His PFR is 8% and his VPIP is 12%. Being a nit, most of his gap comes from flatting, not limping, so let's just say he flats 4% of hands preflop.
We haven't been given a ton of stats here, but I would say he probably 3bets JJ+, AK, maybe AQ. He might flat TT but not sure. I think he flats KQs, and sometimes KQo. Obv this isn't an exact science, but I'll say he flats KQo 50% and folds it 50%.
That still leaves enough for him to be flatting TT- all the way down to 22, and still be close to 4% (it's technically 4.8%, but there is already another caller in, so I think he feels good set-mining -> and this is using Flopzilla btw).
So facing our flop bet, I think it's safe to say he flats KQss, flats sets sometimes (we'll say flat 50%, raise 50%), flats all overpairs, and folds everything else.
So after he flats the flop I think his range is 22,44,55 (weighted just 50% though), 66-TT, KQss (<-- this is just one combo).
After the turn comes I think he folds all his 2nd pairs (66-TT), calls again with KQss (let's just say for the sake of argument he doesn't raise it), and flats all his sets (if he didn't raise flop, don't think he raises turn, especially if he hopes to get the other villain to call). So he's got 22,44,55 (weighted 50%), and KQss (still just 1 combo).
On the river we are deciding what to do. There are 9 combos of sets, but we weighed them at 50%, so 4.5 combos. 1 combo of KQ. We beat all sets and lose to KQ. winning 4.5/5.5 seems pretty good to me, since I don't think he folds any of it on the river that he continued with through the turn.
Edit: Btw, if you are skeptical of the "raise 50%, flat 50%" for sets on the flop, he can flat them less than 10% of the time and we will still be able to make a profitable river bet assuming he never folds sets on the river.
