how often can a good player expect to win?

greener_lax · Mar 7, 2008

my question is how many winning sessions can a winning player expect to have. obv there are a number of variables that can effect the answer, but im looking for a general response. when i say a session i mean 3 hours or so of playing. say i play 4 hours a day for a month, how many of those sessions can i expect to win? i know none of you know my skill level but i'd like to think im a well over avg player. just a general range would be very helpfull.

NoWuckingFurries · Mar 7, 2008

Well presumably you would need to win more often than you lose...

chardukian · Mar 7, 2008

Even great players win probably between 54-60% of their sessions. Meaning if you're playing 10 tables each time you sit down, each table is considered a session. The reason players can beat the games for a good amount when only winning 54% of their sessions is because they play longer when they are playing well and winning and cut sessions short if they are losing or not playing their A game. Dont be too results oriented. After a day of play don't worry about your results. Focus on your results some after say a 20k hand stretch. Hope this helps and answers your question

SavagePenguin · Mar 7, 2008

The general rule for live professional players is that they earn 1 BB per hour.

greener_lax · Mar 7, 2008

SavagePenguin said:
The general rule for live professional players is that they earn 1 BB per hour.

does that mean if i play .50 nl ill only make .50 an hour? im thinkin maybe it's a little different at higher stakes because there is a better quality of players.

i avg 6.12 bb an hour through 10 000 hands

aliengenius · Mar 8, 2008

NoWuckingFurries said:
Well presumably you would need to win more often than you lose...

This is not necessarily the case. You might lose most/more sessions, but if you make more money on your winning days you will still be a winning player. It's just like the hands themselves: winning players "lose" more hands than they win. In fact, there is an old poker saying "Whoever wins the most pots loses the most money."

flint · Mar 8, 2008

This is where the advantage of multi tabling comes up, if you play 2 or more tables at once it is much easier to balance beats by winning in other sessions. I think a winning player should be able to win money just about every session (Bostonguy, the 80% sounds good).

Generally, you should have a goal of profiting from every session, but you should be happy if you lost very little and be expecting to loose a bit now and then.

In terms of BB/100 hands it really does depend on the level and the player. As I went broke earlier, I have dropped down to 2c/4c tables on Party and I am making good money off them, all you have to remember that in no limit you can be loosing for hours and then with a couple of hands make back the losses plus a nice profit. The game at the level I am playing is poor and I have been able to adjust my reads, so I am making close to 50BB/h by 3 tabling it.

greener_lax · Mar 8, 2008

when someone says they win 6.12/100bb, does that mean big blind? not sure what big bets mean and is that exclusively for one table or for every table you're playing. sorry im new to pokertracker...

NoWuckingFurries · Mar 8, 2008

greener_lax said:
when someone says they win 6.12/100bb, does that mean big blind? not sure what big bets mean and is that exclusively for one table or for every table you're playing. sorry im new to pokertracker...

Yes, I find it confusing that sometimes people on this site say BB meaning big blind, and sometimes they say it meaning big bets... :dontknow:

flint · Mar 9, 2008

I guess in no limit it is big blinds per 100 hands and in limit it would be big bets (the bigger bets available usually at the turn and the river and often twice bigger than the earlier bets).

UFCcantstopme · Mar 9, 2008

If you are good,

Meaning better than average players. It depends on how many players are in the tourney, if there are 180, or 90 or in that range, i will say 180 player tourneys. Expect to win them, meaning 1st place, one in 8 times. You can probably place in top 18 about every time. i will say 5-7 times out of 8 you will place if you are good. For over 1000 player tournaments, dont get your hopes up, chances are you will lose from a bad beat or just a stupid play. Expect to win a 1000 player tournament, once every 15-25 times.

pokerjdud · Mar 9, 2008

ahh well i expect to win every time, but sometimes it deosnt work out that way, ur gonna have downswings, but you just have to play through it

bustme · Mar 9, 2008

I would say over 60% is good

greener_lax · Mar 9, 2008

UFCcantstopme said:
Meaning better than average players. It depends on how many players are in the tourney, if there are 180, or 90 or in that range, i will say 180 player tourneys. Expect to win them, meaning 1st place, one in 8 times. You can probably place in top 18 about every time. i will say 5-7 times out of 8 you will place if you are good. For over 1000 player tournaments, dont get your hopes up, chances are you will lose from a bad beat or just a stupid play. Expect to win a 1000 player tournament, once every 15-25 times.

no player in the world would be able to do this, not even close. winning 1 out of 8, are you crazy? maybe 1 in 30 for the best player in the world, and even then.

chardukian · Mar 9, 2008

When you use pokertracker, if you are winning 6.12bb/100 in NL it means you are winning 12.24 big blinds per 100 hands. In limit 6.12bb refers to the big bet. And whoever said a good player should win 80% of their sessions doesn't have any idea what they're talking about. Talk to some of the good online players and ask them. I've talked with Sbrugby, who was easily one of the biggest winners in 07 this same question and his answer was anything between 53-60%. Greener_lax, if you have other questions just pm me.

greener_lax · Mar 9, 2008

chardukian said:
When you use pokertracker, if you are winning 6.12bb/100 in NL it means you are winning 12.24 big blinds per 100 hands. In limit 6.12bb refers to the big bet. And whoever said a good player should win 80% of their sessions doesn't have any idea what they're talking about. Talk to some of the good online players and ask them. I've talked with Sbrugby, who was easily one of the biggest winners in 07 this same question and his answer was anything between 53-60%. Greener_lax, if you have other questions just pm me.

yes, i completely agree with you. when people were saying 80% i was like wtf lol. the one guy was talking about how a good player should win 1in 8 180 person mtt lol.

Jagsti · Mar 9, 2008

chardukian said:
When you use pokertracker, if you are winning 6.12bb/100 in NL it means you are winning 12.24 big blinds per 100 hands. In limit 6.12bb refers to the big bet. And whoever said a good player should win 80% of their sessions doesn't have any idea what they're talking about. Talk to some of the good online players and ask them. I've talked with Sbrugby, who was easily one of the biggest winners in 07 this same question and his answer was anything between 53-60%. Greener_lax, if you have other questions just pm me.

I concur ^^^^

flint · Mar 10, 2008

chardukian said:
I've talked with Sbrugby, who was easily one of the biggest winners in 07 this same question and his answer was anything between 53-60%.

Some of the said expectations were in fact too high, however it all comes down to stakes. At the .2/.4 level I have been winning every session since I have been rebuilding my BR (sessions are always about an hour with 3-4 tables). Of course the higher the action gets, the smaller the % win rate will be, at 200/400 55-60% will be very good if you approximately win and loose the same amount.

greener_lax · Mar 10, 2008

flint said:
Some of the said expectations were in fact too high, however it all comes down to stakes. At the .2/.4 level I have been winning every session since I have been rebuilding my BR (sessions are always about an hour with 3-4 tables). Of course the higher the action gets, the smaller the % win rate will be, at 200/400 55-60% will be very good if you approximately win and loose the same amount.

I agree with this. But at the same time, it doesn't matter what stakes, you're going to have losing sessions.

ChuckTs · Mar 10, 2008

As a ballpark number I'd say anything up to %60 would be excellent. To put it in perspective, I'm a winning full ring (25nl through 100nl, mostly 50nl and 100nl) player and have won %53 of my sessions.

This is a stat you really shouldn't be concerned with anyways - if you want to see how 'good' of a player you are, look at your winrate.

MrAnderson420 · Mar 11, 2008

Just won 7th @ Bodog freeroll

I dont win freerolls that often but @ bodog i had some really good competition. Just started there yesterday March 9th and I placed 7th in the freeroll. You gotta know when to holdem i guess!!! I win/cash just about 60% "GET YOUR CHIPS"

greener_lax · Mar 11, 2008

MrAnderson420 said:
I dont win freerolls that often but @ bodog i had some really good competition. Just started there yesterday March 9th and I placed 7th in the freeroll. You gotta know when to holdem i guess!!! I win/cash just about 60% "GET YOUR CHIPS"

so your saying you finisih in the money 60% of the time. that's funny, the best players in the world finish in the money 20% of the time. so your cashing 3 times as many as phil ivey. you should be playing in the wsop....

lionheart527 · Mar 11, 2008

It seems to be a general rule of thumb that the professional has to win at least 1 BB/hour. But in your case on these sites there will be times in your 4 hour period where nothing will go right for you so your win percentage really depends on your patience during these bad times "Laying down the tough hands" if you will

UnkNownJacks · Mar 11, 2008

24nd.

I believe that there are many factors that go into how often or whether or not a player wins a session. I believe that between 60-70% of the time is great for almost any player. However, suck outs do happen, and cold decks...among other things. I don't think any players have all winning sessions, but I believe that as long as you are profiting in your sessions you are doing something right.

If you are running like 389.1 BBs/hour, you aren't necessarily a good player, just a lucky player.

NoWuckingFurries · Mar 11, 2008

greener_lax said:
so your saying you finisih in the money 60% of the time. that's funny, the best players in the world finish in the money 20% of the time. so your cashing 3 times as many as phil ivey. you should be playing in the wsop....

I don't remember Phil Ivey playing the Bodog freerolls...

UnkNownJacks said:
24nd.

Or - as some people prefer to say - 24th.

how often can a good player expect to win?

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