Does luck really exist when playing online poker, or do the sites profile and segment players however they want?
Luck exists, especially in the short term; in the long term, skill and game management are more important. As for whether platforms create player profiles, they can use data for segmentation and marketing, but that doesn't mean they manipulate the cards. Without sufficient evidence or statistical data, a bad streak can simply be a matter of chance.
Luck in poker refers to variance. Variance is always present no matter online or live. There are some great variance charts you can find online to get an idea of how long the long term can actually be.
Mtt sims show that 6k MTT is not long enough to overcome variances for all players for instance.
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Mtt sims show that 6k MTT is not long enough to overcome variances for all players for instance.
🤔🤓
| Statement | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Luck/variance exists | Yes, unquestionably |
| Online poker produces more extreme situations | Yes |
| Platforms profile their players | Yes, it is entirely plausible and, in some respects, evident |
| Poker rooms have incentives to look after recreational players | Yes |
| Bots/RTA/collusion/ghosting exist | Yes, this is documented |
| A poker room can technically manipulate the RNG | Yes |
| It has been proven that major poker rooms deliberately manipulate the cards based on each individual player | No |
| Players' accusations constitute proof | No |
| It can be investigated statistically | Yes, and this would be far more convincing than analyzing individual bad beats |
Luck may exist on an individual and short term basis. Variance can be particularly disgusting on line. 😂 However, I would have to disagree that it is a product of sites profiling individuals based on personal poker style in order to dictate winners and losers, unless you have a source as to why this may be true.
In the long run, your personal skill and strategy will eventually outweigh variance, unless you are talking about a very large sample size in which case you aren't really playing poker anymore, you're just pushing chips around. ♠️
In the long run, your personal skill and strategy will eventually outweigh variance, unless you are talking about a very large sample size in which case you aren't really playing poker anymore, you're just pushing chips around. ♠️
It definitely seems like its pre determined sometimes; you can call out a winner early. Everything they doelrucon said:
just works out; get it in bad, no problem. But the thing is, you see that in live games too, and they have no RNG
or control, well, unless you are Mike Postle, but look at any wsop winners' footage and see they got lucky over and over and over.
Nothing surprises me about online poker, but I have to believe it's legit.
nah it’s just variance man. people get hit with a bad downswing and instantly think the RNG is rigged or the site is targeting them. when you play thousands of hands online, you're just gonna see way more crazy beats than you ever would live.
Luck in poker is real, but its role is limited in time. Your job as a player is to stop making excuses for bad luck and stop overestimating your skills because of luck. Record your decisions, not your results. If you played poorly but won, don't rejoice; instead, analyze your mistakes. If you played correctly but lost the pot, accept it as part of the process and move on. In the long run, skill always outweighs luck.
It really does happen. I’ve managed to win plenty of pre-flop all-ins with random cards that beat pocket Aces, just as I’ve also suffered losses with those same kinds of hands. I believe luck plays a part in 10% of the game; 90% is skill.
