In the last time that I returned to the freeroll club I won a freeroll on the first day, an Intertops freeroll. After that I played thousands of tournaments and no other win. I managed at most a second place on GGPoker.
The first time I registered in CC was a long time ago and I don't really remember how long it took me to be a champion.
I've been a little tired of poker for a few weeks and haven't played. But I know that in a while I'll want to play again and go back to the tables.
The first time I registered in CC was a long time ago and I don't really remember how long it took me to be a champion.
I've been a little tired of poker for a few weeks and haven't played. But I know that in a while I'll want to play again and go back to the tables.
Also, I notice that some players have my number. There are a few Donkmeister Flexes who have taken me out with single-digit outters repeatedly.
That is poker I guess. Luck is on bad players side. You can't get lucky if you dont get it in as the dog.
That is poker I guess. Luck is on bad players side. You can't get lucky if you dont get it in as the dog.
It took me three months after joining Cards Chat, two months after joining the freeroll club (platinum). That win was back on June 18th (the first Thursday Bet Online game).
Since June, I have been lucky enough to win six more freerolls. This is because I enter every one I can, and I get VERY lucky. I am not any better than average. It really is just showing up and getting lucky.
I've found a tight aggressive play works best in these freerolls. Last night, my VPIP was under 20% (I got 3rd). It is also vital to have a good short stacked strategy. By the final two tables, everybody is under 20BB (except maybe the chip leader).
Luck is the most important factor. You need at least three good beats to win, often as many as a dozen. My last win, I busted AA, KK, and QQ all on the final table. I also got quads twice. Hard to lose when luck is shining its light on you.
Since June, I have been lucky enough to win six more freerolls. This is because I enter every one I can, and I get VERY lucky. I am not any better than average. It really is just showing up and getting lucky.
I've found a tight aggressive play works best in these freerolls. Last night, my VPIP was under 20% (I got 3rd). It is also vital to have a good short stacked strategy. By the final two tables, everybody is under 20BB (except maybe the chip leader).
Luck is the most important factor. You need at least three good beats to win, often as many as a dozen. My last win, I busted AA, KK, and QQ all on the final table. I also got quads twice. Hard to lose when luck is shining its light on you.
Not sure on the cardchat freerolls on Pokerstars. I've final tabled many, and won some back in 2018. I used to keep half of the money from the final table prizes for shots at tournaments above my bank balance.
What I do remember is my first tournament win, which was a $50 freeroll and my 2nd ever tournament online. It set me up for building up my bankroll from $0 all the way up to $500+ before losing interest and withdrawing the money. It was a hard fought 6 hour battle for $9.66 🙂
What I do remember is my first tournament win, which was a $50 freeroll and my 2nd ever tournament online. It set me up for building up my bankroll from $0 all the way up to $500+ before losing interest and withdrawing the money. It was a hard fought 6 hour battle for $9.66 🙂
I won 1 PS tournament without split the prizes. A couple of days ago i won first place, but there was a deal for 3 people. Once i got a disconnect at the final table of the weekly tournament when there were 5 people left and took second place in sit-out mode )) (my stack was, it seems, more than the sum of the stacks of all players at the time of the disconnect). Once i won first place in the monthly tournament on Titan. And once i was the first at BOL. I took 2nd place several times. This is all taken about a year of playing in a freeroll club.
In general, you can roughly estimate the probability using the formulas...
For example, let's assume that the skill of all participants is approximately the same, and that 250 people are always involved (for PS). There are 6 freerolls per week, which means about 300 freerolls per year. It is unlikely that you will be able to play in all of them, so let's count for a person who plays 260 CC freerolls a year on PS (5 per week).
The chance of winning in one tournament is 1/250 = 0.004 (or 0.4%), then the chance of not taking the first place is 0.996. The probability that you will never take first place in a year P = (0.996) ^ 260
This means that the probability that at least once a year you will take first place can be roughly estimated as:
P = 1 - (0.996) ^ 260 = 0.65 or 65%
In general, you can roughly estimate the probability using the formulas...
For example, let's assume that the skill of all participants is approximately the same, and that 250 people are always involved (for PS). There are 6 freerolls per week, which means about 300 freerolls per year. It is unlikely that you will be able to play in all of them, so let's count for a person who plays 260 CC freerolls a year on PS (5 per week).
The chance of winning in one tournament is 1/250 = 0.004 (or 0.4%), then the chance of not taking the first place is 0.996. The probability that you will never take first place in a year P = (0.996) ^ 260
This means that the probability that at least once a year you will take first place can be roughly estimated as:
P = 1 - (0.996) ^ 260 = 0.65 or 65%
By the way, i remembered that the first time i took first place on the PS was exactly one day before that tournament with disconnect )) Otherwise, it is very likely that i would have been taken first places 2 days in a row. That would be funny, considering that the probability of 2 wins in a row is extremely small...
P.S. According to the same formula, the probability of winning the first place in a PS freeroll at least once per month (this is about 20 freerolls):
P = 1 - (0.996) ^ 20 = 0.08 or 8%
P.S. According to the same formula, the probability of winning the first place in a PS freeroll at least once per month (this is about 20 freerolls):
P = 1 - (0.996) ^ 20 = 0.08 or 8%
You can apply rough, but more advanced calculations...
We will assume that all participants have approximately equal probability of getting to the 3 pre-final tables: P1 = 27/250.
At these pre-final tables, the level of play of opponents will always be much higher. So, depending on what kind of player you think you are (mediocre, average or good), the probability of taking the first place will be different. Let's say for a mediocre P2 = 1/90, for an average P2 = 1/27, for a good P2 = 1/15.
P3 = (1-P1) + P1*(1-P2) = from 0.9928 to 0.9988
Then the probabilities to take first place at least once a year or at least once a month will be as follows:
P (year) = 1- (P3)^260 = from 27% (for a mediocre player) to 85% (for a good player).
P (month) = 1- (P3)^20 = from 2.4% (for a mediocre player) to 13.5% (for a good player).
We will assume that all participants have approximately equal probability of getting to the 3 pre-final tables: P1 = 27/250.
At these pre-final tables, the level of play of opponents will always be much higher. So, depending on what kind of player you think you are (mediocre, average or good), the probability of taking the first place will be different. Let's say for a mediocre P2 = 1/90, for an average P2 = 1/27, for a good P2 = 1/15.
P3 = (1-P1) + P1*(1-P2) = from 0.9928 to 0.9988
Then the probabilities to take first place at least once a year or at least once a month will be as follows:
P (year) = 1- (P3)^260 = from 27% (for a mediocre player) to 85% (for a good player).
P (month) = 1- (P3)^20 = from 2.4% (for a mediocre player) to 13.5% (for a good player).
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I also decided to make a rough calculation of the probability of getting into the TOP4 at least once a month. The first 4 winners receive about 55% of the prize pool. If will be deal (equal), then each of them will receive almost as if he took the 2nd place.
The formulas will be the same as from the last post, but the probability of P2 will be 4 times higher.
Then, the probability of getting into TOP4 at least once a month with participation in 20 CC freerolls on PS with 250 participants will be:
9% for a mediocre player.
28% for the average player.
44% for a good player.
The formulas will be the same as from the last post, but the probability of P2 will be 4 times higher.
Then, the probability of getting into TOP4 at least once a month with participation in 20 CC freerolls on PS with 250 participants will be:
9% for a mediocre player.
28% for the average player.
44% for a good player.
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