ICM is one of the most unfair things in poker

JhonnyThe357 · 2026-05-27T02:21:24-0400

Hey everyone, how's it going? I'd like your opinion on this.

ICM is one of the most unfair things in poker.

You spend hours building your stack in a tournament… then you get close to the bubble or the final table and discover that you can't just play "to win chips".

There are spots where:

* you would be WAY ahead of the villain's hand,

* you would have an easy call at the beginning of the tournament,

* but near the prize money, the correct thing to do becomes to fold.

And that's where a lot of people get lost.

The player looks at the cards and thinks: "how am I going to fold AQ here?"

But ICM doesn't look at cards. It looks at survival, stack distribution, and the real value of the prizes.

Sometimes losing an all-in costs more money than winning that same all-in adds.

It took me a long time to understand this. At first, I thought ICM was "playing with fear".

Today I see that it's simply understanding that tournament chips aren't worth linearly.

And you:

What's the most absurd fold you've ever made because of ICM?

fundiver199 · 2026-05-27T03:22:37-0400

JhonnyThe357 said:
What's the most absurd fold you've ever made because of ICM?

I have folded AA preflop on the bubble of a satellite, when I already had enough chips to be able to fold my way to a ticket.

JhonnyThe357 · 2026-05-27T03:58:54-0400

fundiver199 said:
I have folded AA preflop on the bubble of a satellite, when I already had enough chips to be able to fold my way to a ticket.

With AA, I'd bet even my car.😅

moraeskvmi · 2026-05-27T07:20:27-0400

Satellite is different, Nice fold funddiver199

ne0npipe · 2026-05-27T19:27:58-0400

Just started freerolling, and placements matter a lot. I still tend to cling to some hands because of FOMO, but I’m learning that folding strong hands in some spots is just part of maximizing tournament profit, not playing scared.

SpanRmonka · 2026-05-27T19:39:45-0400

JhonnyThe357 said:
With AA, I'd bet even my car.😅

PLease don't bet your car just to win a satty ticket!!

skaterick · 2026-05-27T20:07:19-0400

fundiver199 said:
I have folded AA preflop on the bubble of a satellite, when I already had enough chips to be able to fold my way to a ticket.

i don't think that is absurd at all , especially if you have opponents that cover your stack .

JhonnyThe357 · 2026-05-27T22:48:17-0400

SpanRmonka said:
PLease don't bet your car just to win a satty ticket!!

I am joking😅

JhonnyThe357 · 2026-05-27T22:59:38-0400

skaterick said:
i don't think that is absurd at all , especially if you have opponents that cover your stack .

To think in terms of "hand ranges" instead of "isolated cards" is the first step on a journey to profitability and, above all, a real understanding of the game.

I confess that I have difficulty applying these ranges when making decisions.

JhonnyThe357 · 2026-05-27T23:00:50-0400

ne0npipe said:
Just started freerolling, and placements matter a lot. I still tend to cling to some hands because of FOMO, but I’m learning that folding strong hands in some spots is just part of maximizing tournament profit, not playing scared.

For me, the value of a hand is entirely relative to the position, the stack size, and, most importantly, the actions of the opponents.

The complexity of hand ranges shouldn't be a barrier, but a stepping stone.

JhonnyThe357 · 2026-05-27T23:04:30-0400

moraeskvmi said:
Satellite is different, Nice fold funddiver199

Exactly!
I think I shouldn't view my cards as isolated values, but rather try to understand the pattern of my opponent's hand range forming in each betting round.

TheniT · 2026-05-27T23:16:22-0400

ICM can feel unfair because chip value changes based on payouts and survival, not just chip EV. This often forces medium stacks to play tighter while big stacks apply pressure, making tournament decisions very different from regular poker strategy.

JhonnyThe357 · 2026-05-27T23:21:48-0400

TheniT said:
ICM can feel unfair because chip value changes based on payouts and survival, not just chip EV. This often forces medium stacks to play tighter while big stacks apply pressure, making tournament decisions very different from regular poker strategy.

inevitably!

guroove · 2026-05-27T23:27:14-0400

fundiver199 said:
I have folded AA preflop on the bubble of a satellite, when I already had enough chips to be able to fold my way to a ticket.

In satellites it's different, folding AA on the bubble if you're very close to the ticket is the right thing to do

guroove · 2026-05-27T23:36:47-0400

JhonnyThe357 said:
Hey everyone, how's it going? I'd like your opinion on this.

ICM is one of the most unfair things in poker.

You spend hours building your stack in a tournament… then you get close to the bubble or the final table and discover that you can't just play "to win chips".

There are spots where:

* you would be WAY ahead of the villain's hand,

* you would have an easy call at the beginning of the tournament,

* but near the prize money, the correct thing to do becomes to fold.

And that's where a lot of people get lost.

The player looks at the cards and thinks: "how am I going to fold AQ here?"

But ICM doesn't look at cards. It looks at survival, stack distribution, and the real value of the prizes.

Sometimes losing an all-in costs more money than winning that same all-in adds.

It took me a long time to understand this. At first, I thought ICM was "playing with fear".

Today I see that it's simply understanding that tournament chips aren't worth linearly.

And you:

What's the most absurd fold you've ever made because of ICM?

You probably already been on the other side of the ICM survival/struggle and you were probably taking advantage of the situation and putting so much pressure on smaller stacks.. it's just a weapon like any other we use in tournament when we have the chance..
I busted 9th once in a live tournament while I was 3rd in chips, just because I had the 2 largest stack on my direct left with them both being very aggro, they 3bet every hand I opened.. and with me being card dead for so long I got bullied my to the 9th place for a min cash.. that's how it is..

KeyPatience · 2026-05-27T23:38:22-0400

JhonnyThe357 said:
Hey everyone, how's it going? I'd like your opinion on this.

ICM is one of the most unfair things in poker.

You spend hours building your stack in a tournament… then you get close to the bubble or the final table and discover that you can't just play "to win chips".

There are spots where:

* you would be WAY ahead of the villain's hand,

* you would have an easy call at the beginning of the tournament,

* but near the prize money, the correct thing to do becomes to fold.

And that's where a lot of people get lost.

The player looks at the cards and thinks: "how am I going to fold AQ here?"

But ICM doesn't look at cards. It looks at survival, stack distribution, and the real value of the prizes.

Sometimes losing an all-in costs more money than winning that same all-in adds.

It took me a long time to understand this. At first, I thought ICM was "playing with fear".

Today I see that it's simply understanding that tournament chips aren't worth linearly.

And you:

What's the most absurd fold you've ever made because of ICM?

Folding also depends on how many players have dragged you into making this tough decision!
If it’s one on one and you’re fighting for survival then anything less than AK and QQs & lower (in terms of pocket cards) should be folded!
I personally prefer folding anything if there is a brawl involving more than three players!
Since the low probability (due to everyone heavily invested in the pot) mostly gets the better of any great looking hole cards in such situations!

Lodestone · 2026-05-28T00:59:41-0400

Folding AQ with 1.8bb left was one of my biggest anxiety ridden sat ICM spots recently (ended up cashing a couple hands later)

That said, many people overcompensate for ICM and torch their stack for a mincash by blinding away in MTTs close to the bubble. If I were to make a general statement it would be 'most people adjust too much but too late'.

GTO Wizard did an interesting piece on cEV vs ICM and the jist of it from what I recall was that you should be switching to a more ICM focused strategy when there is between 65 and 35% of the field remaining to play optimally according to the sims which is WAAAAAY sooner than most people would consider it.

It feels like many people treat ICM like a switch that turns on when there are 3 people left before the bubble and then they start folding everything.

JhonnyThe357 · 2026-05-28T02:38:36-0400

Lodestone said:
Folding AQ with 1.8bb left was one of my biggest anxiety ridden sat ICM spots recently (ended up cashing a couple hands later)

That said, many people overcompensate for ICM and torch their stack for a mincash by blinding away in MTTs close to the bubble. If I were to make a general statement it would be 'most people adjust too much but too late'.

GTO Wizard did an interesting piece on cEV vs ICM and the jist of it from what I recall was that you should be switching to a more ICM focused strategy when there is between 65 and 35% of the field remaining to play optimally according to the sims which is WAAAAAY sooner than most people would consider it.

It feels like many people treat ICM like a switch that turns on when there are 3 people left before the bubble and then they start folding everything.

The worst thing is playing a tournament without having the time available. I end up playing anyway.

That's exactly what happened in yesterday's silver-level tournament, May 26, 2026, in 888poker.

On that exact topic, see how the rest of the deck “doesn't care” about my pocket cards.

My supposedly premium hand is going down the drain.

Fortunately, this happens favorably to me sometimes too, so it's part of the game.😅

SergioV · 2026-05-28T02:59:35-0400

I completely agree that ICM feels brutal sometimes. One of the hardest things in tournament poker is realizing that a hand can be very strong in chip EV but still become a fold because of payout pressure.
I remember folding AKs once near a satellite bubble against a big stack shove, and it felt completely wrong emotionally. At the start of a tournament it would have been an instant call, but with several short stacks still alive, busting there would have been a disaster financially.
That’s what makes ICM so difficult — you’re not only playing cards anymore, you’re playing survival and payout structure. A lot of players understand hand strength, but understanding risk premium is a completely different level of tournament poker.

fundiver199 · 2026-05-28T03:58:43-0400

moraeskvmi said:
Satellite is different, Nice fold funddiver199

Its not exactly rocket science to fold, when additional chips have no value at all. But I have seen players not cash in a satellite, because they just "had" to play AA and got sucked out on.

wushibala · 2026-05-28T04:32:16-0400

Yes, that happens, and it’s really frustrating. For example, yesterday I was playing a freeroll and there were 17 players left before the money when I got dealt KK and AK. I had to fold them because my stack was very short, and if I lost, I would have been eliminated.

Luvepoker · 2026-05-28T08:01:49-0400

Not sure i would consider it unfair but i get what your saying on how it can change you play. Its more about helping you realize the most profitable way. Play as you please.

Uncloggie · 2026-05-28T08:08:56-0400

It's just math and it is more fair than just about anything else on this planet.

Vallet · 2026-05-28T08:15:49-0400

We must adapt when the game structure changes. Beautiful cards shouldn't influence good decisions. Sometimes the most absurd fold helps us advance in the standings.

TeUnit · 2026-05-28T08:37:36-0400

If everyone followed it nobody would be sitter limping, but the games would be much more difficult.

ICM is one of the most unfair things in poker

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