MicroCrushers Thread!!!!!

[Cafeman]

Why would we include future money WE put into the pot?

 

[micromachine]

Pot odds as a % is: size of call divided by size of pot after your call.

From Wikipedia "pot odds" page:

Odds are most commonly expressed as ratios, but converting them to percentages will often make them easier to work with. The ratio has two numbers: the size of the pot and the cost of the call. To convert this ratio to the equivalent percentage, we add these two numbers together and then divide the cost of the call by this sum. For example, the pot is $30, and the cost of the call is $10. The pot odds in this situation are 30:10, or 3:1 when simplified. To get the percentage, we add $30 and $10 to get a sum of $40 and then divide $10 by $40, giving us 1/4, or 25%.

 

[Cafeman]

OK

 

[Yoshimiii]

Books such as Dan harrington on holdem cash games teach all about pot odds, I recommend reading them.

 

[Matt Vaughan]

One of these days I will write up a damn CC post on expected value so people can understand where the hell "break-even" concepts come from.

 

[Cafeman]

Just put us straight with this example Scourrgey.

I think we need to plan on getting more on the river than MM does (in order to at least BE on our implied odds turn call), for the reasons stated. Can you explain why this is or is not the case? No copy and pasting formulas, or sections of Wikipedia, just apply yourself to the example in this thread

 

[Cafeman]

Perhaps also take a look at this post to see where the errors in my thinking are:-

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/drawing-nuts-201952/

Basically we have a situation where we assume we have no FE and 20% equity, so it's down to how much we need to extract from villain by the river in order to make our call on a previous street worthwhile.

Have I been mistaken all this time?

 

[Cafeman]

And while we're at it, here's a post that might be of interest to some of you when we need to make assumptions about FE being non zero:-

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cas.../400-nlhe-full-ring-2-3-a-202372/#post1804961

 

[JOEBOB69]

What are you asking
In that older thread,FE is a hard thing to insert a accurate percentage imo.

 

[Cafeman]

What are you asking

OK, let's formalize it, and see if we can all agree (at least on the question if not on the answer).

We're assuming in MM's hand above that he is beaten atm, but that he has 20% equity (i.e. when he hits one of his 10 outs he's good).

How much does he need to make sure he extracts from villain on the river to make his implied odds call on the turn at least BE?

Bon voila.

 

[JOEBOB69]

final pot needs to be ~$6.5 to be BE right? So hero only needs to extract ~$1.40 on the river to make it profitable.

ummm doesn't look right though.

 

[orangepeeleo]

PokerStars - $0.16 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 138.69 BB
Hero (UTG): 113.38 BB
MP: 71.88 BB
CO: 116.94 BB
BTN: 111.06 BB
SB: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:club: Q:spade:

Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 3 BB

Flop: (8.5 BB, 2 players) T:diamond: 7:club: 3:spade:
BB checks, Hero bets 4.25 BB, BB calls 4.25 BB

Turn: (17 BB, 2 players) 8:spade:
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (17 BB, 2 players) Q:heart:
BB checks, Hero bets 8.75 BB, BB raises to 29 BB, Hero calls 20.25 BB

What do people think of this? Villain was 16/12/7 over 60ish hands

 

[Cafeman]

Is there that much bluff river raising going on to justify that call? You only beat a bluff.

 

[orangepeeleo]

Well the general rule is that river raises arent bluffs lol

But at the time, i thought that because I check the turn back, if he has a value hand like TT/77/33 he HAS to lead the river if he wants anymore money in the pot, because the chances of me checking the river back after checking the turn must be high right?

Then its like almost 1/3 pot I have to call so I only have to be right 20% of the time, plus he checked all 3 streets and it didnt really make sense for him to have a huge hand :/

 

[Cafeman]

Yeah I can see that reasoning, makes a lot of sense.

 

[Matt Vaughan]

vs a decent reg. I puked a bit


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

BB ($8.53)
Hero (UTG) ($8.18)
MP ($7.56)
CO ($5.17)
Button ($5.86)
SB ($17.72)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A

, A

Hero bets $0.17, 2 folds, Button calls $0.17, SB calls $0.15, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.56) A

, K

, 10

(3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.35, 1 fold, SB calls $0.35

Turn: ($1.26) Q

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.70, SB raises to $2, Hero calls $1.30

River: ($5.26) 7

(2 players)
SB bets $5.05, Hero folds

Total pot: $5.26 | Rake: $0.22

SB didn't show

Ok, assuming this is the hand we are talking about???

On the turn, there is $3.96 in the pot, and we are contemplating calling $1.30. We assume zero FE OTT or OTR, and assume villain has us beat unless the board pairs OTR. For the board to pair we need an A, K, Q, or T to come (for simplicity sake I'll ignore when we river a J and split the pot). So that's 10 outs. 10/46 = 21.74% equity.

We have to call $1.30 into $3.96, so we need to be good 1.3/(1.3+3.96) = 24.71% of the time to break even on a call, assuming no more action on the river (and that we fold

So we cannot make the call if don't get any action on a river card. We know that we only have 21.74% equity, so to figure out how much $$ we need to go into the pot on the river when we pair the board, we solve:

0.2174 = 1.3/(1.3+3.96+X)

Where X is the amount we need to get in on the river to breakeven.

(1.3+3.96+X) = 1.3/0.2174
(5.26+X) = 5.98
X = 0.72

So we only need 72 more cents to go into the pot on the river. So if you think SB bets anything or will call a bet of any reasonable size at least a decent % of the time, this is a snap-call OTT.

 

[Matt Vaughan]

I'll go through the EV later if anyone is confused.

 

[Cafeman]

Wow, so vs mini(ish) raises ott and we're good to call with all OESD and FDs IP knowing that villain will even call a smallish (but overall +EV making) vbet otr. I really thought we'd need more than that.

 

[Matt Vaughan]

Note that just because we can now profitably call the turn raise, does NOT mean that in all situations that will be true, and really getting into these spots sometimes means a mistake on an earlier street (obv not in this spot, but in others).

I need to do some more thinking about equity soon anyway, so I'll prob write something up in the near future.

 

[Cafeman]

Yes, but it does make certain spots more profitable calls than folds than I previously thought. FFS, I can't believe I'VE been folding too much!!!

 

[orangepeeleo]

Yeah I can see that reasoning, makes a lot of sense.

He had ATo but thought I'd put it up because didnt wanna be results orientated and be like yeah baby hero call ftw if it wasnt a good call lol

I've become a lot more stationey since I read poker math that matters lol I have his table in a sticky note on my screen (the how often we have to win to call an [insert fraction of pot] size bet) and people can just vbet mercilessly vs me as long as they make it like 1/3 or less lol

 

[Cafeman]

Don't get me wrong, I'm Mr Callriversitsnutsornothing myself

 

[orangepeeleo]

Yeah I think i'm the same lol if someone bets 1/3 pot or less i'm generally calling if I have sdv unless they're like some 69/5 dude I'm thinking "meh he's got a bluff in him somewhere, i only need to be good 20% of the time! I call!! fml its the nuts :'("

 

[Cafeman]

Haha, for sure calling's the new 5bet jam... we're ****ing rock stars!

 

[Matt Vaughan]

Yeah I think i'm the same lol if someone bets 1/3 pot or less i'm generally calling if I have sdv unless they're like some 69/5 dude I'm thinking "meh he's got a bluff in him somewhere, i only need to be good 20% of the time! I call!! fml its the nuts :'("

Laughing out loud at my computer screen like an idiot after reading this.