres like a 50% jump in between each payment...
The bigstack has 4x what you have, but youre all pretty shallow, so depends how good your heads up play is i guess. Raise fold is pretty grim line here, but id back myself ICM wise to find a better position here... Especially without a read on BB.
Well, K2o, is 50.5% against any random hand. What do you think the minimum is he would call with?
If he calls with 66+,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,A8o+,KTo+,QJo which may be a little wider than you would hope... (its 18%) then youre 31% favourite.
If we take out a little of his range: 66+,A8s+,KTs+,QJs,JTs,ATo+,KTo+ then youre dropping to 29%.
Average 30% favourite when he calls. Which gives you 14500*0.3= +4350
I guess hes calling 18% of the time, so he folds 82% of the time = +1700.
(0.82*1700)+(0.06*14500)-(0.12*7000)= +1424
If i have done the maths right, then it looks like a positive shove... 🙂
If he calls with 66+,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,A8o+,KTo+,QJo which may be a little wider than you would hope... (its 18%) then youre 31% favourite.
If we take out a little of his range: 66+,A8s+,KTs+,QJs,JTs,ATo+,KTo+ then youre dropping to 29%.
Average 30% favourite when he calls. Which gives you 14500*0.3= +4350
I guess hes calling 18% of the time, so he folds 82% of the time = +1700.
(0.82*1700)+(0.06*14500)-(0.12*7000)= +1424
If i have done the maths right, then it looks like a positive shove... 🙂
When YOU are not desperate, NEVER shove K2. It is just bad. Especially in a spot where you are almost always getting called. For Pete's sake do not 3bet shove with it vs an early position raise that likely pot committed the original raiser. Also, shove/ call charts are made with BAD assumptions. Competent players are NOT putting their money in bad anywhere near as often as it is assumed.
GWU73 said:
How often do you think the BB with 10BB is calling? There will only be 8750 in the pot and he will have to call 6000, which is his tournament life. Hes only getting 1.45/1 on his call, so to break even he has to have ATLEAST 41% equity in the pot. IE. AT vs KQ.
Like i demonstrated earlier, even when villain calls, he's only losing 70% of the time.
Its a higher variance play I guess, but thats how you treat a short stack, your other options are FOLD - You hand the 500 ante and your 400 blind, plus the SB 800 blind back to the short stack. CALL - Not know where you are in the hand if its checked, or faise an all in shove from SB (Which you have to fold). Raise to somewhere between 16-1800, still unsure where you are in the hand, although you can assume him a reasonable range, however most likely you face a fold or a resteal.