🎲 CardsChat Casino Learning Series
Craps – Part 4 of 4 - How to Play Craps Smart: Understanding the Math Behind Every Bet
After inundating you with all that crazy math explaining Pass and Come bets, let’s dig into the rest of the numbers behind craps — and I promise you, this part is much simpler to follow than the last lesson!By the end of this article, you’ll have a solid foundation on:
- How the remaining bets work
- The math behind them
- Which bets give you the best value
- Which bets to avoid
🔍 Quick Refresher: Dice Probabilities
All calculations below assume a $10 wager.| Roll | Ways to Roll | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2 or 12 | 1 | 2.78% |
| 3 or 11 | 2 | 5.56% |
| 4 or 10 | 3 | 8.33% |
| 5 or 9 | 4 | 11.11% |
| 6 or 8 | 5 | 13.89% |
| 7 | 6 | 16.67% |
💥 The Rest of the Bets (And the Math Behind Them)
🎯 Field Bet
What it is:Betting that the next roll is 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, or 12.
Payout:
- 2 or 12 → 2:1
- All others → Even money
- 2 & 12 → 5.56% chance → Win $20
- 3, 4, 9, 10, 11 → 38.89% chance → Win $10
- 5, 6, 7, 8 → 55.56% chance → Lose $10
👉 Fun short-term bet. Not a long-term winner.
🎲 Free Odds (Best Bet on the Table)
What it is:An additional bet placed behind your Pass or Come bet that the point will be made before a 7.
You can:
- Increase it
- Decrease it
- Remove it before resolution
Payouts (True Odds):
- 4 or 10 → 2:1
- 5 or 9 → 3:2
- 6 or 8 → 6:5
This is the only bet on the table paid at true mathematical odds.
It doesn’t overcome the house edge on your Pass/Come bet — but it lowers your overall house edge significantly.
👉 Always take free odds.
🎲 Big 6 / Big 8
What it is:Betting that a 6 or 8 rolls before a 7.
Payout: Even money
True Odds: 6:5
Expected Value: -$0.27
This is basically a worse version of a Place 6 or 8 bet.
👉 Skip it and place the number instead.
🎯 Place Bets
What it is:Betting a specific number (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10) will roll before a 7.
You choose the number — unlike Free Odds, which is tied to the point.
Payouts:
- 6 or 8 → 7:6
- 5 or 9 → 7:5
- 4 or 10 → 9:5
Ranges from -$0.05 to -$0.17 per $10
These are among the better bets on the table outside of Free Odds.
👉 Strong option, especially 6 and 8.
💎 Hardways
Hard 4 / Hard 10
What it is:Betting on doubles (2-2 or 5-5) before:
- A 7
- The “easy” version (1-3, 3-1 or 4-6, 6-4)
Expected Value: -$0.28
Hard 6 / Hard 8
What it is:Betting on 3-3 or 4-4 before:
- A 7
- An easy 6 or 8
Expected Value: -$0.28
👉 Fun sweat bets. Not strong mathematically.
⚠️ Proposition Bets (High House Edge)
Any 7
What it is:Betting the next roll is a 7.
Payout: 4:1
True Odds: 5:1
Expected Value: -$1.67
This is the worst bet on the table.
👉 Avoid completely.
Any 11
Payout: 15:1True Odds: 17:1
Expected Value: -$1.11
Any Craps (2, 3, 12)
Payout: 7:1True Odds: 8:1
Expected Value: -$1.11
Horn Bet
A four-number combo bet on 2, 3, 11, 12 — evenly split.Payouts:
- 2 or 12 → 30:1
- 3 or 11 → 15:1
Expected Value: -$1.25
👉 Flashy. Exciting. Drains bankroll fast.
💥 Best Bets to Take
Now that math class is over…🥇 1. Free Odds
The best bet in the casino. Zero house edge.🥈 2. Place 6 & 8
Solid payouts and frequent hitters.🥉 3. Place 5 & 9
Still respectable.Big 6/8? Just place them instead.
🚫 Bets to Avoid
If we’re being purely mathematical:- Any 7 – Biggest long-term loss
- Horn Bets – Complicated and expensive
- Any 11 / Any Craps – Poor payout vs. true odds
🎯 Overall Summary
Craps is one of the wildest, loudest, most action-packed games in the casino. The number of bets is overwhelming at first. A 7 can be your best friend… and one roll later your worst enemy.But when you break it down? It’s all probability.
Once you understand:
- Which bets pay true odds
- Which ones carry higher house edges
- How expected value works
💬 What Did You Learn?
What surprised you the most?Do you stick to the “smart bets,” or do you like mixing in some action plays?
Drop your favorite craps strategies in the comments — and let’s keep the loudest game in the casino rolling.
