Critical Analysis of the 10 BB Shove/Fold Rule

Andyreas said:

That's actually worse than a coin flip, if we assume BB can have any two cards:

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We shouldn't assume that, because for villain with 100% range -> more then 50% chance to win preflop -> actually better then coin flip preflop -> I would be shoving Q2 all day long preflop -> look below.
The point here is not to win by equity, it's not like it's pocket aces, duh .
Miniraise, not limp, so some will fold. Getting to flop with a villain which probably has around 25% typical range, the more, the better. I'm shoving.
What could call us which wouldn't be a mistake? Right move here is folding even AKish hands, overcards, which has only 24% of hitting etc etc. Strong hands which would beat us would probably reraise prefold, allowing us to escape (is that right Kinalha ?). In worst case if someone calls with air, based on hunch, Q2 has almost 40% on river.
Yes, it's 10% less equity then as we were shoving Q2 pf (if we assume 100% range for villain), but on the flop we are eliminating bunch of cards villain can call us with (100%-30%=70% of the time villain won't hit even a pair, or anything, is that right Kinalha ?). In 70% of cases villain should fold on the flop then, making it much, much better then coin flip.

Andyreas said:

View attachment 315201

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How did you get this screenshot, even when I put in, as a range, one hand, it gives me 0,3%, not 0. Here:

Kinalha said:

Oh, you prayge for this flop when get called with 10 BB, and think your opponent don't call you with any pair or overs? or worse if the BB calls and hit all this cards range

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I answered in the post above, to Andyreas post. It's a mistake calling with overcards and similar, long term. You playing by a hunch, heh?

Kinalha said:

using the example you did on board 337 if you shove the flop, you will get called with all flop hits, and BB hands like 54/63/24/65 because YOU give equity to all these hands by raising with 10 bbs. If you just shove pre-flop, you'd pull in some chips, and keep your tournament life, but after YOU give equity to these weak hands, you might fall out of the tournament for giving those hands equity. (assuming that the BB or whoever calls you has a stack that favors more calls)

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I put in 2bb, 1.5bb+ante, let's say pot is around 4.5bb, one needs to put in 2bb, this is 30ish%, kinda break even even for hitting a pair, as you rightly pointed out. But yeah, let's say this has been called with such hands, anything which didn't hit should actually fold from equity point of view. On the flop I'm ahead most of the time against someone who doesn't know my holdings. Most shorts will fold, maybe I would be called by some big stacks with A-high or pockets, which probably would call a shove anyway preflop. And on the river, according to plain math, it's almost 40% anyway.

Kinalha said:

I have a question, you play regular mtts or only freerolls?

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Do you play either? Because it's not that much of a difference from math point of view.
This time you focused when you read and answered, meaning I was right, though you surprisingly didn't mention it.
I hope I didn't hurt your feelings catching you on bullshit reading .
Will this be a flame war or we agree to disagree?

D0nk3y Hunt3r said:

I answered in the post above, to Andyreas post. It's a mistake calling with overcards and similar, long term. You playing by a hunch, heh?

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Do you think any axes folded this flop? you with 10 bb's? tell me what tournament is this, who are the players who fold in this situation, i need money

D0nk3y Hunt3r said:

I put in 2bb, 1.5bb+ante, let's say pot is around 4.5bb, one needs to put in 2bb, this is 30ish%, kinda break even even for hitting a pair, as you rightly pointed out. But yeah, let's say this has been called with such hands, anything which didn't hit should actually fold from equity point of view. On the flop I'm ahead most of the time against someone who doesn't know my holdings. Most shorts will fold, maybe I would be called by some big stacks with A-high or pockets, which probably would call a shove anyway preflop. And on the river, according to plain math, it's almost 40% anyway.

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The point is to deny equity for SB/BB and anothers with hands like K9/KT and maaaany others who u can make fold for you all in pre flop and you is loosing for them, but can flat call your raise 2x, is it really that hard to understand?

D0nk3y Hunt3r said:

Do you play either? Because it's not that much of a difference from math point of view.
This time you focused when you read and answered, meaning I was right, though you surprisingly didn't mention it.
I hope I didn't hurt your feelings catching you on bullshit reading

.
Will this be a flame war or we agree to disagree?

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You are funny in stubbornness. In poker, I'm of the opinion that you should never make the same plays over and over, and certainly playing very aggressively Q2s can sometimes raise with 10 bb's depending on various game factors and how the table behaves... but you're trying to say that ''sometimes'' that I mention playing raises with Q2s with this amount of chips that is more or less 5%, it's something to do more constantly, and when I say more constantly 10% already it's too much, you're going to lose money in the long run playing like this. Hands like 67s have more value in playing raising 2bbs with that stack than with Q2. I think you are convinced that it is the best way to play with Q2, and I propose you to play tournaments over $10 buy-in or cash games over 0.10/0.25 cent blinds. Put a thousand dollars, and see how long that money will last

Gl at the tables bro

D0nk3y Hunt3r said:

We shouldn't assume that, because for villain with 100% range -> more then 50% chance to win preflop -> actually better then coin flip preflop -> I would be shoving Q2 all day long preflop -> look below.
The point here is not to win by equity, it's not like it's pocket aces, duh .
Miniraise, not limp, so some will fold. Getting to flop with a villain which probably has around 25% typical range, the more, the better. I'm shoving.
What could call us which wouldn't be a mistake? Right move here is folding even AKish hands, overcards, which has only 24% of hitting etc etc. Strong hands which would beat us would probably reraise prefold, allowing us to escape (is that right Kinalha ?). In worst case if someone calls with air, based on hunch, Q2 has almost 40% on river.
Yes, it's 10% less equity then as we were shoving Q2 pf (if we assume 100% range for villain), but on the flop we are eliminating bunch of cards villain can call us with (100%-30%=70% of the time villain won't hit even a pair, or anything, is that right Kinalha ?). In 70% of cases villain should fold on the flop then, making it much, much better then coin flip.


How did you get this screenshot, even when I put in, as a range, one hand, it gives me 0,3%, not 0. Here:
View attachment 315237View attachment 315238

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Again I ask you, where did you find these players who fold ANY Ax on this flop against a 10bb guy, let alone AK per trap. If you're going to watch a stream of players with more expensive buy-ins, you'll sometimes see Kx calling on this sister flop. If you're finding players with acceptable stacks who flat Ax against your raise, and fold this flop, it's not because you c-bet and pulled the pot that makes this a good play, it's because the players you're facing are really bad

Of course you can always find situations, where your opponents are doing something wrong, and then you can exploit them by adjusting to their mistakes. In the example given in the article both players in the blinds have the same range for calling a 10BB jam as for rejamming over a minraise. This however is not the NASH equilibrium. A rejamming range is supposed to me much wider than a range for calling a jam from another player, especially if its near the bubble or on the final table.

Also BB can defend by calling, and a lot of hands are profitable to defend by calling a minraise. So there is clearly no reason, why BB should fold 80% of hands to a min-raise, and almost no players do. But of course if you KNOW, that this particular player wont defend his blinds enough to a min-raise, then sure go ahead and minraise. This is no different than the fact, that if you know, BB is always going to call, then the most profitable line, if it folds to you in SB with AA or KK, is to simply move all-in, even if you are 100BB deep. But you need very solid information to make such a big exploit.

BelFish said:

Then tell what you mean by normal play. After all, we are talking about a stack of 10bb. Does he call all-ins 1/3 of the time? Or do you mean raise over 2BB? But raising 3BB, or even 2.5BB with a 10BB stack is probably not very right, then shoving is definitely better...

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No I'm not talking about shoving, just min-raising. In mtts when you're short stacked and you do a min-raise you're showing more strength than shoving.
A noraml play is the one which is statistically precievable as correct, if every orbit you min-raise from the button you'll not get much credit for that, the blinds will fight back.

rastapapolos said:

No I'm not talking about shoving, just min-raising. In mtts when you're short stacked and you do a min-raise you're showing more strength than shoving.

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By the way, i have often seen raises from short stacks to 4bb or more with a stack of ~ 10bb. And it was done by pretty good players. I think this raise is scarier than a min-raise or an all-in.

This raise actually means all-in, but it's not really all-in, the player is just kind of giving us a message that he will call any reraise and will go all-in on all flops anyway if someone just calls his raise.

I'd like to know if these almost half-stack raises make sense, and if so, in what situations or against what types of opponents do they work best

BelFish said:

I'd like to know if these almost half-stack raises make sense, and if so, in what situations or against what types of opponents do they work best

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For that you need a big dataset on which you'll perform an EDA (exploratory data analysis) to conclude something.
When you do commit yourself with a x4 raise and you're short stacked it's the same logic behind an all-in. I've seen that from good players too, but the response differs from one player to another, I think it's correlated with the understanding of the game that every player has, his background, his stack, his mood..etc
A game of incomplete informations.

Kinalha said:

Do you think any axes folded this flop? you with 10 bb's? tell me what tournament is this, who are the players who fold in this situation, i need money

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Do you think any aces wouldn't reraise? With 10bbs? And then Q2 could escape before flap.

Kinalha said:

The point is to deny equity for SB/BB and anothers with hands like K9/KT and maaaany others who u can make fold for you all in pre flop and you is loosing for them, but can flat call your raise 2x, is it really that hard to understand?

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This I agree, not calling from BB/SB is a mistake. Though we are talking about reaching a flop, calling my shove by KT/K9 is questionable, my any A-high would beat it. I'm not sure whether I would call with K9/KT on flop if I were on the other side, exactly because of this: Ax is very popular among shorts.

Kinalha said:

You are funny in stubbornness.

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Funny thing , thought about you same way, bro.

Kinalha said:

In poker, I'm of the opinion that you should never make the same plays over and over

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True.

Kinalha said:

, and certainly playing very aggressively Q2s can sometimes raise with 10 bb's depending on various game factors and how the table behaves... but you're trying to say that ''sometimes'' that I mention playing raises with Q2s with this amount of chips that is more or less 5%, it's something to do more constantly, and when I say more constantly 10% already it's too much, you're going to lose money in the long run playing like this.

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Agree. Situation I've presented supposed to be rare.

Kinalha said:

and I propose you to play tournaments over $10 buy-in or cash games over 0.10/0.25 cent blinds. Put a thousand dollars, and see how long that money will last

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I haven't noticed that much of a difference. Actually there was more folds on higher stakes. Yes, to mini-raise.

Kinalha said:

Gl at the tables bro

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Thank you, same.

Kinalha said:

If you're finding players with acceptable stacks who flat Ax against your raise, and fold this flop, it's not because you c-bet and pulled the pot that makes this a good play, it's because the players you're facing are really bad

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I understand, what you mean, players with Ax would usually reraise pf. But that's the whole point of possible escape plan. Of course there can be trappers, but that's only part of the ranges of part of the villains.

rastapapolos said:

For that you need a big dataset on which you'll perform an EDA (exploratory data analysis) to conclude something.
A game of incomplete informations.

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Well, that's why I asked in this thread about observations. Playing right vs what mainstream usually does on the tables are not always the same thing. I'm asking what works.

Additional reading, dude nicely put in words what I meant (article focuses on calling, but the underlying principles are the same). I didn't know this name, btw, I like to call it FoldConfusion .
Stop and go

Shoving with them is actually almost below coin flip. Being usually called, you are usually behind. Now, if you limp, you have 1 in 9 chances to hit a set and act accordingly, or fold, having another chance at next hand.