ICM Spot, Can I ever call?

monkeytilter · Aug 15, 2026

CC Freeroll, 4 Paid:

I limp SB, min stab flop and 2BB bet turn, check river - get shoved on - can I ever call??
Folded and ITM for 4th.

I start 7.5BB eff.
Was tangling with aggy big stack the ICM mistake from the get go?

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SpanRmonka · Aug 15, 2026

Yeah I don't think you can call that, 2 oher stacks similar to yours, so you're still well in it!!

You've likely got to expect an A there

monkeytilter · Aug 15, 2026

SpanRmonka said:
Yeah I don't think you can call that, 2 oher stacks similar to yours, so you're still well in it!!

You've likely got to expect an A there

I think he agg. enough to ISO most Ax so discounted those, feared some 97, T9 type hands.
I don't think this is ever a naked bluff, but maybe villain picked up on the situation and correctly abused it

@veszmo ?

I tried to leave a workable stack behind compared to other shorties hence the cr*ppy bet size on the turn.

Still puzzling over whether I should be in this spot in the first place.
I know GTO (chipEV) can mix limps around 7/8BB w. J8s, as an exploit even more so as I don't get punished for limping often enough in these games - though this guy probably does ISO more than most players I'm guessing.

jonasz warzecha · Aug 15, 2026

Shove on the flop

monkeytilter · Aug 15, 2026

jonasz warzecha said:
Shove on the flop

I think that makes his decisions too easy?If I shove. he'll fold all but the best hands (some which beat me) and best draws (which have good equity if he gets to see turn and river).

I'm trying to get value here from the mass of worse hands he can continue with.

If this wasn't an ICM spot (say middle of tourney), I'd bet small, bet small, shove river.

If he'd have raised me on the flop then I would have gone all in and good luck😆

fundiver199 · Aug 15, 2026

With 7,5BB you should not have a limping range but jam or fold preflop. As played thats a really nasty river, since any A or 9 now has a straight. Seems fine to check-fold.

monkeytilter · Aug 15, 2026

fundiver199 said:
With 7,5BB you should not have a limping range but jam or fold preflop. As played thats a really nasty river, since any A or 9 now has a straight. Seems fine to check-fold.

Do you mean no limp range as we are now under ICM?

Semprini · Aug 15, 2026

Oof, that's gross. I think that you bet too small, at least on the turn. If it folded to you on SB you should have opened. There are just too many straights here and he certainly drew cheap enough.

I suppose that the question is whether you want to jam J8s pre SB into BB at this point or not.

fundiver199 · Aug 15, 2026

monkeytilter said:
Do you mean no limp range as we are now under ICM?

I mean no limping range since you are well under 10BB. Even with 15BB you should mostly open shove from SB, when there is ICM-pressure. Maybe you can limp in on very passive players with 10-15BB, but any sort of decent player will punish it by jamming and putting you in the ICM-bin. Its one of the few situations, where its actually good to act first, because it gives you a chance to be the one jamming rather than folding. When stacks are equal, you fold junk and walk BB, if you have more chips, you jam any two cards and print a massive amount of chips.

Semprini · Aug 15, 2026

monkeytilter said:
I tried to leave a workable stack behind compared to other shorties hence the cr*ppy bet size on the turn.

At 7.5bb there is no workable stack behind.

monkeytilter said:
I know GTO (chipEV) can mix limps around 7/8BB w. J8s, as an exploit even more so as I don't get punished for limping often enough in these games

At normal stack depths, maybe.

monkeytilter said:
I'm trying to get value here from the mass of worse hands he can continue with.

But you're not playable on the river. From the screenshot, on the pot is over twice your stack. Your only value sizing on the turn is all-in.

CNXRegie · Aug 15, 2026

monkeytilter said:
CC Freeroll, 4 Paid:
View attachment 414434

I limp SB, min stab flop and 2BB bet turn, check river - get shoved on - can I ever call??
Folded and ITM for 4th.

I start 7.5BB eff.
Was tangling with aggy big stack the ICM mistake from the get go?

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That's one thing I still need to inculcate in my stubborn mind, ICM. Most of the time, I tend to forget the value of my chips and don't even care if I bubbled. Not a very good habit.

Lodestone · Aug 16, 2026

monkeytilter said:
Still puzzling over whether I should be in this spot in the first place.

I don't think so. IMO this is an easy shove even without antes. Against an aggressive player with a big chip lead you're going to get pushed off of so many strong but non-nutted hands they aren't worth playing. The payout structure also lends itself more to aggressive higher variance play.

Think about other runouts- are you calling 4 to a flush on the board? Are you calling with 2 pair with 3 to a straight on the board? Too many ugly spots to call off for your life.

Mohamedkolea · Aug 16, 2026

monkeytilter said:
CC Freeroll, 4 Paid:
View attachment 414434

I limp SB, min stab flop and 2BB bet turn, check river - get shoved on - can I ever call??
Folded and ITM for 4th.

I start 7.5BB eff.
Was tangling with aggy big stack the ICM mistake from the get go?

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Calling here risks your entire tournament life while a shorter stack is right next to you. By folding, you secure your chips, let the pressure remain on yomomma420, and ladder up in prize money. You must fold anny 9.A. Kj Jt Qj win its a lot of hands

monkeytilter · Aug 16, 2026

fundiver199 said:
I mean no limping range since you are well under 10BB. Even with 15BB you should mostly open shove from SB, when there is ICM-pressure. Maybe you can limp in on very passive players with 10-15BB, but any sort of decent player will punish it by jamming and putting you in the ICM-bin. Its one of the few situations, where its actually good to act first, because it gives you a chance to be the one jamming rather than folding. When stacks are equal, you fold junk and walk BB, if you have more chips, you jam any two cards and print a massive amount of chips.

Ok we'll have to disagree on the general 'shove/fold SB under 10BB', that sounds very old school and restricts our SB range significantly, missing out on many profitable spots completing the SB.

Modern theory has SB limps all the way down to around 5BB. As I said to @Jonas if this wasn't an ICM spot I can bet,bet and shove river profitably here I think (with the low SPR I can get enough value from villain's better 1 pair hands)

Back to this as an ICM spot. I agree SB limping range should be restricted and possibly disappear altogether at this depth, I think this is why I got into trouble here.

I can see I need to study 'calibration' now with regard to at what stack depth I start restricting limps and which limped hands do I drop (J8s is a mixed limp at 7.5BB - not that you accept that😄 - maybe it should be one of the first to be dropped as a limp under ICM).

koalapanda · Aug 16, 2026

Great fold! With only 7.5BB left and ICM pay jumps active, folding the river to a big stack's shove was the right play to lock up 4th place. No need to risk your tournament life there with medium showdown value on a coordinated board.

monkeytilter · Aug 16, 2026

Lodestone said:
I don't think so. IMO this is an easy shove even without antes. Against an aggressive player with a big chip lead you're going to get pushed off of so many strong but non-nutted hands they aren't worth playing. The payout structure also lends itself more to aggressive higher variance play.

Think about other runouts- are you calling 4 to a flush on the board? Are you calling with 2 pair with 3 to a straight on the board? Too many ugly spots to call off for your life.

I think a shove is an ICM torch with the stack configuration, my only option is to fold if a limp isn't viable.

I disagree with the payouts rewarding aggressive play here. It's very flat, 1st is only 2.5x a 'min' cash?

Semprini · Aug 16, 2026

monkeytilter said:
Modern theory has SB limps all the way down to around 5BB. As I said to @Jonas if this wasn't an ICM spot I can bet,bet and shove river profitably here I think (with the low SPR I can get enough value from villain's better 1 pair hands)

But it IS an ICM spot. You have 7.5bb. You can't do that unless Villain is a brain dead calling station and is behind. Any good player will just put you all-in himself when he sees that you are unplayable.

If you open 2bb and get called, you have 5,5bb and the pot is 4bb. You have no more fold equity so you HAVE to hit or at least your J-high has to survive at showdown.

lwccasz · Aug 16, 2026

Considering that you were short (as was everyone else), on the flop an all-in in your position would be better. Enough to secure the pot and make the others fold.

monkeytilter · Aug 16, 2026

Semprini said:
But it IS an ICM spot. You have 7.5bb. You can't do that unless Villain is a brain dead calling station and is behind. Any good player will just put you all-in himself when he sees that you are unplayable.

If you open 2bb and get called, you have 5,5bb and the pot is 4bb. You have no more fold equity so you HAVE to hit.

Yes it is, I was just responding to why I didn't shove the flop and how I would play it non-ICM and.. that is why I asked @fundiver199 to clarify why they "never limp" here, and they said because <10BB, not specifically <10BB and under ICM, I was just addressing their more general (non-ICM) point.

ICM or Non-ICM, I would "never" min open here, that is pointless, the only options would be fold, limp or shove. (*Never say never, min raises could still be +ev vs uber-nits!!).

Villain is a brain dead calling station and is behind

I wouldn't go that far

..but these are very soft recreational games, players are definitely not correctly Iso-ing on the BB (can be a double edged sword as they can turn up with hands they "shouldn't have" as a pre-flop check back)

fundiver199 · Aug 16, 2026

monkeytilter said:
Ok we'll have to disagree on the general 'shove/fold SB under 10BB', that sounds very old school and restricts our SB range significantly, missing out on many profitable spots completing the SB.

Ok so GTO Wizard limp 13,4% of hands in Chip EV mode with 7BB, but realistically how much value does that actually add, when the program is jamming 64,3% of hands? And are you implementing this correctly, which mean limping 99+, a few suited connectors and a little bit of junk? My guess is, you are probably not. So you will likely be playing better by making a very small simplification and either push or fold.

Besides this is not Chip EV, and for that reason it might be profitable to jam basically any two cards, if the Villain fold as much, as he is supposed to. Whereas if you limp and get jammed on, you need to fold anything other than those limp "traps" with 99+. I will say though, that if the Villain is very passive, maybe you can get away with limping any junk and then stab the flop and pick it up a ton. But this only works against someone, who is completely clueless on how to play in ICM-spots.

monkeytilter · Aug 16, 2026

fundiver199 said:
Ok so GTO Wizard limp 13,4% of hands in Chip EV mode with 7BB, but realistically how much value does that actually add, when the program is jamming 64,3% of hands? And are you implementing this correctly, which mean limping 99+, a few suited connectors and a little bit of junk? My guess is, you are probably not. So you will likely be playing better by making a very small simplification and either push or fold.

Ok we are going off track from the ICM question part of the post, but I had to correct your blanket statement about SB play <10% chipEV.

You've picked on 7BB @13.4%, yes that's very significant! We don't need to play GTO perfect to see a reasonable benefit IMHO, a simple limp-stab favourable flops prints (Anecdotally I dropped "shove/fold" years ago for ROFL and saw a big jump in my results).. and preflop it's simple to execute: limp big pairs and some of the suited "middling" and "junk" with a clear plan what to call/fold - we don't need to be "perfect" with the "balancing" hands.

If you look at 10/9/8BB play GTO has ~27/23/16% limp, we can't hand wave those away as a "very small simplification"?

Besides this is not Chip EV, and for that reason it might be profitable to jam basically any two cards, if the Villain fold as much, as he is supposed to. Whereas if you limp and get jammed on, you need to fold anything other than those limp "traps" with 99+.

Agreed most villains under defend to jams. 2 things at play though, I think this villain will call wide ("with his big stack" and he has been very active) and it's a disaster(?) to get it in bad when there are short stacks present likely to make egregious ICM errors.

I think getting my limp jammed on here is not that terrible, 0.5BB lost.. next hand, jam-lose.. exit=terrible.
I still have the question should I limp j8s @7.5BB under ICM, I'm heavily leaning toward not now, but it's hard to discuss as you don't agree with limping at all under <10BB.

I think for now I will keep my GTO(ish) SB short limps but need to study what happens to them under ICM. (Probably trivial at 7.5BB but 12BB etc. it gets interesting with 40% limp!)

Semprini · Aug 16, 2026

fundiver199 said:
I will say though, that if the Villain is very passive, maybe you can get away with limping any junk and then stab the flop and pick it up a ton. But this only works against someone, who is completely clueless on how to play in ICM-spots.

Yup.

Semprini said:
But it IS an ICM spot. You have 7.5bb. You can't [get three streets of value] unless Villain is a brain dead calling station and is behind.

monkeytilter said:
(Anecdotally I dropped "shove/fold" years ago for ROFL and saw a big jump in my results).

Interesting that not only have I found the exact opposite but I also tend to destroy players who who are still limpy with <10bb.

monkeytilter said:
If you look at 10/9/8BB play GTO has ~27/23/16% limp, we can't hand wave those away as a "very small simplification"?

Yes we can. Your hand is from a freeroll. Who else is playing GTO here? Exploit! Exploit!

monkeytilter said:
Agreed most villains under defend to jams. 2 things at play though, I think this villain will call wide ("with his big stack" and he has been very active) and it's a disaster(?) to get it in bad when there are short stacks present likely to make egregious ICM errors.

Then just fold pre. A 7.5bb stack doubles up better than a 7bb stack in a better spot and if there are antes going on, you need to jam SOON! Don't fool around. If he calls you wide (as you say, but pardon me, ahem, checks it closed!) you will have no read on him for the flop so you better hit it.

monkeytilter · Aug 16, 2026

Semprini said:
Your hand is from a freeroll. Who else is playing GTO here? Exploit! Exploit!

The exploit is limp and stab. As @fundiver199 pointed out the majority GTO play here is shove/fold. In better games villains will overfold.
In these we aren't getting ISO'd enough - so we are exploiting that.

Semprini said:
Then just fold pre. A 7.5bb stack doubles up better than a 7bb stack in a better spot and if there are antes going on, you need to jam SOON! Don't fool around.

Yes I have come to the conclusion fold pre. talking it through here.
BTW I am under less pressure than the short stacks, so "SOON" is less soon for me than them.
ICM pressure on them means I don't need to be jam happy?

Semprini said:
If he calls you wide (as you say, but pardon me, ahem, checks it closed!)

I meant he calls shoves wide.. not he "calls" a limp ..you're pardoned

Semprini said:
you will have no read on him for the flop so you better hit it.

No, that is the fit or fold thinking I am looking to exploit in villain.
He is somewhat capped as he has not shoved or raised pre, I now just need him not to hit the flop (the norm at hold 'em) rather than me hit the flop.
Most players do not continue correctly vs the limp-min stab (to be fair some correct continues are very counterintuitive).

This could be why you have seen better results with shoving rather than having a short SB limp range as you haven't grasped this dynamic?

martinoni · Aug 16, 2026

In this spot I think either call or fold is correct

monkeytilter · Aug 16, 2026

martinoni said:
In this spot I think either call or fold is correct

Ok so you're saying it's close?

I do think I am ahead here slightly more often than not, but if I get it wrong I'm eliminated and $0.

I think if the payouts were spread more "conventionally" and more money "up top" I would have gambled and got it in (most likely on the turn) risking losing a min cash vs having a better shot at 1st.

ICM Spot, Can I ever call?

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