We all know that the rarest hand in poker is the royal flush. Some players have not collected it for many years. Collecting a royal flush is a rarity. Collecting it twice in a row is a miracle. It succeeded. It was an American poker player - Alex. The probability of such an event is 0.00000004%. Think about it. Unfortunately, he only managed to earn about $100. But this is an extremely rare event that can be compared to random typing. Do you know what should happen? The generator should be running until this post appears. Each word must be in its place.
Royal flush twice in a row — it's just incredible. odds 1:1 000 000. Most likely, this happens every ten years, given such a number of players. In my entire poker game, I only had a Royal Flush once.
Statistics serve to guide us in terms of neutrality and 'standard'.
The chance you have of making a royal flush after you have just made one is the same as that of making any hand.
I mean... if it was 0.00000004% it will be 0.00000004% in the next one because the previous event doesn't influence the later one.
The chance you have of making a royal flush after you have just made one is the same as that of making any hand.
I mean... if it was 0.00000004% it will be 0.00000004% in the next one because the previous event doesn't influence the later one.
DiegoRamos said:
'The Gambler's Fallacy is the mistaken belief that if an event happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or vice versa.
Every roll of dice, or flip of a fair coin, or dealing of hole cards in Hold'em, are independent events that follow random process.'
It is common for people to think that the previous event will influence future.
That's why we need to understand what statistics are all about, not to fall into 'fallacies' like these!
I agree with you, but I was talking about something else.kunkgreen said:
The probability of a royal flush is 0.0002%.
And after it fell out, the probability of its falling out will also be 0.0002%.
However, the probability that this will happen twice in a row will be negligible - 0.00000004%. The chance of such an event is less, because it must occur exactly twice in a row. Here we do not evaluate events separately from each other.
And one player succeeded)
It's incredible that such an event happened. But when we say that the probability of repetition remains the same mathematically, we must understand that this probability is conditional, not guaranteed. Such an event may not happen again for many years. Let's hope it happens again soon. Because it's cool.
There is a 100% chance that this will happen at all.
If a royal flush comes up, then the probability that it will be in the next hand is exactly the probability of a royal flush )))
If we take a distance of N hands, then there is a very complex formula that describes the probability that during these N hands a royal flush will be 2 times in a row. And if N tends to infinity, then this probability tends to 100%
And above, the probability is simply calculated right in the next 2 distributions to get 2 times a royal flush. So it is not entirely correct to consider after this event has already occurred. It makes sense to count only at a distance. Maybe this player has been playing for 30 years and only recently caught this event )))
If a royal flush comes up, then the probability that it will be in the next hand is exactly the probability of a royal flush )))
If we take a distance of N hands, then there is a very complex formula that describes the probability that during these N hands a royal flush will be 2 times in a row. And if N tends to infinity, then this probability tends to 100%
And above, the probability is simply calculated right in the next 2 distributions to get 2 times a royal flush. So it is not entirely correct to consider after this event has already occurred. It makes sense to count only at a distance. Maybe this player has been playing for 30 years and only recently caught this event )))
And there are 560 characters in this text, including spaces, periods and commas, so the probability of random typing this particular text is P < 1/{26+3}^560nerobs9 said:
And this is "slightly less" than 0.00000004% )))))))
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