When should you stop chasing flush & straight draws on the turn??

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didi58xx

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Hey everyone, I wanted to discuss a situation that occurs to me a lot and creates a dilemma especially when the pots now are getting bigger... What is your strategy like when you have reached the turn and you are still chasing for that flush or straight - but other players are now raising big...?

For example - you have a J 8 of suited hearts - flop comes 3 K A - with two of the cards being hearts - turn comes 10 - no heart yet - you are now really wishing for that heart to hit that flush and win that pot...only the river left - Do you fold now or your instinct says wait for the river...

So like I have already lost a number of chips due to chasing that flush, since other players are raising and they obviously have A or K- but this situation happens to me a lot and I do get the flush or straight at times - but honestly losing happens a lot in these situations -

So what is your take on this - do you cut your losses and fold early before the turn, or do you calculate the risk and go for it...

I would love to hear your thoughts...
 
didi58xx said:
For example - you have a J 8 of suited hearts - flop comes 3 K A - with two of the cards being hearts - turn comes 10 - no heart yet - you are now really wishing for that heart to hit that flush and win that pot...only the river left - Do you fold now or your instinct says wait for the river...
Click to expand...

First, specific to this example, we actually have 12 outs here. Not only are there 9 hearts out there, there are also 4 Q's to give us a straight. Add those together is 13 but take 1 away so not to count the Q of hearts twice, for 12. Not only that, but so long as there is no double flush draw (say the board is heart, heart, club, club - we don't want Q of clubs) then the Q for straight is actually safer for us since it would give us the nuts, although it has a decent chance to chop. And the Q of hearts specifically gives us nut flush, no chop, all ours.

But on to your question, how big are the bets that we are facing? If they are throwing down pot or more, I'm inclined to fold fairly easily, but if they are betting half-pot I'm inclined to hang around.

Also, what are the suits of that A and K? If they are both hearts, that's good, because it gives us 2nd nut and only Q if hearts suited makes a better flush. But if the hearts are the 3 and the A say, then we have 3rd nut and this starts getting a little dangerous.

Stack depth matters too. If we're 100 deep, calling half-pot shouldn't be a problem, but at 30 deep, chasing gets expensive.

We also don't necessarily have to chase. We can play the draw aggressively as a semi-bluff. If we hit we get paid at least 2 streets. If we miss, we can bluff the river, although on your example board anything calling the previous streets is often calling the river too, unless Villain was also drawing. ; )

If we really just don't like loose aggro Villain betting large when we check our draw, we can always blocker bet say a 1/3rd pot to keep him honest.
 
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Remember the odds for draws with 1 card to come.

Gut draw, 4 outs, approx 8% chance to complete.

Open-ended draw, 8 outs, approx 15% chance to complete.

Flush draw, 9 outs, approx 18% chance to complete.
 
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Its a classic pot odds and implied odds type of situation. So it depends, how large the bet is, and how much is left behind for the river. It also depends on the suit distribution. If the board is :as4::kh4::3h4:, then the opponent could be betting for value with a hand like :ah4::qh4:, which have you drawing only to the gutshot, and where you are set-up to lose lot of chips on the river, if another heart comes. This is known as reverse implied odds.
So you would rather have a board like :ah4::kh4::3c4:, where you can only get coolered by hands like :qh4::9h4:, that are bluffing, and where you have 6 outs to a pair as well as 3 outs to a straight. On the latter board you have slightly more equity against his range and less reverse implied odds, so you should be willing to pay a slighty bigger bet than on the first board.

How much depend on the stack left behind for the river, and if you think, the opponent will pay you off, when there are either 4 cards to a straight or 3 cards to a flush. With 4 cards to a straight, there will always be some frequenzy of chopping, so you should not count those as full outs when determining, if you are getting the right odds to call. Maybe you view it as having 11 outs on the good board and probably no more than 9 outs on the bad board to account for the fact, your flush outs are not always live.
Say you are facing a large turn bet like 75% pot. Then you should probably fold on the :as4::kh4::3h4: board, whereas its a closer decision on the :ah4::kh4::3c4: board. If its a small bet like 40% pot, you are pretty much getting the direct odds to call and try to realise your equity on both flops. There are sections of the CC 30-day course about playing draws and pot odds, which you might want to watch.
 
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If there was a bet and a call before you, or if aggressive players are seated behind you, the risk of facing a raise increases, making your turn call a mistake.
 
dreamer13 said:
If there was a bet and a call before you, or if aggressive players are seated behind you, the risk of facing a raise increases, making your turn call a mistake.
Click to expand...

Risk of getting raised behind, absolutely be cautious of that, but not necessarily a mistake. Honestly, in a multiway pot with A and K and flush draws and gut shots, we may get coolered here but especially in a multiway we have decent pot odds to a potentially large pot, if our stack can afford the call we usually owe it to ourself to stick around.
 
Just do quick math to help, take your 12 outs times 2, 24. 24 percent of the time you hit your hand.
So you don’t want to pay more than 24 percent of the total pot to chase here. If you do pay more, you need to make up for it with implied odds. Do you think your opponent will pay you off when your card comes in? If yes then you can pay more for your draw. If no then don’t pay more because in the long run this will be a loosing play over and over again.
So if there is one opponent and he bets half the pot or less on the turn, take your shot. If it’s more than half the pot here, you are putting in more than 24% so your gambling. Good luck and have fun!
 
didi58xx said:
Hey everyone, I wanted to discuss a situation that occurs to me a lot and creates a dilemma especially when the pots now are getting bigger... What is your strategy like when you have reached the turn and you are still chasing for that flush or straight - but other players are now raising big...?

For example - you have a J 8 of suited hearts - flop comes 3 K A - with two of the cards being hearts - turn comes 10 - no heart yet - you are now really wishing for that heart to hit that flush and win that pot...only the river left - Do you fold now or your instinct says wait for the river...

So like I have already lost a number of chips due to chasing that flush, since other players are raising and they obviously have A or K- but this situation happens to me a lot and I do get the flush or straight at times - but honestly losing happens a lot in these situations -

So what is your take on this - do you cut your losses and fold early before the turn, or do you calculate the risk and go for it...

I would love to hear your thoughts...
Click to expand...
I’d probably look at the bet size first. If they’re putting in a big turn bet, chasing one card gets expensive pretty fast.
 
didi58xx said:
Hey everyone, I wanted to discuss a situation that occurs to me a lot and creates a dilemma especially when the pots now are getting bigger... What is your strategy like when you have reached the turn and you are still chasing for that flush or straight - but other players are now raising big...?

For example - you have a J 8 of suited hearts - flop comes 3 K A - with two of the cards being hearts - turn comes 10 - no heart yet - you are now really wishing for that heart to hit that flush and win that pot...only the river left - Do you fold now or your instinct says wait for the river...

So like I have already lost a number of chips due to chasing that flush, since other players are raising and they obviously have A or K- but this situation happens to me a lot and I do get the flush or straight at times - but honestly losing happens a lot in these situations -

So what is your take on this - do you cut your losses and fold early before the turn, or do you calculate the risk and go for it...

I would love to hear your thoughts...
Click to expand...
Pot odds are what determines our actions in spots like that. If we do not get the correct odds to call we fold!

On the flop we have implied odds so we are seldom going to fold then. We would fold if it was multiway and we were certain our flush would not be good if we hit it.
In your example we could fold flop if the Ace was not a heart as our betting Villain can have top pair and flush draw. If the flop is AKhh then we have a much stronger draw and would not fold flop as our V is unlikely to bet Qxhh on that flop.


🤔🤓
 
Odds are we're behind, maybe by quite a bit. Sometimes we're chasing the 2nd or even 3rd best hand. So for me it generally comes down to - am I feeling lucky?
 
I feel like nowdays I have been learned to better understand oppositions hands on these cases, but sometimes you are just too deep to give up ( while I think you prolly should ). But it does feel juicy to hit that right card & double up sometimes.
 
If all about equity I can only chase until that action makes me profitable or earning positive ev
 
didi58xx said:
Hey everyone, I wanted to discuss a situation that occurs to me a lot and creates a dilemma especially when the pots now are getting bigger... What is your strategy like when you have reached the turn and you are still chasing for that flush or straight - but other players are now raising big...?

For example - you have a J 8 of suited hearts - flop comes 3 K A - with two of the cards being hearts - turn comes 10 - no heart yet - you are now really wishing for that heart to hit that flush and win that pot...only the river left - Do you fold now or your instinct says wait for the river...

So like I have already lost a number of chips due to chasing that flush, since other players are raising and they obviously have A or K- but this situation happens to me a lot and I do get the flush or straight at times - but honestly losing happens a lot in these situations -

So what is your take on this - do you cut your losses and fold early before the turn, or do you calculate the risk and go for it...

I would love to hear your thoughts...
Click to expand...
you should stop chassing it when it becomes expensive to do so, and your example is not good enough. in your example it is better to fold as you are chassing dreams
 
I think we should mix our actions by sometimes chasing for the draws and sometimes using the fold to look for other spots. I would fold more in these spots when in final phases of the tournament and want to chase for the draws earlies in the mtt with more chips.
 
This is, in my opinion, situational. I think it depends on how deep you are in this spot, and if you call, how much you have left. Let's say, for example, there is about 30bb in the middle.
If you have 50bb and he bets big, I fold. But if I have 70bb, I mix it up—sometimes I fold, sometimes I call. If I have 100bb, I call and pray.
 
didi58xx said:
Hey everyone, I wanted to discuss a situation that occurs to me a lot and creates a dilemma especially when the pots now are getting bigger... What is your strategy like when you have reached the turn and you are still chasing for that flush or straight - but other players are now raising big...?

For example - you have a J 8 of suited hearts - flop comes 3 K A - with two of the cards being hearts - turn comes 10 - no heart yet - you are now really wishing for that heart to hit that flush and win that pot...only the river left - Do you fold now or your instinct says wait for the river...

So like I have already lost a number of chips due to chasing that flush, since other players are raising and they obviously have A or K- but this situation happens to me a lot and I do get the flush or straight at times - but honestly losing happens a lot in these situations -

So what is your take on this - do you cut your losses and fold early before the turn, or do you calculate the risk and go for it...

I would love to hear your thoughts...
Click to expand...
This can get very complicated, it depends on how many chips you have, how many chips your opponent(s) have, and so on.

If you are down to one chip, what option do you have but call? If you are right on the bubble, it might be best to fold. If you are playing a bounty tournament, how much does the player have on his head. That is before we say anything about pot odd.s
 
Last night in big mtt I had 53 suited spades with 2 opponents, board came 4 2 10 with 2 spades flop bet was small I called , turn came blank and one of them shoved. The other called and I folded. River came 6 and I would win with one of my open ended outs but I already was out of the hand at the turn.... it was scary to call. But I did the very wrong decision not to call turn risking my tournament life, later I was out not so long after the hand. Pretty sick fold I had to call for sure with these 20outs
 
alabala said:
Last night in big mtt I had 53 suited spades with 2 opponents, board came 4 2 10 with 2 spades flop bet was small I called , turn came blank and one of them shoved. The other called and I folded. River came 6 and I would win with one of my open ended outs but I already was out of the hand at the turn.... it was scary to call. But I did the very wrong decision not to call turn risking my tournament life, later I was out not so long after the hand. Pretty sick fold I had to call for sure with these 20outs
Click to expand...
With a combo draw and a 20ish bb stack you might consider jamming flop instead of calling. The jam might force out another flush draw which means your flush outs become more valuable and you may even win the pot on the flop. Building a larger stack in MTT has strong value and combo draws are great for taking the risk to build that stack. As this hand showed you could have tripled your stack allowing you to run deep in the MTT

🤔🤓
 
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alabala said:
Last night in big mtt I had 53 suited spades with 2 opponents, board came 4 2 10 with 2 spades flop bet was small I called , turn came blank and one of them shoved. The other called and I folded. River came 6 and I would win with one of my open ended outs but I already was out of the hand at the turn.... it was scary to call. But I did the very wrong decision not to call turn risking my tournament life, later I was out not so long after the hand. Pretty sick fold I had to call for sure with these 20outs
Click to expand...

eetenor said:
With a combo draw and a 20ish bb stack you might consider jamming flop instead of calling. The jam might force out another flush draw which means your flush outs become more valuable and you may even win the pot on the flop. Building a larger stack in MTT has strong value and combo draws are great for taking the risk to build that stack. As this hand showed you could have tripled your stack allowing you to run deep in the MTT

🤔🤓
Click to expand...
We 100% want to check-jam :5s4::3s4: on :10s4::4s4::2h4: rather than just call, if we are around 20BB effective against two opponents.
Against a hand like :qh4::qd4: we are ahead with 56% equity, and even against :2s4::2c4: we have 40%, plus there is a ton of dead money in the pot, if one of them fold. So this is almost a jam for value, and if we have any kind of fold equity, which we almost always does, check-jamming is super profitable. And it takes away this awkward turn situation, where we dont want to fold, but we also dont want to call a jam, because our equity has now been cut in half.
 
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Turn was blank 7 , one of them shoved the other called I fold, they show A10 and set of 4s , river came 6 not spade but winning for me, could have tripled and ko for 58$ that's the whole situation
 
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