This guy has 80% VPIP and 80% aggression and open raises 20%.....the guy raises and bets for fun...
I really would be interested to hear John's opinion on this since i personally strongly disagree with this reasoning. Firstly 20% open raises over 30 hands. That's only 6 hands he's open raised! So i wouldn't assign him a "20% opening range" necessarily from such a small sample. Over 300 hands there is a strong possibility you'll find he may actually only be opening 10% or even less. The sample is just too small to conclude anything about his opening range and hence you cannot say "he would have raised any pocket pair preflop" since those hands are still in his calling range, and don't forget that someone's 3betting range tends to be stronger than their open raising range. The 80% VPIP is much more conclusive since it's a lot harder for such a high VPIP to be 'fluked' due to chance alone. So we know he's a fish, that's about it.
86% aggression here means 5 out of 6 opportunities he chose the aggressive option. that's probably just 6 opportunities in total. that stat needs more time to converge and could turn out to be 50% over a larger sample, (
it's happened to me before where i've made the mistake of overvaluing this stat over a small sample and paid the price which is why i warn you of it now). so whilst the villain's AFq may suggest aggression, he may actually turn out to be just be a typical average or passive fish. i'd have to actually SEE him making outrageous bluffs and massive overbets to justify calling the river there.
another thing to mention is that 86% aggression doesn't take into account HOW he's being aggressive, such as lines and betsizing. he could be minbetting a lot of pots but only overbet with the nuts. he could have had a great run of cards over those 6 hands where he had an opportunity to be aggressive. The line he took here is extremely strong, and you should take that into account in your decision rather than just "he's so bad and fishy".
This was a clear call for me we beat all sorts of 1 and weaker 2 pair hands and his shove screamed go away.
so you're saying villain might be "
bluffing" with a weaker two pair and is trying to force you off a better two pair? or has a jack and is trying to force you off two pair? seems unlikely imo. i guess he COULD be turning a weaker pair+gutter into a bluff but without knowing enough about the player besides an inconclusive sample of stats, it's hard to tell.
maybe you can look at your database and search all the hands of this player to find out exactly HOW this guy is being aggressive. Has he been 3x potting a lot, or just minbetting? i think HUD is a great tool but i think it's dangerous to rely too much on the stats especially if the sample size isn't very big.
having said all that, i'm obviously no expert this is just my opinion of the hand so i think we should wait until John can give his professional opinion. it's an interesting hand and i think hearing John's opinion could benefit us both
