Figaroo2 said:
This is a tough spot I agree that the big overbet looks like a set.
AK would likely have been 3 bet for value against you although I wouldn't totally rule it out.
Having 13 pure outs here makes this a really difficult fold, in the heat of it if you managed to fold i'd be impressed.
In the cold light despite his big opening ranges and your 13 outs, his post flop agg figure of 1.3 suggests to me he is not overly agg post flop and therefore isn't into a lot of post flop bluffing.
As we discussed before, big bets at this level usually mean what they say on the tin unless you have evidence to the contrary that he bluffs regularly.
As a result of those two factors combined I'm reluctantly folding here.
I have recently added separate flop, turn and river aggression factors into my HUD as I find the overall post flop agg factor a bit too generic.
Having stats for each street allows you to differentiate single and double barrellers which helps with our floating. It also helps spotting other floaters and river bluffers who only come alive at the end.
I'd be looking for reads as to his general specific turn aggression factor to help my decision here. If his turn aggression factor is low then I would consider this is a surefire fold.
(spoiler I wrote this prior to seeing you called, bad luck man)
^^^^^^^
Nevertheless, you post was spot on.! thanks alot.
As far as the adding AF per street into my HUD. Im not going to do it.
My hud is an aid. The only stats i REALLLLLYYYYY use from it are
VPIP/PFR and 3BET.
the rest are just there for special effects.
Im 3tabling rush and dont have time to get into details or look at pop ups or whatever. I totally get where your coming from figaro and it really seems like you have put alot of thought into your game and the game in general.
I have posted folding sets, folding straights,folding boats cause i was scared of a higher boat . etc etc. So trust me , im good at folding. (especially lately)
Problem with this hand is he raise me on the flop. due to the fact that i have top two pair , its highly unlikely that he has a set of jacks or Aces , so a set of 5's is probably the most likely hand here.
Then when we look at his line when he flats my flop 4bet,in combination with the fact that i pickup FD on turn, i just think that folding in this spot is HORRIBAD, regardless of what math, logic or anything else suggests.
this is a hand that played itself out giving me top two on flop and the nut flush on the turn.
I'm thinking in my mind while in game: " if im gonna get stacked here then so be it, but im not going to play like a wimp folding monster
hands like this", especially since i have made MUCH lighter calldowns in the past with worse and won too.
You feel me bro?
