JAMILE1
Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
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- Mar 26, 2005
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- #51
what the fk is this?
Just incredible
Just incredible
bfw0082 said:thanks for the speech, good read another poker book and let me know how the $50NL tables are treating you...
Ya unemployed since May 2008, I didnt take any of that money out...
Car broke down in December 2008, nope, didnt take money out....
Roll got back to $5000 in March, nope, didnt take money out...
bfw0082 said:I dont care what you do believe or dont believe...
bfw0082 said:I have gone $0-200 three times in the last 10 days on Carbon, So give me afew days, Ill get it back up....
I save the turn bet, as you say, to keep the pot small, he is calling you down, he most likely has you out kicked, best case is he pairs his second card with a diamond, that way he will lead out a bet and we can take his stake...
I check here because if Villain makes a river bet we can call and it will be the same as betting the turn. If we bet the turn, miss our two pair or flush then the river bet will be that much larger and we are out the same amount of money as we were by check calling, at least we have some chance to win with top pair.
I use this logic all the time, I play $1000NL on Carbon where Turn bets are roughly $250, and River bets can reach $500-$1000....
So I take pot size into consideration in each hand I get in, especially if I am weak praying on a draw.
Maybe they'll bet 88/99 but you said this is a fish that is neither aggressive nor passive and i don't tend to see players like this bet hands like 88/99 once you bet an overcard on the turn. Don't get me wrong, I think 88/99 is absolutely a bet on the river here, but i don't give fish enough credit for hand reading to bet it. And if fish do bet 88/99 here it is probably coz they don't know what they are doing and they'll probably bet 44/55 for the same reason (just bet, they don't know why). That said, if bet sizing is any indication, this looks more like a thin value type hand, but fish certainly bluff this size as well.
As per the other part - we are getting 1:4.7 on the call. So we have to be good 1/5.7 = 18% of the time. When you do 24/(24 + 89) you just get the number of times that you have to "miss" in order to break even for one time you "hit". But you still have to factor in the additional value of 1 for the time that you call and are right (ie. make up the difference and hit the breakeven point). To get 21% you are calculating that we are getting 1:3.7 on the call (1/4.7) which should seem intuitively wrong to you, since if you roughly look at the odds on the call, 24 goes into 113 >4 times to give you better than 4:1. And if you are getting better than 4:1, you obviously have to be right <1/5 of the time. It always helps to do the crude math in your head to get an approx. number so that you can check your exact calculations.
A simple example may make it clear. Most ppl know that you have to be right 1/3 of the time to snap off a psb bluff on the river. But if you do the calculation the 21% way, you get (x/x+x) = 0.5x, which would be 50% (ie. 1:1) the way you calculated it (if x was $10 it would be $10 to call for a $20 pot, or $10/$20 and 0.5). But if you add the additional value of 1 to factor in the time you call and are right (to hit breakeven point), you get 2:1 and 33%.
The way i think is easiest is to figure out the $$ required when you call and win the pot. In this case it is $113. Then take $$ lose everytime you are wrong and divide it by this number (24/113 = 0.21). Divide 1 by 0.21 to get the "calling and lost side of the odds", so 4.76. The "calling and won side" gets a value of 1. So it is 1:4.76 and to figure out the times we have to be right it is 1/(1 + 4.76) = 17.4% (which i had just rounded to 18).
GDRileyx said:So you are saying you cashed in three different freeroll at Carbon in the last ten days?
Carbon leaves completed tournaments on their lobby page. Give us your user name, and we can verify if you are telling the truth.
dsvw56 said:Seriously guy, it's blatantly obvious to anyone who has a clue about poker that you lack even the most basic knowledge of the game and in no way could you be a long term winner. Just give up the charade and admit you're full of crap and we'll all move on.
dsvw56 said:How you think about poker :
How winning players think about poker :
Seriously guy, it's blatantly obvious to anyone who has a clue about poker that you lack even the most basic knowledge of the game and in no way could you be a long term winner. Just give up the charade and admit you're full of crap and we'll all move on.
bfw0082 said:My showdown win percentage is around 85%.... I havent a clue...
Fair enough. Email whatever site you cashed out of and request the withdraw history.bfw0082 said:goes back 30 days, I cashed out in March... December, October and August.
D'wilius said:I just looked over the hand histories, was that a video poker brag in the middle of the atc call/2 pair flops?
vanquish said:i usually coinflip for $100 and if i lose i just coinflip for $200 and keep movin up stakes if i win. i have made over $9000 in the last month doing this
here is a graph:
philthy said:Fair enough. Email whatever site you cashed out of and request the withdraw history.
bfw0082 said:My showdown win percentage is around 85%.... I havent a clue...