Hey guys, this is my graph for the month so far, almost all of it is at 25nl (mixed between 6-max and FR). I've read that looking at the EV difference is bad because it's a terrible indicator of luck. Can anybody tell me why that is? When I look at this graph, I actually feel good because it means I'm actually getting my money in good in most spots and just losing due to variance. Is this thinking incorrect? It's been a rough month so far but I'm sticking it out because I truly believe I can crush this level, just wondering what to think of the all-in ev difference. Anyway, I've switched to 25nl FR so if anyone wants to lend a hand whether it's in sweat sessions, articles, etc., hit me up.
It accounts for some luck obviously. But it doesn't account for set ups (KK vs AA, set vs TPTK/overpair, etc.) and it doesn't account for pots where you got most of the money in good, but when the last bet went in you were behind (for instance you have AA villain has QQ and villain calls you down on a xxxxQ board with the last bet going in on the river. You could be 97% to win on the turn and bet $1 on the river after villain hit his hand and have no change in all in EV even if the pot on the turn was $200). And these kind of situations occur more often than actual all in pots, although it depends on your style as some ppl will be more inclined to shove everything, rather than call down or whatever (if you call down and get sucked out on then it won't show up in an all in EV graph, even though range/line wise it may have been the most +EV thing to do). It also depends on the type of poker played. For instance, HU play has far more variables to luck (mostly due to greater metagame) IMO, which i think i said something about on the last page.
Bottom line, looking at EV graphs does nothing good, although when you are running like shit it does help you feel a little better (or possibly worse if you are really bad).
Bottom line, looking at EV graphs does nothing good, although when you are running like shit it does help you feel a little better (or possibly worse if you are really bad).
Well, some of my best days have been ones where i have been below EV, but have still run well (flopped good, good set ups or whatever). Like today, $1400 is well above "EV" for me over 1600 hands, but i still ran about $800 below all in EV. But OVERALL i ran good. And the same goes for the other case. Some of my worst days in which absolutely nothing went right at all and i was getting set up all day long, i was over all in EV. But OVERALL i ran bad.
Luck in poker is way too hard to quantify and there is no point in doing so. If you are going to play, then just play and what happens happens, and for the vast majority of ppl it will even out in the long run.
Luck in poker is way too hard to quantify and there is no point in doing so. If you are going to play, then just play and what happens happens, and for the vast majority of ppl it will even out in the long run.
Im now only ~1 buyin away from hitting break even at 100nl and can now firmly say that i have got past the adjusting stage and am now feeling good there. I'm by no means a big winner yet in terms of winrate at the level, but it feels good that i am currently winning at the level even though i have so many leaks in my game which need to be filled
Good work switch, moving up + running bad can be very difficult to overcome both monetarily but moreso emotionally, and really affects most peoples play. I think you play FR so I cant really speak to the level of play but from what I have read of your thought process I am sure you will be crushing the level in no time.
Lol, spastic 100NL 6max regs. This is in 2 consecutive hands vs the same guy
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker
BTN: $56.80 (56.8 bb)
SB: $167.90 (167.9 bb)
BB: $106.80 (106.8 bb)
Hero (UTG): $100 (100 bb)
MP: $105.60 (105.6 bb)
CO: $117.25 (117.3 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG with J
K
Hero raises to $4, MP folds, CO calls $4, 2 folds, BB raises to $17, Hero calls $13, CO folds
Flop: ($38.50) 4
K
5
(2 players)
BB bets $26, Hero calls $26
Turn: ($90.50) 8
(2 players)
BB bets $63.80 and is all-in, Hero calls $57 and is all-in
River: ($204.50) 3
(2 players, 2 are all-in)
Results: $204.50 pot ($3 rake)
BB showed Q
Q
(a pair of Queens) and lost (-$100 net)
Hero showed J
K
(a pair of Kings) and won $201.50 ($101.50 net)
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker
CO: $56.80 (56.8 bb)
BTN: $167.40 (167.4 bb)
SB: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (BB): $201.50 (201.5 bb)
UTG: $105.60 (105.6 bb)
MP: $113.25 (113.3 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with Q
A
2 folds, CO raises to $2, BTN calls $2, SB calls $1.50, Hero raises to $13, 2 folds, SB raises to $100 and is all-in, Hero calls $87
Flop: ($204) 5
2
6
(2 players, 1 is all-in)
Turn: ($204) 7
(2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($204) 9
(2 players, 1 is all-in)
Results: $204 pot ($3 rake)
SB showed A
J
(high card Ace) and lost (-$100 net)
Hero showed Q
A
(high card Ace) and won $201 ($101 net)
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker
BTN: $56.80 (56.8 bb)
SB: $167.90 (167.9 bb)
BB: $106.80 (106.8 bb)
Hero (UTG): $100 (100 bb)
MP: $105.60 (105.6 bb)
CO: $117.25 (117.3 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG with J
Hero raises to $4, MP folds, CO calls $4, 2 folds, BB raises to $17, Hero calls $13, CO folds
Flop: ($38.50) 4
BB bets $26, Hero calls $26
Turn: ($90.50) 8
BB bets $63.80 and is all-in, Hero calls $57 and is all-in
River: ($204.50) 3
Results: $204.50 pot ($3 rake)
BB showed Q
Hero showed J
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker
CO: $56.80 (56.8 bb)
BTN: $167.40 (167.4 bb)
SB: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (BB): $201.50 (201.5 bb)
UTG: $105.60 (105.6 bb)
MP: $113.25 (113.3 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with Q
2 folds, CO raises to $2, BTN calls $2, SB calls $1.50, Hero raises to $13, 2 folds, SB raises to $100 and is all-in, Hero calls $87
Flop: ($204) 5
Turn: ($204) 7
River: ($204) 9
Results: $204 pot ($3 rake)
SB showed A
Hero showed Q
bw07507 said:
pretty much what I told you in the micro's thread. Basically, stop being such a nit. Att. to Steal below 30% is a major leak, imo. And at 50NL FR, I don't think there's any reason it should be below 40%.
I think you'd benefit greatly from playing some 6-max for a while. Work on your postflop skills and playing a more positional game since most FR players play pretty solidly pre-flop but are abysmal postflop.