AKQ
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Bronze Level
- Joined
- May 27, 2007
- Total posts
- 9,670
- Awards
- 10
- Poker Chips
- 543
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- 0
- #1
Streak theory is a concept for mtts I am developing .
The idea of putting in High volume is to reduce those bad streaks over time.
We see the wild streaks sometimes,
as an impossibility.
So for a 1st place finish in an mtt of 100 players with starting stacks of 1k chips.
To go from 1k to 100k we can theorize the journey.
Lets do a virtual mtt streak theory
And let's track the amount of steps
#1.
1k jams and steals +19% of to the stack=
#2
1191 defends big blind and takes 70=
#3
1261 doubles up ak vs 22 +10%overlay=
2750. 50% to win
#4
Defends big blind
2750 +250
#5
3k loses all in of 1.5k ak vs qq = 50%
#6
1.5k steals bb 150
#7
1650 doubles up kk vs 44 3300 +250 overlay 80% to wi
#8
3550 defends big blind and loses 550
#9
3000 flips ak vs 77. 50%to win
#10
6250 steals bb 300 65% to win
#11
6550 doubles up ak vs 99. 50 % to win
13k
#12
13k doubles up 88 vs ak. 50% to wi
#13
26k jams and splits ak vs ak 4 % to lose
#14
26k aa vs kk 80 % to wi
#15
53k
LOSES 10K AA VS 22
43k
#16
3 way all in 43k kk vs 76 vs qq
100k 1st place
Lets exam this concept and not scrutinize the steps details yet...
7 steps have a 50/50 flip
1/2 ×1/2=1/4
×1/2= 1/8
×1/2=1/16
+1/2=1/32. 4 steps so far
1/2×1/32=1/64
1/2+1/64=1/128
1/2×1/128= 1/256
So the odds of winning 7 flips in a row with 50% odds is 0.39%
To be continued
The idea of putting in High volume is to reduce those bad streaks over time.
We see the wild streaks sometimes,
as an impossibility.
So for a 1st place finish in an mtt of 100 players with starting stacks of 1k chips.
To go from 1k to 100k we can theorize the journey.
Lets do a virtual mtt streak theory
And let's track the amount of steps
#1.
1k jams and steals +19% of to the stack=
#2
1191 defends big blind and takes 70=
#3
1261 doubles up ak vs 22 +10%overlay=
2750. 50% to win
#4
Defends big blind
2750 +250
#5
3k loses all in of 1.5k ak vs qq = 50%
#6
1.5k steals bb 150
#7
1650 doubles up kk vs 44 3300 +250 overlay 80% to wi
#8
3550 defends big blind and loses 550
#9
3000 flips ak vs 77. 50%to win
#10
6250 steals bb 300 65% to win
#11
6550 doubles up ak vs 99. 50 % to win
13k
#12
13k doubles up 88 vs ak. 50% to wi
#13
26k jams and splits ak vs ak 4 % to lose
#14
26k aa vs kk 80 % to wi
#15
53k
LOSES 10K AA VS 22
43k
#16
3 way all in 43k kk vs 76 vs qq
100k 1st place
Lets exam this concept and not scrutinize the steps details yet...
7 steps have a 50/50 flip
1/2 ×1/2=1/4
×1/2= 1/8
×1/2=1/16
+1/2=1/32. 4 steps so far
1/2×1/32=1/64
1/2+1/64=1/128
1/2×1/128= 1/256
So the odds of winning 7 flips in a row with 50% odds is 0.39%
To be continued
