Getting "priced in"

yep, full tilt? are there 9 or 10 of us on?

Im down.

We should do 6 handed so you're always getting your 5:1.

Bacon

Cowboy8112 said:

well, you can disagree all you want. If everyone played the same way tournaments would NEVER end. as for me, I will put my money in the pot everytime I am invited in

Click to expand...

Wrong again, Cowboy. Tournaments would inevitably end because of the escalating blind structure. Nobody's saying everybody has to play the same. Creativity is good. But in the specific scenario you mention, we've given overwhelming evidence that it's simply a negative eV play - therefore a bad play. You don't agree, although you provide no cogent argument to the contrary, and say you want to do it anyway. So do it.

Do you track your stats? You could change a few minds if you could show some evidence that over the long term you're making money in this situation. I suspect you're using selective memory. You've had a time or two where this has really worked out for you so you're convinced it's the way to go.

But like I said, I think the 20% scenario itself is pretty darned rare. I doubt if there are many hands in your database that correspond to this scenario. And if it's a much smaller call - like a limpers' pot or a blind completion with five players - that's a different scenario. Still probably an overall loser for the same statistical reasons, although the smaller risks might justify the big implied odds. I'd probably call $50 or maybe $80 in this situation, but that's not the same as calling $300.

It's a strange situation here. You have person after person trying to help you see the flaws in your reasoning (I'm pretty sure even your supporters are being sarcastic). But you just don't want to budge.

The great thing about it is you have the right to do whatever the hell you want, so keep shipping that 20% whenever you think it's a good investment.

I went to your website. Do I have to buy a whole package of meat or can I just buy some bacon? Looks like you have a good operation. Does all bacon have nitrates? My wife's had cancer twice and we're trying to stay away from all that stuff.

Gary

I think it sounds like youre just trying to get lucky too much. Call it what you want but thats how it looks. As someone else said 300 preflop raise to start a tourney is not a normal raise, that looks like someone who has AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 1010 that does not want to get sucked out on. You want to call that with 27o???

Come sit at my table any day..........

Gary,
You are hung up on the 20% thing way too much re read the post. 20% is the MAX I would risk. I am not suggesting you put 20% of your chips into the 1st hand of every tournament if you start on the BB. I stand firm on this, if you are in position and at least 5 people have entered the pot it is NOT a bad play to call and see the flop.

Ah, but you're changing your argument now. You just said "if you are in position". In the BB you are certainly not in position.

But even in position you need some sort of a hand to make the call. A pair or some SCs are fine. 72o, or some equally trashy hand is not, as despite needing to call 300 for a 1500 pot you do not have pot odds.

If 10 people put money in infront of me instead of 5 am i allowed to put 40% of my stack in with 9,3??

In the BB you will be the LAST person to make a move. So calling the raise that 5 or more other people is the right move as long as its for less than 20% of your chips.
Switch........what are you talking about?

Cowboy8112 said:

Starting a tournament in the blinds or on the button is everyones favorite place to start for obvious reasons. However, for me there is another reason. I am more likley to get priced into a hand even if position one raises. My rule of thumb is (and this can change depending on who is at my table) from BB SB or the Button, I will call up to 20% of my chips with ANY TWO CARDS. That is if I can get 5 to 1 or more on my money. Here is why. If I hit I can make take alot of chips and give the impression that I am a fish or very loose with my calls and that can make me even more money later. If I don't hit I can fold and still have 4/5ths of my chips. I do not recommend calling 20% of your chips with out a hand if you have more than 2 players behind you.

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If you are willing to call off 20% of your chips in the first hand of a tourney , say with a 5 7 os. just because 3 other players are in the pot you are not very bright. This will fail you alot more than it will work. A random hand like that shrinks up the more players you are against.

Cowboy8112 said:

In the BB you will be the LAST person to make a move. So calling the raise that 5 or more other people is the right move as long as its for less than 20% of your chips.
Switch........what are you talking about?

Click to expand...

You are also the FIRST OR SECOND TO ACT AFTER THE FLOP WHICH IS WHERE THE BETTING MATTERS. YOU SHOULD ONLY CALL STRONG STARTING HANDS FROM THIS POSITON WHEN FACED WITH A RAISE FROM EARLY POSITION

Cowboy8112 said:

In the BB you will be the LAST person to make a move. So calling the raise that 5 or more other people is the right move as long as its for less than 20% of your chips.
Switch........what are you talking about?

Click to expand...

Switch was making a joke.

And Philber is right, in the BB you are only last to act pre-flop, you will be out of position for the rest of hand.

If you limped with for instance 7s/2c in a 6 way pot from the big blind and the flop comes out 7d 2d kd. now what? you have commited up to 20% of your stack and are now out of position you can lead but with that many limpers anyone could have anything. Is two pair strong enought to bet? A reasonalbe 1/2-3/4 pot bet will almost for sure get you pot commited and a possible made flush or higher two pair or even a set.

When player talk about position they talk about in reference to post flop not preflop usually (ie. late, midlle, early). Position matters most post flop. If you shove all in position is no longer a factor as there is no additional betting.

I hope I didn't ramble to much...

Re read it...........must be 5 not 3 callers and the 20% is the MAX and we are talking about preflop.....you need to re read the post

Hand #56310740-17 at 315pmFreeBD-190 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)
Started at 22/Aug/08 15:40:44

nascar20048 is at seat 0 with 0 (sitting out).
megfogtum is at seat 1 with 6595.
quietjosh is at seat 2 with 1190.
trnyplyr is at seat 3 with 1875.
Davemlaw is at seat 4 with 960.
saladfinger is at seat 5 with 1655.
Cowboy8112 is at seat 6 with 4240.
nedmun02 is at seat 7 with 1700.
billgerr is at seat 8 with 1250.
GARY022 is at seat 9 with 1395.
The button is at seat 5.

Cowboy8112 posts the small blind of 15.
nedmun02 posts the big blind of 30.
megfogtum: -- --
quietjosh: -- --
trnyplyr: -- --
Davemlaw: -- --
saladfinger: -- --
Cowboy8112: Qd 5h
nedmun02: -- --
billgerr: -- --
GARY022: -- --
Pre-flop:

billgerr folds. GARY022 folds. megfogtum calls.
quietjosh folds. trnyplyr calls. Davemlaw folds.
saladfinger calls. Cowboy8112 calls. nedmun02
checks.
Flop (board: 8c Qh 6h):

Cowboy8112 bets 150. nedmun02 folds. megfogtum
folds. trnyplyr folds. saladfinger folds.
Cowboy8112 is returned 150 (uncalled).

Hand #56310740-17 Summary:

No rake is taken for this hand.
Cowboy8112 wins 150.

This is an example, I wont usually play Q5 o, but I was getting 5 to 1 hit a Q and took the pot

Cowboy8112 said:

Re read it...........must be 5 not 3 callers and the 20% is the MAX and we are talking about preflop.....you need to re read the post

Click to expand...

Who was this directed at? I said a 6 way pot which is equal to 5 limpers and you.

Cowboy8112 said:

Hand #56310740-17 at 315pmFreeBD-190 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)
Started at 22/Aug/08 15:40:44

nascar20048 is at seat 0 with 0 (sitting out).
megfogtum is at seat 1 with 6595.
quietjosh is at seat 2 with 1190.
trnyplyr is at seat 3 with 1875.
Davemlaw is at seat 4 with 960.
saladfinger is at seat 5 with 1655.
Cowboy8112 is at seat 6 with 4240.
nedmun02 is at seat 7 with 1700.
billgerr is at seat 8 with 1250.
GARY022 is at seat 9 with 1395.
The button is at seat 5.

Cowboy8112 posts the small blind of 15.
nedmun02 posts the big blind of 30.
megfogtum: -- --
quietjosh: -- --
trnyplyr: -- --
Davemlaw: -- --
saladfinger: -- --
Cowboy8112: Qd 5h
nedmun02: -- --
billgerr: -- --
GARY022: -- --
Pre-flop:

billgerr folds. GARY022 folds. megfogtum calls.
quietjosh folds. trnyplyr calls. Davemlaw folds.
saladfinger calls. Cowboy8112 calls. nedmun02
checks.
Flop (board: 8c Qh 6h):

Cowboy8112 bets 150. nedmun02 folds. megfogtum
folds. trnyplyr folds. saladfinger folds.
Cowboy8112 is returned 150 (uncalled).

Hand #56310740-17 Summary:

No rake is taken for this hand.
Cowboy8112 wins 150.

This is an example, I wont usually play Q5 o, but I was getting 5 to 1 hit a Q and took the pot

Click to expand...

This is basically a delayed steal, what do you if you are called? This hand could turn into a implied odds spew.

I <3 glworden's post.

Cowboy-that is such a bad example. That has nothing to do with what you are talking about and is a completely standard big stack call. Especially when you have to call 15 to win 135 or 9:1 on your money. But you are not risking 20% of your stack. Heck, you're risking <1% of your stack to make that call...standard all the way through and has nothing to do with risking 20% of your stack with a poor hand OoP.

Try again, plz.

Cowboy8112 said:

Hand #56310740-17 at 315pmFreeBD-190 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)

No rake is taken for this hand.
Cowboy8112 wins 150.

This is an example, I wont usually play Q5 o, but I was getting 5 to 1 hit a Q and took the pot

Click to expand...

Not going to criticize your play here, but this is nowhere near the parameters you said you were willing to go to in your original post. It's easy to call the 15 from the small blind. 15 is only .36% of your 4225 stack. That's POINT 36, or one third of one percent. You are second chip leader and have some leeway.

Yes, your lead out post flop bet is basically a steal attempt. What kind of re-raise would you call here? Are you just going to bet and fold, or chase further with your weak kicker and worst position?

I don't think your play on this hand is bad, but it's not the scenario you posted about. Even if you were to bring out an example where you hit the lottery hand, though, one result does not validate your approach. In fact - results never should. A playing decision is right or wrong based on eV, not on whether the outcome goes your way or not. I think it's silly when people rabbit hunt, find their miracle would or wouldn't have come, then say they were right in folding. They were right or wrong before the rabbit, regardless of outcome.

I don't think you're really here to learn, because nothing is getting through to you. Why do you think every single poster is trying to help you see your errors while you simply restate your theory? You're kind of getting it half right. Pot odds are important and always a consideration. But systematically ignoring all other factors and calling with a poor hand in worst position is rarely a good idea. Call with your 27o. The flop comes 772. FullHouse! Did you make a good play?
Gary

philthy said:

I <3 glworden's post.

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I'm not up on the computer jargon. What does <3 mean?

it is a heart as in "I love"

would you forget about the 20% for crying out loud.....thats the MAXIUM I would be willing to risk. READ THE POST!!!!!! or just stop replying to it

Cowboy8112 said:

would you forget about the 20% for crying out loud.....thats the MAXIUM I would be willing to risk. READ THE POST!!!!!! or just stop replying to it

Click to expand...

getting cranky

Cowboy8112 said:

would you forget about the 20% for crying out loud.....thats the MAXIUM I would be willing to risk. READ THE POST!!!!!! or just stop replying to it

Click to expand...

You keep saying that but haven't actually answered the questions that has been posed to you. You keep thinking we don't understand. We are pushing back with examples of when your strategy is a bad idea. If you want to revise what your op said then do so but don't keep saying "re read my post" as if that is an intelligent answer to legitimate questions.

and if you have not hit you fold up.....come on people this is BASIC stuff here

you know what cowboy, and bear with me on this one since it isn't finalized and im not sure, but i think just maybe, and its a strong maybe, that people may have realised your strategy sucks

p.s good luck next time you limp q,5 for 20% of your stack and stack off against a,q

Cowboy8112 said:

and if you have not hit you fold up.....come on people this is BASIC stuff here

Click to expand...

what is hitting, is two pair enough on painted board, top pair weak kicker?

Saying "if you have not hit fold up" is like me telling someone be aggressive. It is too vague to be meaningful.



I know I know, re-read your post.