I am wary of using any bonuses on any sites. I had a bad experience in this context. Once I used the promo code, I got a small bonus for playing in the casino, $20. Then after several months, when I had accumulated quite a large amount, I could not withdraw my money because PokerStars blocked my application on the grounds that I did not fulfill all the necessary conditions regarding the bonus I received from them. I tried for a long time to fulfill all the conditions, and later they allowed me to get my money. But after this incident, I decided for myself that all these bonuses and codes are not for me 🙂
.... and by the way, you made a pretty cool bet and I think it's quite realistic. Good luck 🙂