How to ruin your winrate by not betting for thin value (monster under the bed syndrom)

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fundiver199

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  • #1
I checked the river with intention to evaluate, if he bet, and was chocked to see, what he checked back. This hand is from early in a 8-man SnG, stacks are still deep, this limped pot is still very small, and both players have a wide range. In a spot like this you just have to bet for value, even though your hand is sort of obvious, and you could be beat. But in reality how often are people checking a hand better than TX here after betting flop and turn? Not very often, and if you occationally get check-raised, you just need to make a decision. Its not like, its a disaster to bet like 100 chips here and then fold.

 
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Semprini

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  • #2
I don't think this is that bad. The river counterfeits him, he now loses to AT. I suppose that he could have raised the turn but flatting with a non-nut strong hand is fine.

I see what you mean by trying a simple value bet on the river as folding to a check-raise is not a disaster but really the combos that hit this board are maybe 50-60% behind and 40-50% ahead, so if he is ahead, you've already paid him 2 streets. Checking back here is certainly passive since the J stopped you on the river, but it's not dumb neither.
 
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fundiver199

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  • #3
Its not the worst play ever, but when he checked back, I was 100% expecting to win or at least chop with the last K, so when I saw his hand, it was a real "WTF" moment. Sure it might be a bit of a thin valuebet for him, especially since his hand is so obvious, that one can argue, its difficult to get worse to call. But then he can size down, and if he dont at least try, he dont give me a chance to make a hero call with a hand like the one, I had.

And even though he lose to AT and boats, he is not going to be beat very often at all, as the hand went down. Better hands would mostly bet the river, and hands like KQ and KJ would likely also raise preflop and not just limp. So with a bit of handreading the board should not be that scary for him, and betting is almost a freeroll. If I fold its not the end of the world, because then he dont need to show, and maybe I get a little frustrated thinking, I might got bluffed.
 
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