19aleks57 said:
I believe that luck is the main component of poker, without it it is impossible to win a tournament.
This is just simply not true. Phil Hellmuth JR doesn't have 15 bracelets because he's the luckiest player on the planet. Chris Mooreman isn't an online crusher because he's the luckiest guy to sit behind a pc screen. Winners in this game dont win because they're luckier than other players...they win because they have an edge!
Players who are unwilling to accept the reality of the situation or to put in the hard work it takes to get/stay good at poker will find a crutch with the word "luck" and they will praise it when they win a tournament here or there and they will blame it when they bust on the money bubble or deep in a run.
Luck is nothing more than variance to me...and variance is a normal part of the game. If I won every single time I got it in with AK vs QJ or AK vs AT then the bad players would quickly go broke, stop playing and make the game significantly less profitable. Poker is all about making the correct decisions and following good strategies with cold hard math. I win lots of pots im not supposed to because of a number of things. I know which cards are good
bluff cards, I know how to range my villans, I know how to squeeze villans hand ranges, etc. I shovel my money in as much as possible when I am as large a favorite as the situation may dictate -- the runouts and the results are beyond my control and I dont sweat it when my AAs lose to JTs or AQo -- it doesn't matter because I am printing
equity in that spot and will win the long term which is all I tend to care about.
One day makes no difference - I busted every single MTT I played yesterday without a single cash and I dont care. It means NOTHING. A bad week means nothing, a bad month is generally nothing!! When you think about poker in the "long term" - if you've been playing online for 5 years (60 months) and you had 4 months that were unprofitable and now you're on. 2 month swing....so what?? That means that even in your current state you are up 54 months over that course of time! So two months should mean absolutely nothing to you because you play well enough to push through it. Not to mention most players don't put in the proper volume to overcome variance - you need to play roughly a minimum of 100 MTTs per month to help fade variance -- i do more than this working a full time job so its definitely possible if you are dedicated enough to do it.
Tons of variables interfere with whether or not we win tournaments. Normal variance is bad enough on its own - but playing in massive fields only increases the variance we are to face throughout so good game selection is KEY! Id rather play an $11 game with $800 up top and 500 entrants rather than play a $5 game with $1300 up top and 1600 entrants. Im going to cash/win the $11 game more often because the field is just smaller - and if i have the same edge in both fields, than I would have yo fade 3x the variance to win the $5 game. There are variance calculators online that will tell you how often you are going to win a tournament based on field size and your ROI% and a few other factors...you would be shocked if you use them.
Anyhow...poker is basically unwavering cold hard math - if you get your money in as a significant favorite over and over and over the majority of the time you are playing - then you will eventually win. It is inevitable because it is math and numbers do not lie.
Winning pots you are not supposed to win + getting your money in good = long term success.
In the words of Matt Affleck - "do you know the best way to preserve your tournament life? Keep accumulating chips!"