“Is poker still about skill, or just variance?”

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Elpadrotico

Elpadrotico

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Lately, I’ve seen a lot of players complaining that modern poker is just luck and solver wars.

But… has skill really stopped making the difference?

Back in the day, understanding ranges and ICM pressure was enough. Now it feels like if you’re not studying GTO every day, you’re invisible.

Personally, I still think skill matters, but the average level is just way higher now.


What do you think? Is poker today about studying harder… or praying harder? 😅
 
Poker has changed dramatically since its peak popularity. The emphasis has shifted to speed and mystery bounties. All this forces you to play situationally and move away from GTO strategy. You often see people open-flopping or even shoving any two hands from any position. So skill is good, but luck is essential these days.
 
As average skill increases, variance increases and game selection continues to become more important.
 
I have not tried solvers but they are a form of skill, a form of learning GTO theory. However much skill you have there is always going to be variance though as playing with odds and incomplete information.
 
I think discipline is the most important thing for me personally. After terrible sessions, don't tilt and don't try to win back. Play within your bankroll and do the right things.
 
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I think for most of us it's mostly about variance and luck. Maybe skill rules at the highest levels, but that's not where I play.
 
Of course it's about skill in the long-term. That's how the pros consistently place well. In the short-term variance matters more (anyone can get a good run, but that's part of the charm and appeal of the game), but overall poker is a skill game.
 
Variance will always exist, but skill among players makes the difference; that's where your profit percentage increases.
 
I think that to win you need luck, and skill too, but luck is what decides in the end.
 
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You depend on both. Luck helps at certain times, especially in tournaments with many players, but skill is what will give you good results in the long run.
 
The longer the perspective, the more important skill is.
IMO these days, online poker, with the possibilities of playing thousands of hands daily, helps the long perspective - skill is much more important than ever.
 
I don't think poker has changed much over the last 10-15 years. That's why you need to improve your skills every day to achieve success. I play poker by studying the psychology of the players, so I try to take chips from my opponents at the table by using creativity. And when it comes to luck, I try not to think about it. 🤔
 
I still think skill matters a lot — maybe even more now.
Solvers made everyone a bit better, but most players still don’t apply what they learn consistently.
At micros, you can still win just by being patient, value-betting hard, and not tilting after bad beats.
Luck decides the short term, but discipline wins the long run.
 
Back in the day, being solid on fundamentals, reading opponents, and managing tilt could take you far. Today, those are baseline requirements. The player pool has leveled up so much that you can’t rely on intuition alone, everyone’s seen the same YouTube hands, solver breakdowns, and strategy charts.
But that doesn’t mean poker has turned into a math contest or “solver war.” Solvers give you theory, but skill is still about execution
 
I understand that poker is a combination of skill and variance, with skill being the dominant factor in the long run and luck being more influential in the short term. Combining patience with the adverse conditions that arise during a poker game is of paramount importance.
 
It’s a question every serious player asks sooner or later.
You can study GTO, analyze ranges, and play almost perfectly and still lose to a one-outer on the river. That’s variance doing its job. But that doesn’t mean poker is luck.
Variance is short-term noise.
Skill is what wins long-term.
Over thousands of hands and hundreds of tournaments, the players who manage their emotions, control risk, and make +EV decisions will always rise above the chaos.
Variance tests your patience.
Skill builds your consistency.
So no, poker isn’t “just luck.”
It’s a skill game with enough variance to make it feel like life itself.
 
Praying is always good, but studying is better, studying for your luck.
 
The way I see it, poker is a combination of skill, variance, and luck. You can have all the strategies in the world, but what matters most is applying the right one based on the situation at the table.
 
Elpadrotico said:
Ultimamente, tenho visto muitos jogadores reclamando que o poker moderno se resume a sorte e guerras de solvers.

Mas... será que a habilidade realmente deixou de fazer a diferença?

Antigamente, entender os intervalos e a pressão do ICM era suficiente. Agora parece que, se você não estiver estudando GTO todos os dias, você é invisível.

Pessoalmente, ainda acho que habilidade importa , mas o nível médio está muito mais alto agora.


O que você acha? Jogar poker hoje em dia significa estudar mais... ou rezar mais? 😅
Click to expand...
I agree that it really got too fast today, and that many recreational players that are not playing for the money end up pushing too hard in tournaments when some are there for quality gameplay, and even in expensive tournaments this happens
 
The game is probably the same as always, the cards and rules are the same, therefore getting used to variance will be as profitable as could have been before.
I guess, who knows?!
God bless
 
I think it varies depending on the time of the tournament... at the beginning I think there are a lot of fish trying to create a stack and shoving any hand, and at the end of the tournament there are those skilled people who knew how to exploit these people who are not playing correctly.

In particular, I think the number of bad beats that take place is impressive.
 
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