Reasonably big move against Miami in late betting, into -4 now. Putting one unit on that on principle, given Massey Peabody are keen on them even at -5 (they actually have the line at -8.15, if my math is correct...)
Yeah, something like that. They've blown out some bad teams though, which MP gives too much credit for.OzExorcist said:
I'm staying away.
I think I have four plays this week. Here's the five I do for the betting pool.
Cleveland -3 - I'm not a Ryan Mallet believer. His preseason stats have not been good. He averaged 5.9 YPA in the 2013 preseason, 4.5 YPA the 2012 preseason, and 5.7 YPA in his rookie preseason. A 5.9 YPA is the same as Geno Smith this year. Derek Carr clocks in at 5.6 this year, and Blaine Gabbert has averaged 5.6 YPA for his career. And that is Mallet's preseason numbers against scrubs, they likely won't get a ton better. I bet the market is under-rating Mallet's shittyness.
Detroit +2 - I'm not a Drew Stanton believer. His season stats have not been good... wait this is the same thing I wrote up there. Plus the statistical guys don't like the Cards (15th in DVOA). They've relied on fluky plays (pick sixes, 70+ yard touchdowns) that just don't happen every week to get wins.
Washington -7.5 - Josh McCown still sucks, so I'm still betting that Tampa will under-perform compared to what they've done up to this point. Plus the 'Skins have RG3 back, and the market might assume he's about the same as Cousins/McCoy.
Green Bay -5 - Yep, I'm betting against Sanchez again. Maybe this time the opposing QB won't be hiding an injury (no one believes you Ron). Short week doesn't help Iggles either.
NY Giants +4 - This game could very well be a trap. Coughlin is the kind of coach a team can quit on. He's a disciplinarian who has authority when he's winning, but when he's about to be fired, no one's scared of his wrath. But I'm out of angles, and I think the 49'ers might've been let back into the circle of trust a little too soon. They're still only 16th in DVOA. And I don't think Aldon Smith plays a full set of snaps.
Chi -3.5 (buy low play), Ten +5/+6 is also interesting (MP breakeven play, Pitt might still be a little over-valued, Mettenberger looked okay). I also like the over in the Miami/Buffalo game. Miami & Buffalo are both good pass defenses, but their offenses are run based. Prolly see a little more running carrying the offense than the public thinks.
I think there might be value in lines that sit at +2.5/+6.5 for dogs and -3.5/-7.5 for favorites. People are hesitant to bet them, so maybe we can get a little value because demand is low.
Also, Mario Williams had 3.5 sacks, and the Dolphins routinely got pressure on Tannehill. But Tannehill handled it really well, stepping up in the pocket and avoiding turnovers. Really impressed.
Also, Mario Williams had 3.5 sacks, and the Dolphins routinely got pressure on Tannehill. But Tannehill handled it really well, stepping up in the pocket and avoiding turnovers. Really impressed.
I'm -4 units on the season, but here's my picks....
Miami +7 - I was really impressed with Tannehill. Branden Albert, their all-pro left tackle was out against the Bills, and Mario Williams consistently getting pressure on Tannehill. Even though Williams had 3.5 sacks in the game, Tannehill played well despite the pressure, consistently stepping up in the pocket. I'm back on the Miami train. Plus the statistical guys love them.
Washington +9 - This is a pretty simple "you're not as bad as you looked last week" pick. San Francisco barely beat the Giants even though Eli Manning tossed FIVE picks. They're not good. Washington is better than they showed against the Bucs as well.
Seattle -7 - Arizona is kinda a fraud. They rank 15th in DVOA, and Drew Stanton is a dropoff from Carson Palmer. The reckoning is coming at some point here. Seattle will be a little undervalued coming off a tough loss to the Chiefs, and their home field is still ridiculous.
Baltimore +3 - John Harbaugh is 5-1 against the spread coming off a bye. The Ravens are 3rd in the league in point differential, and 3rd in DVOA. They're clearly better than the Saints, and this line treats them like equals. Wtf!
Buffalo -2.5 - This game is still more of a home game for Buffalo than NY, and the lack of practice time is going to be overblown here. They've already played each other, Buffalo is coming off the mini-bye, and Rex Ryan is just waiting to get fired. A rested Buffalo pass rush eats Vick alive.
Miami +7 - I was really impressed with Tannehill. Branden Albert, their all-pro left tackle was out against the Bills, and Mario Williams consistently getting pressure on Tannehill. Even though Williams had 3.5 sacks in the game, Tannehill played well despite the pressure, consistently stepping up in the pocket. I'm back on the Miami train. Plus the statistical guys love them.
Washington +9 - This is a pretty simple "you're not as bad as you looked last week" pick. San Francisco barely beat the Giants even though Eli Manning tossed FIVE picks. They're not good. Washington is better than they showed against the Bucs as well.
Seattle -7 - Arizona is kinda a fraud. They rank 15th in DVOA, and Drew Stanton is a dropoff from Carson Palmer. The reckoning is coming at some point here. Seattle will be a little undervalued coming off a tough loss to the Chiefs, and their home field is still ridiculous.
Baltimore +3 - John Harbaugh is 5-1 against the spread coming off a bye. The Ravens are 3rd in the league in point differential, and 3rd in DVOA. They're clearly better than the Saints, and this line treats them like equals. Wtf!
Buffalo -2.5 - This game is still more of a home game for Buffalo than NY, and the lack of practice time is going to be overblown here. They've already played each other, Buffalo is coming off the mini-bye, and Rex Ryan is just waiting to get fired. A rested Buffalo pass rush eats Vick alive.
Dallas -7.5 - Common sentiment among bettors is that this line would be -10.5 if Romo was healthy. A 3 point reduction seems like an over-reaction. Romo will take a cortisone shot, and be good for the game. Bryce Petty (Baylor QB) had the same injury earlier this year, missed 1 week, and then came back fine throwing a great game against the University of Buffalo. Dallas rolls in London. Plus, not even Londoners will cheer for the Jags right? - NO WE DON'T - I AM A COWBOYS FAN AND HAVE BEEN SINCE 1982.
Romo definate a starter? I'm not so sure. Cowboys still win without him.
Watch for Fleaner at TE for Colts - He will figure this week, with a good haul 😀😀😀
Romo definate a starter? I'm not so sure. Cowboys still win without him.
Watch for Fleaner at TE for Colts - He will figure this week, with a good haul 😀😀😀
First bets for this week:
Mia -6
Bal -5.5
Buf -2.5
Massey Peabody are keen on all three, and think Miami and Baltimore are prob still being underrated by the public. Miami in particular... I know they're on the road, but less than a TD against the dumpster fire that is the Jets? I don't think they travel that badly.
As for the Buffalo game, I think Cleveland are probably being overrated just for being better than they have been in previous seasons. Cleveland-Atlanta was a game I actually got to see last week (we don't get many down here) and while yes, they won the game, they looked pretty sloppy and needed a bunch of help from Atlanta's mistakes to get over the line.
MP also have big plays on three games / lines that make me nervous as hell: Chi+7, Car+2.5/3 and Atl+2.5.
Anyone see the merit in them?
Mia -6
Bal -5.5
Buf -2.5
Massey Peabody are keen on all three, and think Miami and Baltimore are prob still being underrated by the public. Miami in particular... I know they're on the road, but less than a TD against the dumpster fire that is the Jets? I don't think they travel that badly.
As for the Buffalo game, I think Cleveland are probably being overrated just for being better than they have been in previous seasons. Cleveland-Atlanta was a game I actually got to see last week (we don't get many down here) and while yes, they won the game, they looked pretty sloppy and needed a bunch of help from Atlanta's mistakes to get over the line.
MP also have big plays on three games / lines that make me nervous as hell: Chi+7, Car+2.5/3 and Atl+2.5.
Anyone see the merit in them?
That's a 9 point swing from a neutral line, and home field might even be bigger this year with the uptick in penalty calls. 9 points is huge in the NFL. Denver swung the line 13 when they played there earlier this year, and they were considered far and away the best team in the league. I like Miami too, but the shine is starting to wear off them. People are realizing they're good.OzExorcist said:
I see no merit in the Carolina call. MP has them as a middle of the pack team, but DVOA has them near the bottom. I wouldn't be so pumped about taking Carolina on a purely statistical argument. But they are coming off a bye that they sorely needed. So maybe they get more out of the bye than the usual 1 point bump. Plus I trust Rivera to prep his team better than average, but that might be Carolina bias.OzExorcist said:
Atlanta & Chicago I like. Chicago lost two big public games on the road against great teams. No fault in that. But for some reason the public has declared them a dumpster fire comparable to Tampa.
Last edited:
Here's my picks for my betting pool. But if I were betting for realz, I'd stay away from the Carolina pick.
Chi +7 - Chicago was blown out on the road against quality opponents (GB, NE). No shame in that. Detroit isn't the same since they lost Fairley (interior pass rusher), and Riley Reiff (their left tackle). Matt Stafford is 2nd in the league in sacks. This isn't the same quality opponent. Earlier in the year, the Bears were getting 6 against New England on the road. Now they're getting 7 at Detroit. Seems like an over-reaction to me.
Mia -6.5 - I don't like laying points on the road, but yeah, Miami is that good. They rank 2nd in Team Efficiency, fifth in DVOA. They're still being treated like an only above average team. Geno's had time to prep, fix some of his faults, and heal minor injuries, so that bothers me a bit, but not enough to keep me away.
Buf -2.5 - So let's see. Orton's QB rating is 96, Hoyer's is 82. Buffalo's pass rush has the most sacks in the league. So I get home field at less than a field goal, a better QB, and a better pass rush? Sometimes it's that easy.
Atl +2.5 - Still ridin' the "Drew Stanton and the Cardinals are not what their record shows" train.
Car +2.5 - I can't quit you Cam. Carolina's getting a bye when their whole team is wrecked. They get more than the usual 1 point bump coming out of the bye due to their multitude of injuries, and the fact that I think Rivera is an above average coach. Minnesota hung tough against Green Bay last week, but that's a divisional game. They know Rodgers well. Now they have to face an unfamiliar opponent with a week's less prep time. And Carolina can still make the playoffs!
Chi +7 - Chicago was blown out on the road against quality opponents (GB, NE). No shame in that. Detroit isn't the same since they lost Fairley (interior pass rusher), and Riley Reiff (their left tackle). Matt Stafford is 2nd in the league in sacks. This isn't the same quality opponent. Earlier in the year, the Bears were getting 6 against New England on the road. Now they're getting 7 at Detroit. Seems like an over-reaction to me.
Mia -6.5 - I don't like laying points on the road, but yeah, Miami is that good. They rank 2nd in Team Efficiency, fifth in DVOA. They're still being treated like an only above average team. Geno's had time to prep, fix some of his faults, and heal minor injuries, so that bothers me a bit, but not enough to keep me away.
Buf -2.5 - So let's see. Orton's QB rating is 96, Hoyer's is 82. Buffalo's pass rush has the most sacks in the league. So I get home field at less than a field goal, a better QB, and a better pass rush? Sometimes it's that easy.
Atl +2.5 - Still ridin' the "Drew Stanton and the Cardinals are not what their record shows" train.
Car +2.5 - I can't quit you Cam. Carolina's getting a bye when their whole team is wrecked. They get more than the usual 1 point bump coming out of the bye due to their multitude of injuries, and the fact that I think Rivera is an above average coach. Minnesota hung tough against Green Bay last week, but that's a divisional game. They know Rodgers well. Now they have to face an unfamiliar opponent with a week's less prep time. And Carolina can still make the playoffs!
Here's my picks for my betting pool this week. For what it's worth, I think only the first 3-4 are worth betting on.
Kansas City +1.5 - Love the zig-zag play here, with KC looking bad against Denver last Sunday. And I'm sure you know by now how I feel about Drew Stanton vs. Carson Palmer. Arizona is a below average team by DVOA, they shouldn't be spotting KC any points here.
Pittsburgh +3 - Roethlisberger is a better QB than Dalton (102.7 vs. 82.3 QB rating). The Steelers have a better pass rush, and the Bengals lost their starting right tackle. The Steelers have a higher DVOA. The Steelers have fumbled the ball 14 times and lost 10, so a little unlucky in the turnover department. Just looking for a small edge in a game where the line says they're dead even.
Miami -2.5 - Yes, I bet on Miami every week. But the Ravens lost Ngata to suspension, and these teams are even by just about every metric, so this line should be 3.
San Francisco -8 - Man this is a lot of wood to lay on the road with a team I don't like, especially with Oakland coming off a bad loss. But the Oakland crowd will have a lot of 49'er fans there, so it's not REALLY a 3 point home field. Plus the 49'ers get the extra rest here from playing on Thanksgiving.
Buffalo +10 - The Bills & Chiefs have a DVOA difference of 4% (they're ranked 9th and 8th respectively). However, the line last week had the Broncos as a 4.5 point better team than the Chiefs, but now they're 6 points better than the Bills? Buffalo is under rated, and I'll sell high on Denver after they looked good against the Cheifs Sunday night.
Kansas City +1.5 - Love the zig-zag play here, with KC looking bad against Denver last Sunday. And I'm sure you know by now how I feel about Drew Stanton vs. Carson Palmer. Arizona is a below average team by DVOA, they shouldn't be spotting KC any points here.
Pittsburgh +3 - Roethlisberger is a better QB than Dalton (102.7 vs. 82.3 QB rating). The Steelers have a better pass rush, and the Bengals lost their starting right tackle. The Steelers have a higher DVOA. The Steelers have fumbled the ball 14 times and lost 10, so a little unlucky in the turnover department. Just looking for a small edge in a game where the line says they're dead even.
Miami -2.5 - Yes, I bet on Miami every week. But the Ravens lost Ngata to suspension, and these teams are even by just about every metric, so this line should be 3.
San Francisco -8 - Man this is a lot of wood to lay on the road with a team I don't like, especially with Oakland coming off a bad loss. But the Oakland crowd will have a lot of 49'er fans there, so it's not REALLY a 3 point home field. Plus the 49'ers get the extra rest here from playing on Thanksgiving.
Buffalo +10 - The Bills & Chiefs have a DVOA difference of 4% (they're ranked 9th and 8th respectively). However, the line last week had the Broncos as a 4.5 point better team than the Chiefs, but now they're 6 points better than the Bills? Buffalo is under rated, and I'll sell high on Denver after they looked good against the Cheifs Sunday night.
I'm doing my first Parlay this weekend.
$5 on the below
Packers > Bills -6
Lions > Vikings -7.5
Giants > Redskins -7
Panthers > Buccs -3
I've been told I'm in trouble with the Giants pick but eh, first try, feel okay about all of it, we'll see. Learning for next year 😉
$5 on the below
Packers > Bills -6
Lions > Vikings -7.5
Giants > Redskins -7
Panthers > Buccs -3
I've been told I'm in trouble with the Giants pick but eh, first try, feel okay about all of it, we'll see. Learning for next year 😉