Final Table Frequency

[crimsonshroud88]

I'll share my results over the last 4 days (Had a long vacation before that and wasn't really in the mood to play for some time after that, so previous results aren't that relevant).

Spoiler

I had time to play only 7 freerolls.

The worse the field plays, the more often you are in the final table.
Otherwise, this result (even though over the sample of 7) is almost statistically impossible. If you remember, how to calculate 95% confidence interval, feel free to do it since I forgot that stuff

 

[crimsonshroud88]

I've conducted a little experiment just to illustrate a general tendency.
(please feel free to correct me as I'm not a professional statistician).

If we completely exclude poker skill, then each of the players has an equal chance to finish first or last, as it's purely random.

My average field size happened to be 264 players over the last 7 freerolls.
I generated 7 totally random finishing positions for me out of 264: 117,147,193,195,55,112,45.
Then I've computed 95% confidence intervals for both my actual results and the randomly generated one.
Here is the pic:

Spoiler

As you can see, we are 95% sure that my average finishing position should be between 78.6 and 167 when skill isn't taken into an account.
My actual game results though suggest that we are 95% sure that my rank should be 1.7 to 45.5 .
Yes, this was an oversimplification but still

 

[619Leafs]

Getting to the final table for me is difficult especially if there is a field of more than a 1000.

 

[Poker_Mike]

Getting to the final table for me is difficult especially if there is a field of more than a 1000.

It ain't easy!

But, boy is it worth it....that's where ALL the prize money is!

Good luck...