NFL Insider Jason La Canfora speaks to execs and focuses on 2027 awards season
Key highlights
- On Joe Burrow for MVP: “Burrow has never won the award, and if, as one GM put it to me – the Bengals are “the team to beat” in the AFC, this may be his best and most-complete season yet.”
- On Patrick Mahomes’ for Comeback Player of the Year: “Mahomes won’t be 100 percent until 2027, but everyone I’ve talked to expects a bounce back year for KC. “They aren’t going to be down for long,” as another GM put it.”
- On Makai Lemon for Offensive Rookie of the Year: “Lemon has a chance to be a key cog from the get-go for a very high-profile team, and help get a former Super Bowl offense back to a more proficient level. “They’re going to scheme up ways to get the ball in his hands,” as the personnel exec put it.”
*Patrick Mahomes at the Oval Office in 2023; the Chiefs quarterback could bounce back following a nasty injury last season and win Comeback Player of the Year. Credit: Wikimedia Commons.
Hope springs eternal in the NFL this time of year.
Teams are getting their first look at their draft classes and everyone looks great in shorts and shells, long before we put the pads on. Or, well, in pajamas as Lions hardnosed head coach Dan Campbell put it a few weeks ago.
It’s also a time when NFL executives begin to really take stock of their opposition and size up depth charts and look at schedules to get a feel for what is ahead in 2026. There are certain teams and players who seem to be primed for big things this fall, and while a consensus might not matter much in June, there was some agreement among personnel execs I’ve long known and trusted about specific players being put in position to earn significant accolades.
Given what I’ve heard, repeatedly, about some of these scenarios it makes sense to evaluate how the sportsbooks have priced these propositions. There are some Vegas longshots that savvy NFL people see as being primed for success:
MVP – Joe Burrow
The Bengals QB is gushing about the way this roster was put together in a way we’ve never heard before. He wears his emotions on his sleeve and it tends to bleed into the season. Maybe it has something to do with all of the Bengals’ terrible Septembers.
Burrow is the NFL’s highest rated passer from Nov-Jan in the regular season during his time in the NFL, and this is an award where the human element matters. A few years back Josh Allen won it over Lamar Jackson, despite having a far less impactful season, because they felt it was his turn. Well, Burrow has never won the award, and if, as one GM put it to me – the Bengals are “the team to beat” in the AFC, this may be his best and most-complete season yet.
Defensive Player Of Year – Kyle Hamilton
The Ravens safety is truly a special weapon, Baltimore’s defense should be primed to bounce back from poor seasons under former coordinator Zach Orr. New head coach Jesse Minter had tremendous success with massive hybrid safety Derwin James, and the last time Hamilton was in such hands (2023 with now Seattle Super Bowl winning coach Mike Macdonald as his coordinator), he flirted with this award.
Minter will use him primarily as a hybrid defender near the line of scrimmage, putting him in place to impact the ball on the ground and in flight. With the signing of edge Trey Hendrickson and elite defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike possibly back from a neck injury, the Ravens should be able to heat up QBs more which should help Hamilton make more plays. “They haven’t had a pass rush like this in a long time,” said one personnel exec. “Minter will make Hamilton the star of that defense.” Oh, and he’s going to see his blitz rate soar, too. The Ravens also only really face five elite QBs.
Comeback Player Of Year – Patrick Mahomes
Sometimes you don’t need to overthink these things. When Mahomes posted a video of himself driving a golf ball, wearing just a light sleeve over his surgically repaired knee, that was something of a shot across the bow to NFL defenses about his intent. He wanted the world to know how far ahead of schedule he is. And he’s backing it up on the practice fields during Organized Team Activities. Mahomes is as driven as Tom Brady and he is the only person with a shot of getting near Brady’s postseason resume.
He’s simply as driven as anyone in the game despite all he has accomplished and for the first time since his rise to prominence he is facing real adversity after the Chiefs missed the playoffs and his season was cut short by the major knee injury. Mahomes won’t be 100 percent until 2027, but everyone I’ve talked to expects a bounce back year for KC. “They aren’t going to be down for long,” as another GM put it.
Offensive Rookie Of Year – Makai Lemon
The Eagles traded star receiver AJ Brown in large part because he wanted out, but they made sure to move up and grab this dynamic offensive weapon in the first round of the draft first. He can explode with yards after catch and turn the kind of passes QB Jalen Hurts likes throwing the most into home runs. It’s a high-profile team with quality pieces around him, which not all rookie receivers will benefit from.
This tends to be a QB award, but no one believes first-overall pick Fernando Mendoza is going to start Week 1 for Las Vegas (“They brought in (veteran QB Kirk) Cousins for that,” the first GM said). Most of the players with the lowest odds for this award play on rebuilding teams that won’t be in prime time or contend for anything.
Lemon has a chance to be a key cog from the get-go for a very high-profile team, and help get a former Super Bowl offense back to a more proficient level. That’s a lot of narratives potentially working in his favor, and “they’re going to scheme up ways to get the ball in his hands,” as the personnel exec put it.
Coach Of The Year – Ben Johnson
There were some skeptics a year ago about whether the supposed wunderkind coach could make an immediate impact … And man did he. His work with Caleb Williams put a lot of nonsense to bed about that QB’s ability and leadership and we suspect he takes another leap this season. The Bears also should have a better offensive line, and more bite on defense.
Johnson commands a room, has won this group over and the staff is largely back; they lost non-playcalling offensive assistant Declan Doyle to the Ravens but that’s not going to hold Johnson back. This is his baby and the Bears have a chance to be the top seed in the NFC. What they did in crunch time wasn’t just dumb luck.
And if he has Williams playing to the level expected – “Caleb will be an MVP candidate,” the personnel exec said – that’s going to further boost Johnson’s spot.