Rumme1 said:
I dont even like AK...even though it is considered a strong playing hand. IMHO..its just another crapshoot preflop hand in NL hold em.
So, you don't understand the value of shoving AK in the later stages of MTTs when stacks are shallow?
Maybe you don't understand the value of shoving in general when stacks are shallow late in an MTT?
Shoving in a viable strategy in MTTs, depending on the situation. There is skill involved in knowing when to shove, what range to shove, and who to shove against. I won't deny that once all the money is in the middle, there is a bit of luck involved in what comes out on the flop, turn, and river.
However, depending on the situation and all things considered, sometimes shoving all-in is the best way to get value for your hands. When blinds are high and how stacks are shallow at 10-30 BBs, we need to take the best approach to extract the most value from our hands and sometimes getting your money in preflop is the best option.
Poker isn't a game of hand vs hand. It's ranges vs ranges and if you're getting your money in situations where your range > your opponents range or your range < opponents range, but you're still in a +EV situation, then you'll profit in the long run. In MTTs, this especially true as we often need to take situations where we might have a small edge or be a slight underdog, but are still in a +EV situation. And recognizing these situation, again knowing when to shove, what range to shove, and who to shove against, takes a much deeper understanding of the game, which is a skill.
And if we take a look at the mathematical side of poker, as long as we're getting our money in most +EV situations, we profit in the long run. Especially if we're getting out money in +EV situations where we have tons of
equity.
If your equity is 70% vs 30% in a KK vs AKo situation and you play out said situation 10K times, you are expecting to profit over the long run. If we say we're bet $1 for each hand x 10K, and plug it into an EV formula, we can see that our
expected value is .40/hand. x 10K, that's $4K in profits.
Now, I know poker results aren't linear, but if graph this, we can see that straight, profitable EV line. However, the way poker is and with variance, our actual profit line would be all over the place and it's possible that our profit line could be above/below our EV line. Does this mean you're luckier/unluckier than other players if you're above/below? Not at all.
Sample size is also a factor. You can't expect to get a solid result without a decent sample size. Saying you're 78% of the time with KK means nothing if you've only been dealt KK 10x. Which is why I ask for a graph/proof your overall KK results. Mathematically, you should be profiting with KK in the long run, but it isn't impossible for you to be having some short term downswings with them. A graph would easily dispute my theories, but until I see one, I can not believe that you're actually losing 78% of the time with KK over a decent sample size. So, it's possible that:
-Your sample size is way too small.
-You play KK horribly every time. And since you don't like all-in crapshoots, you probably don't play them for stacks when necessary.
-You auto check/fold any A flop and lose tons of value on them
-You're so nitty that you only get called by opponents with AA when you do go all in
Again, this is just speculation. Please prove me wrong/yourself right by posting a graph or something of proof as your unfortunate luck with KK.
