AA in hand, the strongest cards before flop?

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puzzlefish said:
I never said I am crushing. To the contrary, I am saying to look at hand history to find patterns in the hands leading up to the cracked AA. I know any hand can beat AA, but it is a funny coincidence at how often I see the same pattern repeating right before my AA get cracked and it's usually by hands that should not even be calling my raises. No, they jam over the top, usually with garbage, and hit their miracle draws. I don't need to prove anything to anyone and I couldn't even if I wanted to. I just want to save some stacks and buy-ins for players who are getting sucked out by predators that know how to exploit faulty RNGs.

I don't know how to run a query that would isolate these exact instances from HH and count them against all others. It is beyond my technical expertise. However, if you are easily able to do this or know someone that can, then I would love to learn. How do you use a query to sift through HH and define suckouts that follow specific patterns? Maybe start with AA cracked immediately after winning a hand or folding a hand that would have been the winning hand on the previous board. I have no idea how to do that.
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There are many more productive ways of using HH to improve you're game. The time you are spending looking for ever changing patterns to beat players using mind games to beat a RNG has taken you to a dead end road.

Most HH analysis is to discover leaks in you're game, where to get the most value. You're really off on the wrong track. There many tools out there to sort HH for specific hands or hands that are losing the most. Shortly after playing for a year, I ran mine for AA and KK and was close to what the odds were. Also ran it for which hands were the bigest winners and loser. What I found helped my game, biggest losing hand was A Q in ealry position. Was an easy adjustment and in 6 months it improved.

You have a lot members posting in regards to the advise given. You really should be thankful that they are. First, it is not proven advise that could be substantiated with in any certainty. You really don't know how well it does work through HH. To be so adamant to the statement show members a pattern. I would ask that question about programs that will isolate inforamtion on hands. Most are free downloads.

Personally, if I didn't trust the RNG, it would a monumental waste of time. Rather play lottery tickets than waste hours in a MTT.
 
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A-A preflop is the best hand of all in any type of game, whether tournaments or cash games. There is no discussion
 
AA is the best preflop hand, but in order to win with it you need to play aggressively and try to keep as few players as possible in the pot then you will have more chances to win !!! if the flop is worrying you should be able to throw this hand out, which is not always the case with weak players !!!!
 
puzzlefish said:
How about you lost $3000 for playing AA three times and then wan $20 worth of blinds total with 3000 AA after that? How would that make you feel?
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You keep pointing out how we can predict losing with AA online, based on certain "pattern", that being said, you are aware of the pattern and are able to FOLD AA preflop when playing online!
In that case, what happens with other hands? What if you get JTs, do you use the same patterns? If you lose 3k $ with medium hand like KQs what do you say then?

If someone lost any $ (and we all did probably) with AA, even when it went all in pre flop, it is just a portion of everything that happened when you had AA.
The biggest problem with AA is:
when you win - that is ok, I had the best hand anyways
when you lose - OMG the world is against me, that idiot called me with KK pre flop OMG, how could this happen, there has to be a pattern that online software uses to crack my AA hand...

If there was no luck involved in poker, the game would be boring, but since it has luck involved, we try to make quality decisions, so that luck influences us less then an average poker gambler. That just means you will lose some, but win far more if playing correctly!
 
mtmigmike said:
A pair of AA must be played correctly, usually I play ALL in not to lose it, but sometimes luck turns away from you and you lose.🙂
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If truth that the luck left me in those 3 opportunities.
 
Bozovicdj said:
You keep pointing out how we can predict losing with AA online, based on certain "pattern", that being said, you are aware of the pattern and are able to FOLD AA preflop when playing online!
In that case, what happens with other hands? What if you get JTs, do you use the same patterns? If you lose 3k $ with medium hand like KQs what do you say then?

If someone lost any $ (and we all did probably) with AA, even when it went all in pre flop, it is just a portion of everything that happened when you had AA.
The biggest problem with AA is:
when you win - that is ok, I had the best hand anyways
when you lose - OMG the world is against me, that idiot called me with KK pre flop OMG, how could this happen, there has to be a pattern that online software uses to crack my AA hand...

If there was no luck involved in poker, the game would be boring, but since it has luck involved, we try to make quality decisions, so that luck influences us less then an average poker gambler. That just means you will lose some, but win far more if playing correctly!
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I think you missed my point. In that everyone is saying that in the long run AA is a dominant hand despite the suckouts, but without considering that if you lose more money with a few hands than what you win with many hands, statistically AA is doing alright but financially the player is not doing so well.

Yes I am looking at patterns and they apply to all hands, including but not limited to AA, KQ, JT.. it just seems that certain events that happen in the hands immediately prior seem to have predictive value in terms of which way the "variance" swings. It makes the difference between getting set mined and mining sets, for example. But that's not to say that in the long term the numbers won't add up for wins and losses with any given hand. The devil is in the details.. and that is the profit per win in given situations.
 
Try to fight an AA against one only. Be agressive on bad positons, that depends man. Try to imagine an AA against T9s, and a 55. Whatever, Do you really think u an get this easily? No you dont, its complicated. Thats why we always talk about positions, chips, and on. Not only cards.
 
I struggle to see the argument in 3 hands of AA failing. Run it 100x or even better run it 10,000x guarantee you will come out ahead based on the variables. Generally pocket AA not that strong of a hand cuz its just 1 pair. I am by no means a pro or even that experienced but i do understand numbers and 3 hands of highest pair can be beat by anything higher then 1 pair. Pretty simple math to be honest, I can't speak out of knowing what works for everyone i think there are multiple styles of play for poker and if you are always betting all in pre-flop seems to be a pretty big mistake if you're goal is to build you're bankroll.
 
of course it's bad luck, and one thing every poker player has to accept: not always the best hand will win this is fact! Not to mention another friend, we can not only get results with 3 hands, you need a much bigger sample to know if the play is profitable or not, and without doubt some AA is very profitable in the long run! Good luck for your next pair of aces hehehehe
 
puzzlefish said:
Sure, if what I suggested is truly nonsense and not practical or helpful, the OP will realize that fairly quickly.
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He came here for assistance and this does not assist him at all. It is really bad advice.

He obviously needs help understanding variance and with his post-flop play when he has AA. He does not need to be told to fold AA pre-flop based on something that did or did not happen in his previous hands. You are setting him up for failure and that is not what the forum is for.

Thankfully plenty of more experienced and knowledgeable players have come in to offer him better advice which I hope he listens to.
 
Debi what I don't understand is why put down my advice if you have never played on Poker Stars? It is quite likely that ACR doesn't run the same way PS does, but you and many others just assume there is nothing to what I am saying without so much as a glance. I would offer that you open up any replay of a Sunday Millions game on YouTube and see for yourself what is going on if you can't play on Stars yourself (Americans). I encourage the same for everyone instead of just repeatedly busting out on aces. Stars and 888 only.
 
What if I have K K before the flop and somebody goes ALL IN should I do it as well?
 
mikkex99 said:
What if I have K K before the flop and somebody goes ALL IN should I do it as well?
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You're supposed to if it's going to be heads up. If there are several other callers that go all in before you, I would fold unless you are down to around 10bb or less. This is without considering previous hands.
 
When playing AA it depends on the action pre flop. You have to consider how much players that'll be likely to call your raise and decide what's the best course of action if more than one player is likely to call then increase your raise or shove all in. When I'm playing AA I'm extremely aggressive and you don't want weak hands to come in the pot as it's likely for them to catch on the flop! My AA been cracked with 72 off and other extremely weak hands many times because players loose players that's running good don't fold easily so if you see players like that shoving pre flop is most likely the best course of action! When i have monster hands i prefer 1 on 1 action, scratch that all my hands I prefer 1 on 1 action as your chances of winning is higher! How you play the hand has to do with your monsters being cracked as well! I've seen guys limping with AA and checking on the bb after 5 guys limp in the pot and won but your luck ain't as good as his so don't make that mistake!
 
puzzlefish said:
In normal poker, AA is the best hand when heads up against someone. If there are more than 2 other players in the pot with your AA, you have about 50/50 of winning. Now, this may be controversial, but I would ask that for your online experience that you take a look at the hand immediately prior to your AA hand. See if you would have won that hand against the other players - if you would have won the previous hand (or if you did win), especially with some sort of unlikely draw (running flush, straight, etc.) - then your AA is scheduled to get cracked. If you check and the previous hand would have been a loss for you, especially if it would have been second best to the winning hand, then your AA will likely be good for you.

Also, check to see if you are facing a villain who just lost a significant amount of their stack in the last hand. You are more likely to lose against this villain with your AA as opposed to a villain who just won.

Try this and let me know what you find.
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interesting idea
 
puzzlefish said:
You're supposed to if it's going to be heads up. If there are several other callers that go all in before you, I would fold unless you are down to around 10bb or less. This is without considering previous hands.
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Then you'll be playing too tight but there are many factors to consider before folding monster hands but don't get the idea that you should then it'll be like winning the lottery but tossing away the ticket!90% of the time that'll be a extremely bad fold.
 
pokersextreme said:
Then you'll be playing too tight but there are many factors to consider before folding monster hands but don't get the idea that you should then it'll be like winning the lottery but tossing away the ticket!90% of the time that'll be a extremely bad fold.
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So then is there a BB range where you would call vs fold? Must be done by a solver by now. I get that with a large stack against several small stacks may be a call as well, but several equally sized stacks going all-in in front of your KK? Are you saying that would be a call 90% of the time? Doesn't sound +EV to me.
 
I like what Puzzle Fish was saying at the top of this post. I must keep that in mind the next time I have AA. I have lost with them more times than I care to remember
 
Bertie Wooster said:
So...Anderson, this is sort of a fragment of information. Are you raising preflop? How much? 2X 2.5X 10X?

So...a person who "limps with AA or plays it very soft is going to cracked more often because they are encouraging callers...more callers means more chances of losing. If you are playing big hands like AA strong, you are improving the odds of your hand holding up because you are narrowing the number of opponents.

Also... really good players are able to fold AA. NEVER PRE_FLOP. It's not something you want to do, but example- I played in a live tournament earlier this week. I raised UTG and got 3 callers, including the Big Blind. The BB could be playing a wode variety of hands here because the other 2 callers added value to the pot, giving him the correct odds to call with small pairs and stuff like suited connectors or a suited Ace.

The flop comes 689, w 2 clubs. BB checks, I bet. The other 2 guys fold and the BB raises half his stack. If I call, I am putting my tournament on the line. I can't call and then fold the turn or river. I need to make a decision to take the hand all the way or fold now. It is highly probable that this guy Has something like 66. Given his stack size and his play in the tourney to this point, a bluff would be stupid. I doubt he is playing something like top pair this strong, also dumb in this particular case. About the worst hand I can put him on is something like an open ender with a pair... something like 89 or 78, or possibly a gut shot with 2 clubs.

I put this guy on 66, but there are a lotta hands where I am in bad shape.

Let's say he has 67, 78 or 79... I'm still ahead, but it's about 55-45. I don't want to stake my tourney on a coin flip unless I am a weaker player and that's my best shot. If he has a pair w/ flush draw, the odds are worse for me.

So it's probability, not bad luck.

Insane story- in 2007 I was playing full time, and a lot of that was live. I lost THIRTEEN (or 14) STRAIGHT hands where I had KK. The probability of that happening is miniscule...but it happened even though I was (increasing in paranoia, and thus) betting them even more aggressively prefop.

One hand I had KK in the BB. This kid had a big stack and was raising every hand. He raised, I called. The flop was J 4 2, rainbow. I check, knowing this kid can't help himself and he snap-shoves. I call. He has 10 6...yes 10 6... no draw, no hand. he hits a 10 on the turn and another 10 on the river and I get knocked out.

KK is like...97% there... but that means you lose 1 outta 33 times. Those awful beats stay with you, but ya know what?

Give me AA every time. If I can't have AA, gimme Kings.

Don't be afraid of those hands, pray for them and bet them hard when you get them. And for the love of gawd, it has nothing to do with whether you won or lost the previous hand, or the other has won or lost this hand or that hand... discard that kind of analysis immediately... it's simple probability, and when you have AA, YOU have probability on your side, right where you want it.
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Agree about preflop AA, but not about KK. I'm often loose with preflop kings against A even with leak kicker.
Don't know why so many players think that A with any kicker is a good hand to reraise my raise and then call my all in.
 
It depends on the caliber of people you are playing with not so much if AA is strong, because it is the strongest. AA at a loose table playing with people who don't know any better than to shove after every raise with any 2 cards will invariably get cracked more often.
 
Pocket aces is not always win. That's why poker is a such beatiful game every hand can beat every hand.
 
I dream about getting AA and I always without failure raise preflop and three bet if someone raises in front of me regardless of position. The real decision comes after I see the flop because before that I am always ahead.
 
puzzlefish said:
It's not a matter of J5o hitting two pair. It depends on what the J5o hit two pair against and whether there was a better hand than J5o at the table which had folded pre-flop. It is not as simple as you think and based on your oversimplification, you are dismissing my post. But that's okay to me. I am just posting for a large number of readers who are actually looking for answers and I am convinced that there are answers out there when variance turns out to have predictable properties.

I do not fold AA pre always. But I know something is up when I see the same pattern repeating to bust my AA, so I will fold AA sometimes. Again, this only applies to online poker (888 and PS.. maybe other sites are different). Do not play the way I suggest live.
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You are totally wrong. You are saying that the sites have algorithms that adjust for prior hand results. Every hand is random and your AA is not scheduled to get cracked. Pardon me but I think you are a little cracked,
 
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