my theory falls into 3 categories as why someone might claim online poker is rigged. it could be one of the reasons or a combination of all 3.
1. they don't understand variance, how it works, and how it can impact the result of a hand.
for example, lets say we take aks vs 67s, all-in preflop. lets say ak flops 2 pair, but 67 rivers a gutshot straight. must be a bad beat because they rivered a 4 outer, right? well, no because 67s is winning 40% of the time when the money is all-in preflop. that 40%
equity it has already combines all possible winable outcomes for 67s, including hitting a gut shot straight on the river.
2. they have feelings of things being unjust because some things work for others, but not for them. i see it all the time "donks hit 4 outers when i'm in a hand, but it never works for me" or "i can't hit when i have 16 outs, but these donks hit their miracle cards on the river all the time". here, they're looking at short term results (and also not understanding short term variance), instead of seeing the big picture, which is making +ev decisions over the long run. instead, they focus too much on individual hands or results. which is why you get people saying things like "i lost with aces 7x in a row, it must be rigged". what about all the other aces you've played before this? what about all the aces you're going to play in the next 1 million hands?
3. in mtts, they don't understand losses are going to be a huge part of the game. not only are mtts notoriously variance heavy, but you can expect to lose a lot when you play them. lets look at how much mtts are stacked against you:
a) you're going to bust out of more mtts than you cash. standard itm is between 10-20%, so you don't cash in 80-90/100 mtts you play.
b) you're going to lose money over large downswings are that inevitable in mtts. it's not uncommon to go on 20-40+ downswings or breakeven runs without a cash/significant cash. this is more so the larger the field and the less of and edge you have.
c) you're going to lose a lot of hands in key spots that'll bust you. in an mtt, you can get lucky and win 10 flips in a row, but the 11th flip you lose and competely busts you out of the tournament before you cash. it's brutal but that's how it is sometimes.
but mtts aren't about winning more hands than you lose or cashing in more games than you don't. it's about making +ev decisions so you profit in the long run. look at any good poker pro that has an itm of 20%, but still has millions in profits. how are they making so much if they only cash in 20% of their mtts? because they set themselves up to win/cash big when they do run good.
i believe ryan laplante said something along the lines of, when he plays live games, he'll go 6 months to a year of just downswings, then win 1 major mtt that'll bring him huge profits, then just repeat the process.
