hey, i'm 9k. #3

[Matt Vaughan]

If he GII with AA on the flop then we have to GII on the flop since there are more combos of AA than KK...

 

[WVHillbilly]

How are we ahead of KK+ on the turn??

Was verrry curious to this as well. Unless he meant villain has Kx and therefore his best hand is KK with one being on the board?

I said KK+/AK. Against that range we have 55% equity on the turn.

The sick part (and the reason I dislike lead again) is that if he raises our donk I don't think we can profitably get it in at all. Is he raising AK? Honestly the only good reason I can see to donk is so we can fold to a raise since he's only raising KK+ lol

We're still ahead of KK+ on the flop, so even if he folds AK to a flop 3bet we have 60% euity if we gii on the flop (Ace doesn't hit until the turn).

 

[hackmeplz]

do you think he's raising the flop donk with AA? Meant to say KK not KK+. It just comes down to whether he raises 66 pre I guess and I think the answer most of the time is no.

 

[Matt Vaughan]

I said KK+/AK. Against that range we have 55% equity on the turn.


We're still ahead of KK+ on the flop, so even if he folds AK to a flop 3bet we have 60% euity if we gii on the flop (Ace doesn't hit until the turn).

I saw the AK, I just mis-read it as "we're ahead of the following hands" rather than "we're ahead of this range."

And yeah def agree on GII on flop.

 

[OMGITSOVER9K]

gonna have to move down again, sigh.

someone feel sorry for me

 

[Matt Vaughan]

Done.

 

[Cafeman]

 

[Blobweird123]

I saw the AK, I just mis-read it as "we're ahead of the following hands" rather than "we're ahead of this range."

Yeah I made the same misunderstanding...

 

[OMGITSOVER9K]

PokerStars - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: $50.25
Hero (BB): $80.00
CO: $19.25
BTN: $50.00

SB posts SB $0.25, Hero posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has A:heart: T:spade:

fold, BTN raises to $1.50, fold, Hero calls $1.00

Flop: ($3.25, 2 players) Q:club: Q:diamond: A:diamond:
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.00, Hero calls $2.00

Turn: ($7.25, 2 players) Q:spade:
Hero checks, BTN bets $6.00, Hero calls $6.00

River: ($19.25, 2 players) 4:spade:
Hero checks, BTN bets $15.50

?

 

[dj11]

Shove , get the rest of his stack, he is committed. Only 1 combo and another single out kill you.

 

[WVHillbilly]

I just call and expect to split most of the time. Shoving gets called by splits and folds worse. Don't add to the rake you're paying.

 

[dj11]

I just call and expect to split most of the time. Shoving gets called by splits and folds worse. Don't add to the rake you're paying.

Funny you bring up rake. I find rake considerations only work if you know the villains, and know they are rake aware. In this hand 9k gave us no villain info.

All pp's and any Ax will make the move villain made, along with the 2 killer hands he might have. If villain has somehow convinced himself we do not have those killer hands (AA, Qx) or even Ax, he will make that play. I would think his bluff % would decrease on the river tho.

All things considered, I think we would be like 5% to outright lose this hand, 35% to split, and the rest to win it. But those are only guesstimates, and I still think I force villain, to get his stack in.

 

[Matt Vaughan]

Funny you bring up rake. I find rake considerations only work if you know the villains, and know they are rake aware. In this hand 9k gave us no villain info.

All pp's and any Ax will make the move villain made, along with the 2 killer hands he might have. If villain has somehow convinced himself we do not have those killer hands (AA, Qx) or even Ax, he will make that play. I would think his bluff % would decrease on the river tho.

All things considered, I think we would be like 5% to outright lose this hand, 35% to split, and the rest to win it. But those are only guesstimates, and I still think I force villain, to get his stack in.

But if he folds the whole % of his range that we beat, then shoving is -EV...

 

[dj11]

But if he folds the whole % of his range that we beat, then shoving is -EV...

How can that be? If we call, and win, we make X, if we shove and he folds we make that exact same X. If my guesstimate is reasonable, and we outright win 65% of the time, then whether he calls the shove or folds it was an +EV shove, except for the rake.

I think +/- EV does not really apply in this situation. It can be calculated, but isn't of a whole lot of use here, we have a legit hand against very few out for villain, and when we add in the fact that this hand was 4 handed from the gitgo, well I for one will always assume our boat is good here...

____________

A separate question about rake;

If pot is say $100 and I make a $100 bet and buy the pot, the rake is calculated on the $100 uncalled pot, right?

 

[Matt Vaughan]

How can that be? If we call, and win, we make X, if we shove and he folds we make that exact same X. If my guesstimate is reasonable, and we outright win 65% of the time, then whether he calls the shove or folds it was an +EV shove, except for the rake.

I think +/- EV does not really apply in this situation. It can be calculated, but isn't of a whole lot of use here, we have a legit hand against very few out for villain, and when we add in the fact that this hand was 4 handed from the gitgo, well I for one will always assume our boat is good here...

____________

A separate question about rake;

If pot is say $100 and I make a $100 bet and buy the pot, the rake is calculated on the $100 uncalled pot, right?

Not sure how you can say that EV doesn't apply here. It always applies because going for the highest expected value (average payoff) is always the best thing to do unless for some reason you are feeling charitable.

And you can't ALWAYS assume we're good.

But, if he ALWAYS has a worse hand or has us tied, but will fold all his worse hands to a bet, then shoving is the same EV as checking, if you don't count rake. If you count rake, shoving will be worse, as WV said. If he can sometimes have us beat and will never call with a worse hand when we shove, then a shove clearly cannot be more profitable than checking behind. If that doesn't make sense I can do the math itt?

And yah uncalled bets don't go into the pot.

 

[OMGITSOVER9K]

fight fight fight

 

[OMGITSOVER9K]

also graph for the month, kinda stopped the losing.. red line needs work so I can B/E!

 

[RamdeeBen]

whichi limit is that 9k?

 

[OMGITSOVER9K]

fiddy and a bit of 25.

 

[DunningKruger]

Raising there on the river is quite bad.

IMO of course.

9K I'm sorry to see that it isn't working out right now. Move down and regroup and give it another shot when you feel you're ready again.

 

[JOEBOB69]

meh i would donk~12.5 on the river.
Villain doesn't have many 3 barreling bluffs in his range here,but he might have a bluff catcher.
Now, do you ever b/f ummm doubt it

 

[acky100]

Raising there on the river is quite bad.

IMO of course.

9K I'm sorry to see that it isn't working out right now. Move down and regroup and give it another shot when you feel you're ready again.

Agreed.

but what does EV even matter like dj says

 

[OMGITSOVER9K]

yeah I left it on by accident, removing EV lines when I look at profits from now on because it doesn't matter.

i'll post some hands tomorrow when I can be bothered opening up PT4 again.

 

[Blobweird123]

Shove , get the rest of his stack, he is committed. Only 1 combo and another single out kill you.

Yeah I can see a possible fish call from KK. But ultimately I would just call.

 

[hackmeplz]

When I first saw it I thought shove could be cool as a bluff to fold out chops, but ultimately I think it's way too fps and people just sigh-call Ax way too much for it to be profitable and he can have plenty of Qx in his button raising range that he plays exactly like this. If you shove you're definitely bluffing though.