To pull numbers out of thin air that I think would be close to accurate, I'll say 75% skill and 25% luck.
I think it's fair to say every deep run in a tournament I've ever had involved an element of luck. I sucked out where I needed too, and hit big hands in situations where my opponents had a good chunk of the board as well.
But you need to have skills in place to make good decisions the majority of the time. When you're making good decisions as a standard, the times you get lucky boost you that little bit further that we all need.
I think it's fair to say every deep run in a tournament I've ever had involved an element of luck. I sucked out where I needed too, and hit big hands in situations where my opponents had a good chunk of the board as well.
But you need to have skills in place to make good decisions the majority of the time. When you're making good decisions as a standard, the times you get lucky boost you that little bit further that we all need.
Well you will get lucky on a hand every 100-200 plays maybe, a lot of people think it's luck to win a hand that is 60-40 ~ 70-30 when in fact it's when you hit those 1-2 outs to win. So, as experts always say, it's a game of skill that even when luck strikes you need to know how to use it to extract the most value from every situation.
Just a reminder that we sometimes get lucky when we don’t win.
So many think are considered when you start a hand…the first is to play the hand or not. Depending on stack, cards, position and pre-flop action we decide to play or fold. Consider all those factors and our range…there are times we might call a raise with a certain hand and times we’ll fold it. Maybe we just got food delivered and we can’t focus right now so we fold it…we’re just not felling it so we fold it. Then you see the flop and think dam that’s my 2 pair…and as you watch the turn and river your playing out in your head what you would do…by the end…your think…man I wish I played that because I would have busted them…only to see them flip a pocket pair that turned into a set…or you would have had and Ace high flush crushed by a straight flush. Then you think…wow luckily I folded that!
So many think are considered when you start a hand…the first is to play the hand or not. Depending on stack, cards, position and pre-flop action we decide to play or fold. Consider all those factors and our range…there are times we might call a raise with a certain hand and times we’ll fold it. Maybe we just got food delivered and we can’t focus right now so we fold it…we’re just not felling it so we fold it. Then you see the flop and think dam that’s my 2 pair…and as you watch the turn and river your playing out in your head what you would do…by the end…your think…man I wish I played that because I would have busted them…only to see them flip a pocket pair that turned into a set…or you would have had and Ace high flush crushed by a straight flush. Then you think…wow luckily I folded that!
puzzlefish
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Average for a decent poker player to get in the money is about 14-20%. That is just to cash, not to win. How often does a good poker player win? 1-3% maybe? That should be all you need to know about luck versus skill. It's almost all luck, but without skill the winning percentage will be close to zero!
It's elementary statistics. There's no need to dress this up as anything else.
It's elementary statistics. There's no need to dress this up as anything else.
Luck is either there or not - it all depends on the point of view. For example, many players are deeply convinced that tournament poker is a lottery where everything depends on luck. Undoubtedly, it will not be possible to win a major tournament for several hundred or thousands of people without good luck.
Gakcards said:
I would say 70x30 for skill.
Often times you can dominate your opponent, but if you are on a bad day, the 3 outs will appear on the river and you will lose the tournament.
So that 30% luck factor is needed to complement the skill.
After spin and go I reconsidered my views on poker and realized that luck takes about 95%
I have calculated this and poker is 1/3 bad luck, 1/3 good luck and 1/3 skill.
In a single heads up hand there are 9 cards (our 2, their 2 and the 5 on the board): these are the luck elements of a hand that we have no control over.
In the same hand there are at least 4 skill elements, we make at least one decision on every street. This decision is skill. When there are raises, then we may have two decisions on a particular street or even 3. Generally we have no more than 6 decisions in a single hand. When there are more players in a hand, there are more luck elements (>2 more unknown cards) but not necessarily more decisions, because there are still only 4 streets of betting.
So, if we have 15 total elements in a hand, of which 9 are luck and 6 are skill, then luck represents 60% of the hand. 1/2 of the luck is good and 1/2 of it is bad. So, mathematically, it is 40% skill, 30% good luck and 30% bad luck.
We own the decisions, so make good ones.
Good luck and God bless.
In a single heads up hand there are 9 cards (our 2, their 2 and the 5 on the board): these are the luck elements of a hand that we have no control over.
In the same hand there are at least 4 skill elements, we make at least one decision on every street. This decision is skill. When there are raises, then we may have two decisions on a particular street or even 3. Generally we have no more than 6 decisions in a single hand. When there are more players in a hand, there are more luck elements (>2 more unknown cards) but not necessarily more decisions, because there are still only 4 streets of betting.
So, if we have 15 total elements in a hand, of which 9 are luck and 6 are skill, then luck represents 60% of the hand. 1/2 of the luck is good and 1/2 of it is bad. So, mathematically, it is 40% skill, 30% good luck and 30% bad luck.
We own the decisions, so make good ones.
Good luck and God bless.
Gakcards said:
1 single tournament = Mostly Luck
As you approach infinity games played, skill becomes more and more of a factor.
Skill affects long term results. If you consistently play "correctly" and forget about trying to win a specific tournament/how the cards run out, the results will pour in. 😉
It can Vary
In my experience Luck will vary from game to game
If you are an experienced player, your skill level is going to be pretty consistent from game to game
but I've had games when I barely missed any hands and racked up the chips
even when I played a crappy hand
at other times the bad beats are coming left and right, and I can't hit my hand
even with trip aces or a full house
Luck, she be a fickle Lady!
TC
In my experience Luck will vary from game to game
If you are an experienced player, your skill level is going to be pretty consistent from game to game
but I've had games when I barely missed any hands and racked up the chips
even when I played a crappy hand
at other times the bad beats are coming left and right, and I can't hit my hand
even with trip aces or a full house
Luck, she be a fickle Lady!
TC
Well I think it's a 50/50 thing but you don't need luck to win hell you don't even have to look at your cards it's all in the bedding and what comes up on the board and playing the players yeah it's all skill but it's 50% luck 50% skill I would saymanzanillo53 said:
You can almost never win a tournament without some level of luck. Whether it's winning a tossup all-in spot where your tournament life or much of your chip stack is at risk or drawing a luck card on turn or river, it's nearly impossible to run pure the whole way from start to finish. With that being said, I'd say 70% skill, 30% luck to win a tournament.
Hi
Of course, everything that is hyper poker or spin&go like it depends a lot on luck, unlike turbo and slow in which you cannot achieve a good result without relying on strategies and skills
Zapahlohotrona said:
Of course, everything that is hyper poker or spin&go like it depends a lot on luck, unlike turbo and slow in which you cannot achieve a good result without relying on strategies and skills
Gakcards said:
Distance poker is a game of skill That's why we don't play poker just for a few hands or a few sessions. Instead, we have to play tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands or even millions of hands in our career. Ultimately, at a distance, all mathematics, statistics and odds are summed up in our favor. Provided, of course, that in most cases you had a mathematical edge over your opponents and made +EV decisions.
If you play better than your opponents, you will win in the end However, at times, the insane short-term variance that takes place in poker can drive even the most skilled and experienced players crazy. Losses with the best hands will happen regularly in this game. And if you play many hands, this can happen several times in a row. It's the same as if you tossed a coin 1000 times. I'm sure for this 1000 times there would be a segment of throws when the heads would fall out 5 times in a row. And when you're not lucky in poker for a long enough period of time, it can seriously undermine your self-confidence, and you start to doubt whether you are really a winning player, even after the past few successful years?
skills 60/70% and luck 30/40% skill is not everything and neither is luck, luck has a great influence and although many people do not believe that it is so, there are different opinions and it is valid and respects the opinion of each