Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation?

alan1983 · Jan 12, 2007

I think Aces are 30% to win only. Id fold.

joosebuck · Jan 12, 2007

oh yea +rep for the gr8 question self

Dorkus Malorkus · Jan 12, 2007

joosebuck said:
such a typical response.

if i were to ask "what colour is the sky?" then "blue" would be a typical response. It's a typical response for a reason.

of course i wouldn't be entering the wsop in the first place if it was such a significant % of my bankroll, but i appreciate the question was hypothetical.

in poker we must distance ourselves from our emotions and concentrate on the game. folding AA "because I don't want to be the first one out" or "because all my friends would still be in and would take the piss for years" or "because i wouldn't know what the hell to tell my family and friends" or "because so much of my money is at stake" is simply incorrect, and you are letting emotions cloud your play in thinking any of the above.

F Paulsson · Jan 12, 2007

Call without hesitation. Let me add two things that may make the call even more obvious:

1. Given that 9 players just went all-in before you, what hands are you up against? Large pocket pairs. 65s isn't calling. JTs isn't calling. You're up against 9 other big pocket pairs - and you completely annihilate those when it's just you and them, and they're drawing essentially dead when two players both have KK, for instance. You're likely to split the pot with the other guy holding AA, but hey - quintupling (never used that word before) your stack on the first hand isn't bad.

2. You're probably not a great tournament player. I know I'm not. The no-limit geniuses of hand reading, Phil Ivey et al, should be less happy about calling than Joe Blow is, because they are more likely to win on skill than on luck. Getting all-in preflop with the best hand is good and all, but it still presents usually a 30% or more risk of elimination. Of course, in this particular case any pro would call in an instant; I'm just saying that because we are NOT Daniel Negreanu, we should be even MORE inclined to make the call.

joosebuck · Jan 12, 2007

i didnt mean to sound so cross there, i just had expected more of an initial response from you than something along the lines of "you should call and if you dont you are a moron donk". i know it's the correct call, i dont think anyone is debating that. what i was asking was if you could force yourself to pull the trigger in that type of situation

Dorkus Malorkus · Jan 12, 2007

dont worry i still *heart symbol* you.

could i force myself to pull the trigger and call? i'd like to hope so - but this is sorta like asking someone "what would you do if you were upstairs and someone broke into your house?" - you can't really give an accurate or sometimes even a reliable answer unless you've actually been in said situation.

mrsnake3695 · Jan 12, 2007

Most people in the WSOP are happy to finish day one with 20,000. Here you have a good chance to get 100,000 on the first hand. I would call in about 2 seconds. Sure you are not a 50% favorite to win but you are certainly much more than 10% for it's obviously a positive play. If you fold you are in no way insured of making the money or even surviving day one. With 100K you chances of making the money and even winning are greatly increased. Unless you go brain dead or just get a run of really bad luck you should easily make day 2. Hell, you could collect your 100K and go sight seeing the rest of the day and still end up one of the chip leaders at the end. I believe a blinded off stack last year lasted until about 2 hours before the end of day one. Remember, when ever you are in any tournament the object is to win not to be able to brag you lasted longer than your firends. It's about collecting chips, this is an opportunity you may never get again. If you go card dead and go out in the first day, how are you going to feel about your fold then.

I would add one thing to the scenerio. "You are at the main table and all the whole cards will be seen by all of the world when the event is broadcast." Do you still fold?

tenbob · Jan 12, 2007

Nice thread Joose.

Would you call in a $5 sit and go ? Of course you would, so what makes this situation any different ? Being under-rolled to make the call.

Personally if i was in this situation, id have to think long and hard about what i want to achieve in the tournament. If I managed by some miricale to sat in for $5, id more than likely fold, buy then again id be there for the experience of playing the WSOP main event, and under no great illustions that i could win it. My experience would consist of more than one hand.

Thats what would be running though my mind, it it ACTUALLY HAPPENED, i dont know, but i think id make the call , considering most of the table is likely to be drawing almost dead, obv AA vs AA vs KK vs KK vs QQ vs QQ vsJJ v JJ vs 10's

Obv there will be a 10 on the turn.

joosebuck · Jan 12, 2007

Nice thread Joose.

figured it was about time i contributed something to the forum

Ronaldadio · Jan 12, 2007

WOW, what a decision!!!

I would have to call - you could probably make up your money as an after dinner speaker "My first WSOP hand was AA. I only played one hand"!!!

I would see this as the best way of someone with as little experience as me increasing my chip stack x 9, then I could tighten up.

Another question here would be if you were in the same situation, but you got one person raising 5 times bb and 2 callers to you, what would you do? With my lack of experience I would push all in. I would need to do this because I would only be comfortable if an A hit a rainbow flop with a 7 and a 2, so I may as well go all in earlier rather than later!!!

Good post

joosebuck · Jan 12, 2007

you shouldnt be all-inning with 10k starting chips for a long while. you have enough chips/time to take your time accumulating them.

dj11 · Jan 12, 2007

In one of the TV shows about the WSOP, it was mentioned that if a player were to fold every hand, he would still be there at the beginning of day 3 !

Take that into account, and the fact that the table would fill up instantly, or you would be moved to another table instantly, you can discard the 9-1 stack issue. Most likely you would NOT be pitted against that stack.

If (and it is not that way now) it were a winner take all thing, You have to play the AA. If 9 players are in it, you would need to play almost anything. IMHO though in the BB I would, in that case, feel better playing 67 (even unsuited) than rockets.

I would love to be watching that hand as the dealer.

Ronaldadio · Jan 12, 2007

joosebuck said:
you shouldnt be all-inning with 10k starting chips for a long while. you have enough chips/time to take your time accumulating them.

I agree. I was not aware it was 10k starting chips. What are the blinds?

blankoblanco · Jan 12, 2007

I believe it starts at 25/50 blinds. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

hott_estelle · Jan 12, 2007

Dorkus Malorkus said:
- you can't really give an accurate or sometimes even a reliable answer unless you've actually been in said situation.

That is exactly what I say about a lot of hypothetical questions asked towards me. But still, it is fun to contemplate, isn't it?

brown110 · Jan 12, 2007

I think I'd make that call. Even though I would've worked my ass off for a year in order to get there... I would've worked my ass off in order to win big, and the best chance to win big is by making the call with the aces.

mrsnake3695 · Jan 12, 2007

I don't know where the information came from about if someone folded every hand they would still be in on day 3. That is definately incorrect. Last year I believe one of the pros made a mistake about his starting day and he never showed up to play and his stack was blinded off. "He" went broke about 2 hours before the end of day one, so there is no way you can last until day 3 folding every hand.

And just what are we trying to accomplish here? Do you just want to say you played in the world series and didn't get busted in the first hand or are you trying to win. If you are not trying to win then you really shouldn't be playing in the first place. If you are trying to win it's an easy call.

By the way, fun thread.

hott_estelle · Jan 12, 2007

mrsnake3695 said:
And just what are we trying to accomplish here? Do you just want to say you played in the world series and didn't get busted in the first hand or are you trying to win. If you are not trying to win then you really shouldn't be playing in the first place. If you are trying to win it's an easy call.

By the way, fun thread.

I don't think its an easy call. I think it definitely would seem obvious to call, to anyone who just began playing all the way to Phil Ivey, but it shouldn't be easy with everyone else on the table all-in in front of you. I think everyone will react differently to this situation, which is why it is a fun topic to discuss.

mrsnake3695 · Jan 12, 2007

Hell there's plenty to do in Vegas anyway if you get busted.

joosebuck · Jan 12, 2007

like get busted again. but by the police.

momoftwo · Jan 14, 2007

i believe i would and definetly could fold aces if i thought i was in a bad spot. fold and live to play another day. anythings possible in texas holdem

dj11 · Jan 14, 2007

Forgive my aging memory please. I heard the early 3rd day thing while watching the 2005 WSOP.

Daniel Negraneu showed up several hours late at one televised event. I remember thinking that it may have been calculated to avoid all the maniacs gunning for him at the outset.

When sitting at any online tourney I have played I have learned to be most fearful of a first hand big hand. I would, these days, like to think I would fold those aces, and consider it a sign from the poker gods that the cards won't totally suck today. Remember, in tourney play one of the tenents is to survive to fight another day. Yes the 'over time' odds say the payoff odds are in your favor. But this special situation deserves special considerations.

I agree this is one of the more interesting philosopical questions to consider. Think of a bigger picture. I would like to involve as much of my experience as possible in the decision.

For all but one at that table, it would be a heart attack hand.

Seperate question. Since I can remember, there has been mention of the poker gods. Why are they not named? The Greek Gods all have names, as do the Romans.

Is it because they have never personally introduced themselves, or is it because we never assigned names to them.

Bob, the big bad boggieman of bad beats.
Flossie the floosie of flushes.
Stratos the stalwart of straights.
Paul the punk of pairs.

DJ, the demon of indecision....

zowzza · Jan 14, 2007

Nice post there DJ, well thought and well stated.

Irexes · Jan 14, 2007

Nice work DJ, surely we need a Goddess of the River... Closest I can get is Satet Goddess of the Nile. Also known as the "One Who Shoots" which would mean she could double up at craps.

As for the AA, I'd call because

a) it would be a story to dine out on forever.
b) it would be covered in all the media at the event.
c) if I win I'm in very good shape
d) if I lose I get lots of sympathy from everyone

If I fold and it would have held up then if it happens to be televised my name would become a watchword for not having any balls. Of course if I fold and would have lost then I'd be a hero.... so who knows.

bubbasbestbabe · Jan 14, 2007

I have a different read on this. Lately I've been playing freeolls and play chip tourneys and you see stuff there just like you are describing here. 8 or 9 player allins first hand. And the hands that you describe are what the calls are on. AA,KK,QQ, AK,AQ,AJ,1010, and say a 57 suited. And you know what wins 9 out of 10 times? The 57 because it has more cards that it can catch for a winning hand. I know people here are going to say that it is bullshit about this but start playing those type of games and you will see what I am talking about.
The correct odds on play would be to call but if you want to play on, lay it down.

Could you lay down aces in this hypothetical situation?

alan1983

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joosebuck

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Dorkus Malorkus

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F Paulsson

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joosebuck

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Dorkus Malorkus

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mrsnake3695

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tenbob

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joosebuck

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Ronaldadio

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joosebuck

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dj11

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Ronaldadio

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blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode

hott_estelle

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brown110

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mrsnake3695

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