Prediction markets let you buy and sell contracts on real-world markets, such as pop culture. While they may seem similar to sports betting or other forms of gambling, they function more like financial exchanges because you buy contracts, and prices move based on public perception. Find out all the must-know details about prediction markets: how to get started, whether they’re safe, and which sites are the best.
Here’s a quick look at the top four prediction market sites, including the pros and cons of each one.
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FanDuel is one of the most recognizable brands in real-money betting. Now, the company is dipping its toe into the waters of prediction markets. FanDuel Predicts is a standalone app available in Alabama, Alaska, North Dakota, South Carolina, and South Dakota. Other states are “coming soon,” per the website.
FanDuel Predicts has the classic FanDuel branding and color scheme, along with plenty of markets to trade. It copies the tried-and-true FanDuel user interface (one of the industry’s best) into this burgeoning arena.
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Pros
A more familiar and trustworthy brand than Polymarket
Provides the top-tier user experience FanDuel is known for
Slow but steady expansion as regulations allow
Cons
Only available in AL, AK, ND, SC, and SD
Separate app from the core FanDuel platforms
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Not to be outdone by its fiercest rival, DraftKings also entered the predictions space with its own standalone app: DraftKings Predictions. Like the other sites we’ve tested, DraftKings has a wide array of available markets: culture, elections, finance, and (in some regions) sports.
While it’s widely available in most states, DraftKings has state-specific restrictions on which prediction markets are allowed. Many states allow all markets, while others only allow financial markets, and yet others restrict any sports-related predictions.
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Pros
$1 million post-launch giveaway available
Strong user interface, like the DK sportsbook or casino sites
Available in a few dozen states (with restrictions)
Cons
Separate from the core DraftKings app
Markets are limited, especially in states with legal restrictions
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Yet another sportsbook and casino company has entered the prediction markets fray: Fanatics. The company’s Fanatics Markets app launched in December 2025. The company acquired Paragon Global Markets and inked a partnership with Crypto.com to bring the app to life.
Fanatics Markets has the brand's trademark look and feel and is available in more than 20 states. Markets include politics, sports, and many other categories.
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Pros
$25 trade match for new users
Available in more than 20 states
Trade on sports, politics, pop culture, and more
Cons
No desktop trading platform; Fanatics is mobile only
Separate app from the core Fanatics ecosystem
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Polymarket is renowned for its high-volume prediction markets and fast-moving prices, making it a haven for high-action predictors. It’s chock-full of categories to bet on, from crypto to culture to elections and even mentions of certain terms on podcasts.
This is all fine and dandy, but Polymarket is currently unavailable in the US thanks to previous Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) action. However, Polymarket is taking steps to become compliant for the US market once more. It currently has a waitlist, allowing select members to sign up.
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Pros
Lots of market movement provide opportunities to earn
Huge array of prediction markets across dozens of categories
Helpful “How it works” primer for complete beginners
Cons
Waitlist only in the US right now
Quick-moving markets may be overwhelming for beginners
Prediction markets are platforms where people trade on the outcome of real-world events. Instead of placing a fixed-odds bet with odds set by the house, you’re buying and selling contracts whose prices reflect what the market (including other predictors) thinks will happen. As news breaks and opinions shift, prices update to incorporate that information.
Most prediction markets simplify outcomes to “Yes” or “No,” making them approachable for beginners. The price you pay represents the market’s current implied probability of that outcome.
Other markets may have multiple possible outcomes (for example, who will be TIME magazine’s person of the year). In these cases, you can pick from a list of contenders, each with its own probability of winning.
Here are the quickfire need-to-know details about how prediction markets work. As they are new to the US market, it’s vital to understand the differences between online casino play and prediction markets.
Here’s an example of a simple prediction market from Polymarket. Note that this reflects the market’s status at the time of writing, and should be used for example purposes only.
Market: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Those prices are per share, and you can buy multiple shares. If your outcome is correct, each winning share pays out $1. You can also sell your shares before the market settles. This may be worth considering if the price has moved in your favour and you want to lock in a profit, or if you want to reduce a potential loss.
Cole Rush
Sweepstakes Casino Expert
12+ articles written for Casino.us
If you’re new to prediction markets, I suggest starting small and simple. Stick to Yes or No markets and only buy a few dollars' worth of contracts at a time. This will help you get the feel for how it all works.
Signing up for a prediction market site usually takes just a few minutes. Note that the steps may change slightly between sites, but the overall process will feel similar at any prediction platform.
Prediction markets occupy a unique regulatory space and are governed more like financial sites. That’s why you’ll see language like “trade” and “contracts” instead of more gambling-coded words.
So, while prediction markets aren’t regulated in the same way as US online casinos or sportsbooks, they are still subject to strict regulation at the federal and state levels. Most reputable prediction market sites will have authorization from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
That said, prediction markets are currently under a lot of legal scrutiny. Some states have banned them completely, and legality varies by jurisdiction.
| State | Status | Restrictions |
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| Arizona | 🛑 | Revoked Underdog’s fantasy license and issued cease-and-desist orders against prediction platforms. |
| Arkansas | 🛑 | State Attorney General's opinion indicated sports event contracts offered without a sports betting license constitute illegal gambling. |
| Connecticut | 🟠 | Department of Consumer Protection issued cease-and-desist orders against platforms offering unlicensed online gambling/event contracts. |
| Illinois | 🛑 | The Illinois Gaming Board issued cease-and-desist letters to Kalshi/Crypto.com/Robinhood dated April 1, 2025. |
| Louisiana | 🛑 | Louisiana Gaming Control Board warned that sports event contracts are treated as sports wagering and could impact licensure/suitability. |
| Maryland | 🛑 | Maryland issued enforcement actions/cease-and-desist materials related to sports event contracts, ongoing disputes, and warnings to licensees. |
| Massachusetts | 🛑 | Massachusetts regulators warned about sports prediction markets; the state is part of broader legal/regulatory scrutiny of event contracts. |
| Michigan | 🛑 | The Michigan Gaming Control Board warned licensees about their involvement in sporting event contracts and the potential licensure risks. |
| Montana | 🟠 | Reported as among states issuing orders/actions against Kalshi-style sports contracts. |
| Nevada | 🛑 | A federal judge ruled Kalshi subject to Nevada gaming rules in dispute over sports-style markets; the injunction was lifted. |
| New Jersey | 🟠 | The NJ Division of Gaming Enforcement issued a cease-and-desist order (March 27, 2025, publicly listed), and related litigation followed. |
| Ohio | 🛑 | Ohio actions include cease-and-desist posture and litigation around event contracts; the state has warned against sports contracts. |
Cole Rush
Sweepstakes Casino Expert
12+ articles written for Casino.us
Prediction markets remain very new, and regulations are constantly changing. Ensure you stick to the safe sites we recommend and follow responsible gambling practices so you remain within your limits and don’t overcommit your bankroll.
Prediction markets and traditional real-money casinos can feel similar, but the mechanics and pricing of the former behave more like a financial exchange. Here are the key differences and similarities.
| Prediction Markets | Traditional Gambling |
|---|---|
| You trade contracts, and their prices move based on news and demand. | You bet on fixed odds set by a sportsbook or casino. |
| You can try to sell your contracts for an early payout if demand allows. | Bets settle after the event, with limited early cashout opportunities. |
| Implied probability is clearly baked into the contract price. | The sportsbook sets the odds and includes a take (vig). |
| Regulation is hotly contested; legal battles continue. | Clearly regulated in specific states and outright prohibited in others. |
After years of being unavailable in the US, Polymarket is slowly returning to the US. The platform received a green light following its acquisition of a CFTC-licensed exchange. The site now has a live waitlist and is rolling it out to select customers.
Louisiana’s regulator warned that sports event contracts are treated as sports wagering under state law, and it cautioned that involvement (even indirect) could affect licensure. The warning reflects a growing bloc of states trying to regulate these products like sports betting.
Connecticut’s Department of Consumer Protection ordered multiple prediction platforms to stop unlicensed online gambling operations in the state. The state framed sports event contracts as illegal gambling and emphasized consumer protection risks, including underage exposure and a lack of licensed safeguards.
A federal judge ruled Kalshi is subject to Nevada gaming regulations, lifting a prior injunction and rejecting the argument that federal commodities law blocks state oversight here. Kalshi appealed, but the decision adds momentum to state-level enforcement efforts.
Our expert reviewers spend multiple hours with prediction sites and consider a wide array of factors when reviewing them. Here are the top elements we evaluate (though we consider others as well).
Prediction markets are exchanges that allow you to trade on projected outcomes in various areas: weather, politics, pop culture, and more.
This depends on your state, as certain markets have specific sites available. Polymarket is one of the best, but there are many others.
Yes. Most prediction market platforms are available via a dedicated app. You can find these in the iOS App Store or Google Play.
Prediction markets are legal in some places and prohibited in others. You should always check whether a specific platform is allowed in your state before signing up.
Yes, some prediction sites offer welcome bonuses to new players. You may also find occasional promotions for existing players, too.
Start with markets you are already interested in. If you follow politics, for example, try related markets. There are plenty of categories: finance, weather, cryptocurrency, pop culture, and more.
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