Polished Poker Vol. I Study Group

Rational Madman said:

What is the yellow meaning?

Click to expand...

Yellow is all-in adjusted. It says how much money the odds say someone should win playing those same all-in situations over a long period of time.

Yeah so your red line is a bit high and showdown too low, this indicates you are being a touch too aggro probably 3betting a fair amount and at least double barrelling most hands. You can get away with this in zoom as the player pool won't know what you are doing for quite a while.
The problem with doing this is that you will fold out most of your opponents mediocre holdings by the end of the turn. Once you get to the river all they have left is the top of their ranges. This is why bluffing on the end doesn't work very often as to get to the river against heavy betting they have to be strong.
Now once the Borg start to catch on you are just an aggro they will adapt, you will find they will 4bet you more, check raise your cbet more and call you down lighter. These are natural adjustments to make against looser players with high cbet rates.

A couple of years ago VinylSpiros and I did an experiment in 5nl zoom where for an hour we 3bet every playable hand and then full potted both flop and turn. The win rate was silly and our chart had a massive redline and a low blue line and looked similar to yours. It makes you realise how easy it is to fold people out with aggression but that it won't work forever.
So you need to start checking some more flops and turns with your 2nd pair type hands. Hands with some showdown value but with little chance of improving. But you know in zoom if you take your foot off their throat they are going to bet into you if you check so you need to call at least once sometimes with 2nd best hands. Its all about finding the balance and targetting your barrelling at looser players and less against the tighter ones. You can barrel nits as they often won't gii without the nuts so I suggest you have a look at their WTSD% early in the hand and don't barrel the tighter players who's WTSD% is over 30

Thanks Bruce! Really helpful in both comments.

Figaroo2 said:

Yeah so your red line is a bit high and showdown too low, this indicates you are being a touch too aggro probably 3betting a fair amount and at least double barrelling most hands. You can get away with this in zoom as the player pool won't know what you are doing for quite a while.
The problem with doing this is that you will fold out most of your opponents mediocre holdings by the end of the turn. Once you get to the river all they have left is the top of their ranges. This is why bluffing on the end doesn't work very often as to get to the river against heavy betting they have to be strong.
Now once the Borg start to catch on you are just an aggro they will adapt, you will find they will 4bet you more, check raise your cbet more and call you down lighter. These are natural adjustments to make against looser players with high cbet rates.

A couple of years ago VinylSpiros and I did an experiment in 5nl zoom where for an hour we 3bet every playable hand and then full potted both flop and turn. The win rate was silly and our chart had a massive redline and a low blue line and looked similar to yours. It makes you realise how easy it is to fold people out with aggression but that it won't work forever.
So you need to start checking some more flops and turns with your 2nd pair type hands. Hands with some showdown value but with little chance of improving. But you know in zoom if you take your foot off their throat they are going to bet into you if you check so you need to call at least once sometimes with 2nd best hands. Its all about finding the balance and targetting your barrelling at looser players and less against the tighter ones. You can barrel nits as they often won't gii without the nuts so I suggest you have a look at their WTSD% early in the hand and don't barrel the tighter players who's WTSD% is over 30

Click to expand...

Yes yes yes. Agree with bolded section 100%. Pot controlling is another tool, if used correctly, people often stab with worse, and we under rep our hand, and can often bet turn for value and they call with worse.

Alucard said:

Click to expand...

When your red line and blue line diverge like that, you're definitely bluffing too much in the wrong spots, and calling down in the wrong spots. It's all fixable, so keep posting hands around this kind of issue, and I'll do my best to provide some tips for how to approach these spots.

I like to keep poker simple, and there is a basic formula in some of these situations you can apply. Nothing is exact of course though.

John A said:

When your red line and blue line diverge like that, you're definitely bluffing too much in the wrong spots, and calling down in the wrong spots. It's all fixable, so keep posting hands around this kind of issue, and I'll do my best to provide some tips for how to approach these spots.

I like to keep poker simple, and there is a basic formula in some of these situations you can apply. Nothing is exact of course though.

Click to expand...

Thanks. As I said this mostly happens in zoom. Here's the 5NL 6max graph so far at 888 normal tables. It looks very ordinary I think.
So I guess there are some adjustments I need to make when playing zoom to make it like this.

Alucard said:

It looks very ordinary I think.

Click to expand...

Actually your AI adjusted shows that your true win rate is 21 dollars, compared to your actual 43. Now given you can’t change Money Won Without Showdown, this difference (22$) is from blue line. Making your true blue line around 7 dollars.

Compared to your earlier 2NL graphs these 5NL graphs do look a bit ‘sick’. I would think it’s result of meeting aggression with even more aggression instead of balanced approach (bet range, check range, fold range, call range). Genearlly speaking imo blue line should be the major component in low limits, but obviously it’s not the only way to play. However if we also look your hand histories and combine it to this graph, I would say agro-fishes you counter on the 5NL have altered your poker reality.

This is obviously over analyzing things from merely 2.5k hands, but maybe it contains some truth.

braveslice said:

However if we also look your hand histories and combine it to this graph, I would say agro-fishes you counter on the 5NL have altered your poker reality.

Click to expand...

Could you explain what you mean here? I don't get it. In what way did it alter it. And what do you mean with poker reality?

Supmargy said:

Could you explain what you mean here? I don't get it. In what way did it alter it. And what do you mean with poker reality?

Click to expand...

Luls they are just fancy words, they don’t actually mean anything. You should know me already.

I just meant that compared to passive player pool at 2NL where any imaginable call play is possible at 5NL you find lots of more aggression. Now this aggression is usually aggression that hardly ever makes sense for logical mind, it’s easy to just generalize and say with top pair that hero has the winning hand and push it to the end. Even though concepts like pot control, trapping aggressive player, not betting too thinly on the river ie passive nuances of poker are starting to be also important. Protective bets are part of the poker, but not in any way close of being on the same importance with value bets. For example our hero has a habit of betting for protection to not give free cards, even though this is correct, no way is this something we should always do. We don't want to find our-self on the river with TPMK with huge pot (or even with TPTK) and then wonder what to do if the plan is not clear already from the flop.

UUh, so I was trying to say that our hero might be fighting solely with aggression with too little passive tools. And reason for this might be over adjusting because how only part of the pool play.

At the end this is meaningless given how good win rate he has, obviously he has just found a good way to make money. But smooth (I would call this balanced, but it’s probably wrong) strategy where every tool in the poker book (also passive tools) are in use that is not.

braveslice said:

Luls they are just fancy words, they don’t actually mean anything. You should know me already.

I just meant that compared to passive player pool at 2NL where any imaginable call play is possible at 5NL you find lots of more aggression. Now this aggression is usually aggression that hardly ever makes sense for logical mind, it’s easy to just generalize and say with top pair that hero has the winning hand and push it to the end. Even though concepts like pot control, trapping aggressive player, not betting too thinly on the river ie passive nuances of poker are starting to be also important. Protective bets are part of the poker, but not in any way close of being on the same importance with value bets. For example our hero has a habit of betting for protection to not give free cards, even though this is correct, no way is this something we should always do.

UUh, so I was trying to say that our hero might be fighting solely with aggression with too little passive tools. And reason for this might be over adjusting because how only part of the pool play.

At the end this is meaningless given how good win rate he has, obviously he has just found a good way to make money. But smooth (I would call this balanced, but it’s probably wrong) strategy where every tool in the poker book (also passive tools) are in use that is not.

Click to expand...

Strategy he uses: wait for strong hand and run like a bull seeing red.

Problem is the one holding the flag is a donkey not a matador.

Rational Madman said:

Strategy he uses: wait for strong hand and run like a bull seeing red.

Problem is the one holding the flag is a donkey not a matador.

Click to expand...

With win rates like that I would call him a butcher, bull on the meat counter might leave matador unemployed.

Rational Madman said:

After he checks the turn he is showing respect to your tightness; never assume he will lose respect on the river.

When the fish respects the shark, if there are no blood in the water then it's time to make them fear on top of respect.

Always always shove that river.

Click to expand...

Cash game grinders are never butchers, they are sadists of the finest order.

It isn't about killing, it's about bleeding them hard enough for them to feed your vampiric lust for profit but slow enough that they feel hope to come back later.

braveslice said:

With win rates like that I would call him a butcher, bull on the meat counter might leave matador unemployed.

Click to expand...

Two hands from today's second session

Betting the turn makes us pretty strong. So is it best to check back & raise or VB the river?


---------------------
I feel I should fold turn. or re raised flop. thoughts?

Another couple of interesting spots


----------------

I didn't want to 4bet here cause of being deep stacked. Wanted to see how things would develop on flop. Was the call on the flop unnecessary?


---------------------------------------



By the way what is the standard cbet percentage when I'm the pre flop aggressor with one villain in the pot?
Mine is around 80 I think.

braveslice said:

Actually your AI adjusted shows that your true win rate is 21 dollars, compared to your actual 43. Now given you can’t change Money Won Without Showdown, this difference (22$) is from blue line. Making your true blue line around 7 dollars.

Compared to your earlier 2NL graphs these 5NL graphs do look a bit ‘sick’. I would think it’s result of meeting aggression with even more aggression instead of balanced approach (bet range, check range, fold range, call range). Genearlly speaking imo blue line should be the major component in low limits, but obviously it’s not the only way to play. However if we also look your hand histories and combine it to this graph, I would say agro-fishes you counter on the 5NL have altered your poker reality.

This is obviously over analyzing things from merely 2.5k hands, but maybe it contains some truth.

Click to expand...

+2... exactly. Even at these stakes, you should start thinking about what kind of check/calling ranges you have, check/raising ranges, etc... this will make you a much better poker player, a better bluffer, and better at picking off bluffs.

Alucard said:

Another couple of interesting spots

Spoiler

partypoker - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 120.2 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 18.75, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 16)
SB: 84 BB (VPIP: 24.32, PFR: 21.62, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 37)
Hero (BB): 312.2 BB
UTG: 136.6 BB (VPIP: 35.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
MP: 114.2 BB (VPIP: 22.73, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 67)
CO: 114.8 BB (VPIP: 20.83, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 4s 4d
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 7 BB, BTN calls 4.8 BB

----------------

I didn't want to 4bet here cause of being deep stacked. Wanted to see how things would develop on flop. Was the call on the flop unnecessary?

Spoiler

partypoker - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
SB: 692.2 BB (VPIP: 25.40, PFR: 21.60, 3Bet Preflop: 15.56, Hands: 131)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
Hero (UTG): 350.2 BB
MP: 263 BB (VPIP: 19.05, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 21)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 17.95, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 10.34, Hands: 82)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Kc Kd
Hero raises to 3 BB, MP raises to 10.4 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 7.4 BB

Flop : (22.2 BB, 2 players) 3c Ad Qs
Hero checks, MP bets 9 BB, Hero calls 9 BB

Turn : (40.2 BB, 2 players) 4h
Hero checks, MP bets 18 BB, fold

MP wins 56.2 BB

---------------------------------------

Spoiler

partypoker - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 104.6 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
SB: 200.8 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 27.14, 3Bet Preflop: 11.54, Hands: 71)
BB: 92.8 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 4)
UTG: 101 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
Hero (MP): 330.8 BB
CO: 112.4 BB (VPIP: 17.72, PFR: 15.19, 3Bet Preflop: 10.34, Hands: 83)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Js Jd
fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop : (7.4 BB, 2 players) Tc Qd Ac
Hero bets 5.2 BB, BTN raises to 22.8 BB, fold

BTN wins 34.6 BB

By the way what is the standard cbet percentage when I'm the pre flop aggressor with one villain in the pot?
Mine is around 80 I think.

Click to expand...

First hand... well played.

Second hand... I think this is fine.

Third hand fine. They all seem pretty standard.

As far as standard c-bet when pre-flop raiser... in single raised pots, 65-80% is ok at your stakes. MW this will drop dramtically.

I haven't written a strategy article in awhile now. Owe you guys one. This one is on floating OOP - making profitable decisions:

http://www.acepokersolutions.com/poker-blog/pokerarticles/truth-floating-position/

Any feedback or questions, just let me know.

Must have been a bad article. lol

just read it. good article. thanks.

When you say the board is really good for the hero, you meant that it suits the BBs range better right?

John A said:

Must have been a bad article. lol

Click to expand...

Gives us a chance! been at work all day!

I take it you saving the turn small overbet tactic for hands with a little less equity than this?
I can see we wouldn't want to get shoved on if we led fairly large into the turn with this exact hand. But where is the cut off between the two tactics?

But of course the other way around the same play could be used by the pre flop aggressor to bluff catch in a spot like this.
Right?

Alucard said:

just read it. good article. thanks.

When you say the board is really good for the hero, you meant that it suits the BBs range better right?

Click to expand...

It doesn't really suit anyone's range, which is good if you're planning on floating and stealing later. But the backdoor outs and over are good spots to employ an OOP float. I wouldn't do it if I had A9o unless I was really confident I could get a fold. It's just not as an ideal of a hand and flop as the hand in the example.

Figaroo2 said:

Gives us a chance! been at work all day!

I take it you saving the turn small overbet tactic for hands with a little less equity than this?
I can see we wouldn't want to get shoved on if we led fairly large into the turn with this exact hand. But where is the cut off between the two tactics?

Click to expand...

Correct. No point to overbet turn when you pick up that much equity. You're looking to spike or bluff the river, because me c/cing on that flop and turn and me leading river looking like I have Kx or better a huge% of the time. So thus the overbet, because I will use this link on this kind of board w/ a flopped set, 2 pair, etc... and like I said, sometimes even a spiked top pair (but some other conditions apply in that situation as well).

Hi. Is it too late for me to join the discussion?

I've been reading the book (and this thread), and I have found it to be quite helpful. I have encountered a few strategies that other books do not advocate (or even advise against), but that seem to work to some extent for me.

Anyway, if I am not allowed to post here (due to being several years late, lol), I will understand.

BuzzKillington said:

Hi. Is it too late for me to join the discussion?

I've been reading the book (and this thread), and I have found it to be quite helpful. I have encountered a few strategies that other books do not advocate (or even advise against), but that seem to work to some extent for me.

Anyway, if I am not allowed to post here (due to being several years late, lol), I will understand.

Click to expand...

Everyone is welcome at any time. So welcome.

And yes, there's unique strategies I've talked about over the years. I only talk about what works. and what I've used that has worked. Poker is a constantly evolving theory process, and you have to understand how most players are thinking about the game, and exploit the weaknesses in their theories/tactics.

Which is why we're going to continue to focus on the new BB cold calling fade, because it's highly exploitable. Like I've said in other threads, pros advocated for a long time to fold too many hands in the BB, now pros are advocating calling too many hands. This is how poker theory always develops, from one extreme to the other. We like to look at the balanced theory that can exploit both of these extremes.