lolpeura said:
I would not call it false, but its pretty interesting to read 🤔. I still personally wont vouch for it, but seems like stats do.
Not sure if you intended that video to start at 18 mins, but nothing there shows any advantage nor any stats. All that he shows is how to play icm right from the get go, which is itself a disadvantage. Sure, if we are better at icm than most, but if we are then we are probably just better at POKER than most so we should sit down on time with a full stack and go fishing!! I mean icm is always kinda seat-of-the-pants no matter how good we are at it? Why would we want to throw away our safety net and start short? It's stupid. The early stages are the best time to play nice tight and aggressive poker with safe deep stacks to survive variance. As soon as we go icm, variance = fatal wounds!
The opening lines are total bulls**t. By regging late your stack is NOT worth more than you paid for it. It's worth the same as anybody else's regardless of when it was bought-in. This video even admits that.
His graph at 2:55 is WRONG because it does not take into account stacks. It assumes all entries are equal skill but it makes no assumption about stacks, and the late reg stack is guaranteed to be much shorter than the leaders. This is a fatal error in the calculation. Notice that his graph seems to show that we have a better chance of winning with a shorter stack than with an equal stack! Not hard to see how ridiculous that assumption is. Don't be fooled.
Put it this way. We have Negreanu, Ivey and Kenney. All arguably equal skill. They all have equal stacks. What are the chances that Negreanu wins? About 33%. But now let's give Negreanu half the stack of the other 2. What are his chances of winning now? About 20%? So now how much do you believe that sitting down with a short stack in late reg will improve your chances of winning given equal skill? The answer is none. It will actually DECREASE your chances of a high cash.
At 2 minutes he claims that your chances of cashing higher increases by regging late since many have already busted out is also pure BULL. The players with the best chance to cash highly are the ones with the bigger stacks when reg closes. If you join late you will have one of the SMALLER stacks when reg closes. If you join late, you decrease your chances of finishing near the bottom but you also decrease your chances of finishing near the top. All that you increase is your chance of finishing in the MIDDLE, and what does the middle pay? The same as the bottom: NOTHING! SWEET F A!
The tournament starts with 100bb. If you register just before level 3, you play 1 orbit with 50bb and then soon you are at 33bb. Guaranteed that there are a couple of stacks at your table that have 100-150bb or more because they sat down on time and won some big pots, either by exploiting fish or by being a buttlucky fish themselves. Do you want to go up against them with only 33bb? You better hope that none of them are sitting on your left. Good luck with that.
Then we have the complete fools who think that if you sit down on time the purse is say 150 buy-ins but if you sit down late it's say 250 buy-ins so you're sitting down for a bigger purse. News flash: the folks on your left and right who sat down on time are playing for the same 250 buy-ins, ya schmuck!! Like they didn't think that the purse would grow before reg closed. At least the guy in this video is smart enough not to make that bogus claim.
All of these online 'gurus' who think they are outsmarting population by doing something simple like late registration. It's stupid. Ask Negreanu. "Be in your seat on time. Use your skill edge. Make more money." Don't overthink it.
