An intriguing question for the mathematics experts:
Lets assume we have an equity of 0.5 (in percentage fraction), computed given the range of our villain. Assume we compute our EV based on this equity.
However, we want to think into the future:
If vilain bets after our decision, we update his range to be stronger, and our equity decreases to 0.25. The estimated probability of a future bet from the villain is lets say 0.33 (from a HUD read).
Given this scenario, how to compute the EV for our actual decision? Shoud we assume an equity of 0.5*(1-0.33) + 0.25*0.33? Or should we use the original equity of 0.5?
PS: not sure if this should be asked here or in the next lesson, I will let a mod decide.
Lets assume we have an equity of 0.5 (in percentage fraction), computed given the range of our villain. Assume we compute our EV based on this equity.
However, we want to think into the future:
If vilain bets after our decision, we update his range to be stronger, and our equity decreases to 0.25. The estimated probability of a future bet from the villain is lets say 0.33 (from a HUD read).
Given this scenario, how to compute the EV for our actual decision? Shoud we assume an equity of 0.5*(1-0.33) + 0.25*0.33? Or should we use the original equity of 0.5?
PS: not sure if this should be asked here or in the next lesson, I will let a mod decide.
birdman666 said:
It's not possible to compute an EV based just on our equity against an opponent's range (when there's future betting, at least). Remember that EV is the expected value of an action, not a hand. So we could have let's say 70% equity against an opponent's range and our different options might have anywhere from negative EV to very high EV.
Hope that helps and sorry if I've misunderstood the question -- if so or you have a specific hand in mind, feel free to post more!
Day 4 of book
On day four, they talked about equity so you can already imagine the% that nothing else is the real chances of you losing or winning. Ex: if you hold AA against 65o + you have a 77% chance of taking the hand
The book also talks about the calculator that we have available at last
I really enjoyed reading this free book I recommend to you readers ... leave your comment
On day four, they talked about equity so you can already imagine the% that nothing else is the real chances of you losing or winning. Ex: if you hold AA against 65o + you have a 77% chance of taking the hand
The book also talks about the calculator that we have available at last
I really enjoyed reading this free book I recommend to you readers ... leave your comment
Collin Moshman said:
Lets say I have a hand such as JQ and the flop is QT9. In general, we might have the best hand, so we shoud bet, since this is our best EV play. However, the villan is very predictable, and we know that a raise is either a bluff or a straight (lets ignore flushes here). We also know that he will bluff-raise 50% of the time. Given this information, should we bet? What is the equity in percentage of betting here?
I think my previous example was not exactly what I wanted to ask.
Lets imagine we are at the flop headsup against villain. Our current equity is X, estimated from our hand's strength and villains preflop range. We want to assess if checking OOP in this situation is a good play. If villain bets after we cheek, our equity changes to Y (by narrowing his range), while if he does not bet, our equity changes to Z (again by narrowing his range in a different way). From HUD info, we know villain bets around 60% of the checked flops (regardless of what happened pre-flop).
Given this information, can I replace my current equity X by a new value given by 0.6*Y + 0.4*Z, still before knowing if he bets or not? Or is X still the best estimate? In other words, can we look into the future to assess if cheking in this spot is a good option?
Lets imagine we are at the flop headsup against villain. Our current equity is X, estimated from our hand's strength and villains preflop range. We want to assess if checking OOP in this situation is a good play. If villain bets after we cheek, our equity changes to Y (by narrowing his range), while if he does not bet, our equity changes to Z (again by narrowing his range in a different way). From HUD info, we know villain bets around 60% of the checked flops (regardless of what happened pre-flop).
Given this information, can I replace my current equity X by a new value given by 0.6*Y + 0.4*Z, still before knowing if he bets or not? Or is X still the best estimate? In other words, can we look into the future to assess if cheking in this spot is a good option?
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birdman666 said:
I agree with everything before the last paragraph!
The problem with using this HUD stat is that we don't actually learn anything new about his range if we're going based on overall how often he bets in these situations. So X is still our best estimate. If what we're interested in is coming up with the most accurate % equity possible, we need our opponent to make another action allowing us to further narrow his range.
Hope that helps, great questions + feel free to elaborate if there's more you'd like me to reply to on this topic 🙂
Collin Moshman said:
I asked this because I face this dillema frequently in heads-up, where bluff c-betting is common. So I try to evaluate the current decision OOP given all possible future scenarios:
- He c-bets/raises and is bluff.
- He c-bets/raises and is value.
- He does not c-bet/raise.
The idea is to weight these scenarions into a single equity value that will evaluate the action I am planning, before I do it.
Another case where I find useful to evaluate the future is when using the x2 / x4 rule. If I want to use the x4 rule knowing that future bets may occur (when x2 equity is not good), I add the average value of the future bet I expect, weighted by the probability that such bet will occur, to the price of the current bet of the villain. If villain does not defend too much against draws, I tend to reduce the probability of future bets. Some villains also defend by betting only one or two BBs.
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birdman666 said:
I'm not sure I understand the details of this last calculation, but I definitely agree that it's important to plan your hands and think ahead to account for betting on future streets. Usually I would do that qualitatively, but there are for sure spots with draws where detailed math is best as well as programs like Cardrunners EV that attempt to do it in any spot.
I think it's great that you're analyzing your hands in such detail.
Collin Moshman said:
Basically, the x4 rule should be used only when no future bets occur, like an all-in situation. Otherwise, the x2 rule must be used instead. So I try to estimate the ammount of the bet the villain will most likely do on the turn, and add that ammount to the current bet he is doing on the flop, as if both were a single bet. Then I can use the 4x rule.
O course, I only do this if the 2x rule equity is not good.
birdman666 said:
The 2x and 4x rules are purely to calculate percent equities based on number of outs. They don't change based on future betting. Of course, your decision on whether to call or not should change based on what you think will happen on future streets. But if we're just talking about 2x and 4x, use 2x at the turn and 4x at the flop.
ScoobyEdu said:
Pre-flop simulations tend to be easier in terms of putting your opponent on a range that you put in software. So while both pre-flop and post-flop are important, I agree that it's more common to do pre-flop for that reason.
birdman666 said:
The 4x rule is purely to estimate your equity at the flop in a situation where you have a draw. So it's not risky in and of itself, but could be if you used it to justify an ambitious implied odds call. I hope that makes sense -- feel free to post a specific hand if it helps and I'd be glad to run through this calculation and any specific questions on how to apply it 🙂
Pichman189 said:
Someone's fold equity doesn't depend too much on their own hand (although it does a little because of blockers). But the main factor in opponent's fold equity is just how likely you are to fold in a given spot. For it to be zero, that means you're never folding such as if you would always call the river after calling 90% of your stack on the turn.
Hope that helps!
Collin Moshman said:
Is blockers are min raises on postflop to confuse opponents?
And whether the fold equity indicator in the poker tracker is important during the game or is it more important after the tournament (for analysis). When there are a lot of indicators in HUD, won't I get confused?
Pichman189 said:
Blockers are cards you hold that therefore make other player’s hands less likely. For example if we have 7h8h on KhQh9h, it is less likely that our opponent has a flush because we have a flush and there are holding two of the remaining hearts. To use a more common example, on a board of 568, when he hold K7, it is less likely that our opponents have a straight because we hold a 7. In other words, we have a blocker to the straight in the last example.
Stats are useful both during and after play though I believe most would argue that they’re more important while playing since you can directly use them to help you make more profitable decisions in the moment.
As for your third question, I believe that too many stats can def make a HUD unusable! I play with a streamlined HUD because I’ve also found that it makes it easier to play a lot of tables with. The important thing is that you make your HUD work for you, and be a ruthless editor in terms of not keeping up stats that some players may love but don’t actually work for you.
Katie Dozier said:
Katie, thanks for the detailed and very clear answer. :icon_bigs Now I know what blocking cards are. I understand that this is especially true when there is a flush draw or a straight draw. Concerning the HUD. I have a question. I don't want a lot of stats that will prevent me from multitable, help me what stats I need. I will install them and delete the rest. Ultimately, it is important for me to get the maximum profit and not just proudly call myself a cool statuser) It is very important for me. For example, let's take a simple sitandgo 45-90 people, MTT and cash (normal and zoom / boost). But the priority is precisely the multi-table tournaments. I use Hold'em Manager 3. There are standard stats, but I don’t really understand them yet. What stats do I need to make profitable decisions in the future?
Thanks for this explanation, I think the comparison to buying a house help me put things together faster.
I'm wondering how best to begin incorporating this when I play as I don't think using something like Equilab constantly while playing is practical or useful for actually learning.
Should I just be using the range I put my opponent(s) on to estimate whether or not I have more equity than them and play more aggressively/cautiously according to that?
I'm wondering how best to begin incorporating this when I play as I don't think using something like Equilab constantly while playing is practical or useful for actually learning.
Should I just be using the range I put my opponent(s) on to estimate whether or not I have more equity than them and play more aggressively/cautiously according to that?
EnigmaTTO said:
Nice question Enigma and we're glad the house example was helpful!
Don't try to use Equilab while playing; it would take too much focus + many sites directly prohibit having it up for in-game analysis.
Just make sure to understand the concepts; and then use them when you're analyzing hands after a session. Doing these things will help you out a lot when you're facing similar spots in the future even if you can't get an exact answer in real-time.
Pichman189 said:
The most profitable stats will vary from person to person. For example, I know a lot of players love “aggression factor” as a stat even on a relatively simple HUD but I’ve always thought it was too ambiguous for my tastes 🙂
The stats I personally like the best are:
name/# hands/VPIP/PFR/3-Bet%/Fold to steal in BB
(On last stat “steal” means folding to any late position raise). Sometimes I also play with “fold to C-bet % displayed. If I were only playing a couple of tables I’m sure what I want would be different, but this is what I’ve found to matter the most to me over the years.
Hope this helps 🙂
Thank you for day 4, equity is very important when playing a hand. What is a good things to practice this? Play a lot of hands and analyze it afterwards with what percent equity do I have? During a game it is impossible to do all the analysis.
imnoobpoker said:
We're glad you enjoyed Day 4! Good question.
Study away from the table; mark hands and use software like Equilab to analyze them; and don't worry, you'll improve a lot when you're actually playing too.