Why there are more bad beats online, from Roy Rounder.

i could wrote a book like that haha.. all poker player now that.. but i like some explanations that gives Roy Rounders.. where do he come from??.. hes had a book of poker? or hes makes just a opinion in hes blog?

I Think You All Missed His Real Point…

I agree with the idea that people tend to bet more wildly, loosely, freely, w/e, online than in B&M is because it doesn't seem as real. That's simply the next progression of the reason casinos give you chips to play with instead of letting you use your own cash.

"Honey, that's $100!!"
"Aww, it's just chips…"

But I think the real point of the original post was the last sentence…

…If you find that it makes you some moola (which I know that it will), then I invite you to download my software program….

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Never take the advice of a man who asks you for money. No matter how nice his smile is!

i have see the same bad beats when I play live. Just more of them online because I play more hands!

Time to wake up a thread that's been sleeping for 4 months

I've got the entire Roy Rounders 'buy my stuff' e-mail list in my inbox, I still glaze over it time to time, but most of his stuff is very situation specific. Let's say we're in that hand he posted, with the QT, the T9, and the KK. T9s opens with a raise from MP, QT calls from CO, KK's on the button and 3-bets, and we have AA. What is our correct action?

Well, that depends, we only know what our villains have, not anything about them. We don't know what kind of game we're playing (tournament or cash), what stack sizes are, and what player frequencies are. If we call and spike an A the likelihood of us losing plummets to just barely, and on a flop of say, AKT we're really only worried about a Jack to come. Or if the flop comes T-high with no 9, we're up against top pair x2 and a lesser overpair. Regardless of which game I'm playing, if I think I'll get called around I'll raise.

The goal is to win the most money possible, and having a multiway pot is a good way to win a lot of money, however I personally prefer to take drawing hands into multiway pots, in position. Because flushes and straights are bigger than pairs, two-pair, and sets. However I also like taking big pocket pairs into multiway pot, depending on my villains, stack sizes, etc. If I hit big, I can milk them, getting 3:1 on every one of my bets, as opposed to 1:1 headsup. Granted, I'll run into some bad beats from time to time, but it's part of poker, and every bet I make where I'm getting 3:1 on my money as a favorite to win, that is a big pot with a big payday, provided they hit well enough to continue drawing on me. I can fold my hand in a multiway pot when obvious outs come, or at least figure pot odds, because usually when I'm in a 4 person pot, people aren't betting enough to force out draws. Except regs, that do that... So if I have overpair and figure you for two pair, you might be giving me the correct direct odds to call, let alone implied odds.

A lot of Roy's stuff helped me out when I was still learning, but now in retrospect it seems out-dated and mostly serves as a tool for him to sell his book/programs.

womackcali02 said:

i have see the same bad beats when I play live. Just more of them online because I play more hands!

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Sure, more hands per hour has a small bearing on the number of bad beats, but the real answer (imo) lies in the fact that you just don't see that many people at live tables playing 6,8o or 5,9o all the way to the river just to see if it will hit.

Most folks at live tables are not there for the adrenalin rush of AIPF with ATC.

Do what I'm doing.
I play on avg. a certain amount of hands each session. All I do is look at them in Universal Replayer and write down if I got it in ahead or behind. I get it in ahead more then behind and so I should be making money. Except... bad beats. You can be unlucky but not that unlucky. So... you just send in the histories and the notes you take to Pokerstars. You can do the same thing to Starting Hands. Make sure you get your starting hands over time.

Also I know that odds don't work in simple patterns. You can lose a coin flip 3-5 times in a row. That doesn't mean you can lose 150 coinflips in a row and everything is on the level. That's impossible. It's really hard to lose more then 7-10.

So just send in the simple stuff like how you got money all-in. Or if turn cards keep swinging the wrong way, tell them about it. Easy to deal with. They won't argue with the math.

You don't need 100,000 hands for a sample size. If you play 10 hands and are an 80-20 favorite 7 of the 10 thats good! You should be winning. Except you take bad beats 3 of the times your ahead and lose all 3 times your behind?? That's messed up. Everyone can see that.

Why would you need 100,000 hands to see that you can only make a straight 1 in however hands and you are sitting at a table that just showed 40 of them along with flushes and full houses.

Sure you make more good hands then your suppose to too. But you still end up with a loss? That's called feeding good cards and then applying a beat. That's illegal!

bRiMaTiOn said:

Do what I'm doing.
I play on avg. a certain amount of hands each session. All I do is look at them in Universal Replayer and write down if I got it in ahead or behind. I get it in ahead more then behind and so I should be making money. Except... bad beats. You can be unlucky but not that unlucky. So... you just send in the histories and the notes you take to Pokerstars. You can do the same thing to Starting Hands. Make sure you get your starting hands over time.

Also I know that odds don't work in simple patterns. You can lose a coin flip 3-5 times in a row. That doesn't mean you can lose 150 coinflips in a row and everything is on the level. That's impossible. It's really hard to lose more then 7-10.

So just send in the simple stuff like how you got money all-in. Or if turn cards keep swinging the wrong way, tell them about it. Easy to deal with. They won't argue with the math.

You don't need 100,000 hands for a sample size. If you play 10 hands and are an 80-20 favorite 7 of the 10 thats good! You should be winning. Except you take bad beats 3 of the times your ahead and lose all 3 times your behind?? That's messed up. Everyone can see that.

Why would you need 100,000 hands to see that you can only make a straight 1 in however hands and you are sitting at a table that just showed 40 of them along with flushes and full houses.

Sure you make more good hands then your suppose to too. But you still end up with a loss? That's called feeding good cards and then applying a beat. That's illegal!

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Uhhh...what? SO if I have too many bad beats in 10 hands I email Pokerstars and they fix it so I don't have bad beats? Does this work for Full Tilt, and all the casinos? If so then I'm about to be a much better poker player. I will win because I cried to support??

Try thinking of the post. You'll be less incredulous. There's a lot of facts to check in a poker game and yeah it is mathematically improbable to have too many bad beats in 10 hands depending on the bad beats. What if it's costing you all the pots over 25 BB? Letting you win the small ones?

It would probably work at Full Tilt. Probably not casinos. Unless you want to go talk to security and go over the numbers. Online has hand histories for a lot of reasons.

They don't fix it so you don't have bad beats goof. You'll be standing in front of a major poker site holding proof that they are not legitimate and using proper random software. They'll probably give you all your buy-ins or something.

Goof?

You have any proof that sending hh's back to FT or any other site will get you a refund? You think that any span of 10 hands has statistical significance?

Goof indeed.

bRiMaTiOn said:

Try thinking of the post. You'll be less incredulous. There's a lot of facts to check in a poker game and yeah it is mathematically improbable to have too many bad beats in 10 hands depending on the bad beats. What if it's costing you all the pots over 25 BB? Letting you win the small ones?

It would probably work at Full Tilt. Probably not casinos. Unless you want to go talk to security and go over the numbers. Online has hand histories for a lot of reasons.

They don't fix it so you don't have bad beats goof. You'll be standing in front of a major poker site holding proof that they are not legitimate and using proper random software. They'll probably give you all your buy-ins or something.

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There is no chance whatsoever of them giving you back your buy-ins, because they (and all other sensible people) know that it is down to variance. Variance states exactly what you are denying, namely that it will all even out once you take a large enough sample of hands.

bRiMaTiOn said:

Try thinking of the post. You'll be less incredulous. There's a lot of facts to check in a poker game and yeah it is mathematically improbable to have too many bad beats in 10 hands depending on the bad beats. What if it's costing you all the pots over 25 BB? Letting you win the small ones?

It would probably work at Full Tilt. Probably not casinos. Unless you want to go talk to security and go over the numbers. Online has hand histories for a lot of reasons.

They don't fix it so you don't have bad beats goof. You'll be standing in front of a major poker site holding proof that they are not legitimate and using proper random software. They'll probably give you all your buy-ins or something.

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GOOF???If you've done this post the emails and credits you've gotten. I have a hard time believing they all but admit they're rigged and looking at some random guy's math and cutting you a check based on 10 hands(or any for that matter) you got beat in. Who's the real goof?

Variance states exactly what you are denying, namely that it will all even out once you take a large enough sample of hands.

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Too bad that the "large enough sample" happens to be infinity. =(

A lot of the guys that use this forum confirm that the number of hands that they have registered in PokerTracker or HEM, which is far less than infinity but also a lot more than 10, does actually show that the hands they have played at online poker sites do tie in statistically with the laws of probability.

Generally speaking you can put the "online poker is rigged" people into one of three categories:

1) Sore losers

2) The tin foil hat brigade

3) Sore losers from the tin foil hat brigade

very interesting hahahaha............had a lot of bad beats during this rush poker promo. they're crazy i tell ya!!!

Perhaps it's time for this thread to be merged with the rigged thread... it's starting to get a bit silly now!

What bothers me about the original posting was the example of AA all in against 8-9 players. That may work as an intellectual exercise but it is extremely rare to see more than 3 players all-in in a preflop hand. (other than freerolls or penny poker). AA burn hot but they burn rapidly. For each card that comes out they decrease in value unimproved. To me poker is more than AA in the pocket. These examples, no matter how true, don't generally happen. Big raises with AA don't always get called. Aggression works even without cards in ring games. I like being aggressive on the turn while ahead. You are going to get burned on the river occassionaly but your making them pay to play when they have the worst of it.

More bad beats is because too many idiots call with anything.

Do you REALLY think these multi-billion dollar casinos would need to RIG hands? They make their money from tournament entry fees and rakes... and trust me, they're making plenty.

Why is it unbelievable that they have people playing on their behlaf and when they win the money goes right back to the casino. The live game casinos in AC have this, why not online sites?

Who said that it's hard to believe that props play online? But I do think it absurd to think that the money goes back to the site - who would agree to being a prop without being able to keep winnings?

And why the heck are we posting in a thread that's two years old?

Not ten hands not infinity. Why do you keep saying ten hands? Why did a guy say infinity? Do they check the randomness of software with infinity?

The chances of losing 100 coin flips is so improbable they would give you money back. Follow that logic.

As far as the guys who tell you they checked and it matches with the laws of probability, we need ALL of the players to have the laws of probability with them. Not just the successful cardschat players. Haha, I like how the successful ones have accurate numbers on there side. There's a guy with out of wack cards coming at him wondering if that may be the problem...

Do us all a favor and take your discussion to the rigged thread and let this 2 year old thread die.

fwiw, if ANYONE could demonstrate that they lost 100 coinflips out of 100 chances it would be taken seriously, but NOBODY has ever demonstrated that. Oh, and read your first couple of posts in this thread if you want to know where the number 10 comes from.

NoWuckingFurries said:

A lot of the guys that use this forum confirm that the number of hands that they have registered in PokerTracker or HEM, which is far less than infinity but also a lot more than 10, does actually show that the hands they have played at online poker sites do tie in statistically with the laws of probability.

Generally speaking you can put the "online poker is rigged" people into one of three categories:

1) Sore losers

2) The tin foil hat brigade

3) Sore losers from the tin foil hat brigade

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Hahaha! Win!

Madness_does said:

Do you REALLY think these multi-billion dollar casinos would need to RIG hands? They make their money from tournament entry fees and rakes.

That statement right there just shows you dont know a damm thing about business and GREED, online poker is so phuckking rigged its sick, but I still play cause I have to drive over an hour to play a live game, all we have out here in CA is fixed limit which sucks too. its very simple, throw monster hands out, people bet in thinking they are going win and boom you get more rake, anyone that plays live can see this a mile away. That is why I play micro limits and save the big money for real card rooms.

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Hi, Nick Elliott, cash game player from California.

Next time you're at a casino in the Los Angeles area, ask them to seat you at a No Limit table. See you on the felt.

kmixer said:

Do you REALLY think these multi-billion dollar casinos would need to RIG hands? They make their money from tournament entry fees and rakes... and trust me, they're making plenty.

Why is it unbelievable that they have people playing on their behlaf and when they win the money goes right back to the casino. The live game casinos in AC have this, why not online sites?

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Because the only thing that internet-based poker websites have is credibility. If FTP stopped sending out checks, but kept taking in deposits for two months, then the site went down for a month, do you think they'd ever get a deposit again? How about the thousands they handle daily (presumably)?

It is +EV for them to run a straight game. Remember the AP/UB scandal? Now look at Phil Helmuth. He STILL has that giant atrocious skin tag.


And last, I'll make several points, all in bold.

bRiMaTiOn said:

Not ten hands not infinity. Why do you keep saying ten hands? Why did a guy say infinity? Do they check the randomness of software with infinity?
Infiniti is not a value, but a concept (I'm sure there's a better word for this, but I'm also sure I'm getting my point accross). While I'm too lazy to look it up, somebody with the title "new member" said if you e-mail pokerstars with 10 hands in which you were a favorite by 80:20, you would get reimbursed if you lost six of them. After my next comment I had to come back and mention I suspect it's you.

The chances of losing 100 coin flips is so improbable they would give you money back. Follow that logic.
Here's some logic:
If I have QQ and you have AK, and you don't improve 100 times, where do they get the money to pay you? Last I checked when you played poker, you agreed to the rules of poker, and there are no do overs, not in poker. Sure, out of those hundred hands I'd expect to win about 53 and lose about 47. Over a hundred thousand hands I'd expect to win about 53k and lose 47k. Now if I lose all 100k or win all 100k, do you really expect any business in the world to come and offer mem my money back? Even if I lost ten times in a row, which is going to happen less than one one hundreth of a percent of the time, the businesses are out to make money, not compensate for my variance.


As far as the guys who tell you they checked and it matches with the laws of probability, we need ALL of the players to have the laws of probability with them. Not just the successful cardschat players. Haha, I like how the successful ones have accurate numbers on there side. There's a guy with out of wack cards coming at him wondering if that may be the problem...

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As stated several times, in this thread, in poker, and in life, you need a long sample to prove that variance is how it should be. Consider the following: I am a losing online player. I log on, deposit a couple buy-ins to my favorite limit, and lose it all within 500 hands. Some other player from cardschat is not a losing online player. They log on, and play 4k hands in a day. And 4k the next. And 4k the next. And 4k the next. And 4k the next. Now, who's going to be able to look up their stats and get a better idea of what's going on, the guy with 20k hands or 500? It's painfully obvious that you are one and not the other, otherwise you wouldn't be making this argument.

It's okay, though. Don't beat yourself up over it. I'm a losing online player and a winning live game player. I just need to be able to see somebody in order to beat them. (It also helps when they don't have all those stats on me...)

I suggest you either get out of the online game, or get some tools to give yourself an edge, or, the easiest thing you could do would open your mind to the facts that are common poker knowledge among regulars and above, should you ever hope to reach such a level.

That's not right. You can measure numbers.

If you are an 80-20 favorite and you lose 3 of 7, and then you are an 80-20 dog and you lose 3 of 3, that's really unlucky and points to cheating. How do you even catch cheaters if you can't check the numbers? Why does everyone think that Pokerstars is too reputable to cheat, but not reputable enough to compensate you if you find flaws in their software?