How much luck do you think is involved in Texas Hold'em?

Dutydog · Oct 24, 2019

As the old joke goes: It’s about 90% skill and the other half is luck.

frnandoh · Oct 25, 2019

There is no luck on poker in the long term, just a inclined up or down line.

hellomynameiswhat · Oct 25, 2019

Great question. I think there is a big misconception out there that poker is the same as slot machines. There is no luck in long term poker. Only skill.

tehb1987 · Oct 25, 2019

Any skill and the skill is broken without luck. Otherwise there would simply be no variance. In fact, the variance is nothing more than an alternation of successful and unsuccessful days. Another thing is that successful days without skills will be much less. But this does not negate the fact that without luck in poker there is nothing to do.

Erik moraes · Nov 20, 2019

I can not say in percentage but luck has a large part in poker because you can know how to play but if hit the cards of the opponent is no use your skills

elJenio8 · Nov 20, 2019

I always lose to a 3 to 1 , or 2 to 1 situation..

So i guess 70% depends on luck (when there are big blinds)

In lower stages of tournaments it can be less luck involved

gon4iypes · Nov 20, 2019

I don't think there is anywhere near as much "luck" as most people say. I mean if you play HU with Daniel Negreanu, the cards are totally random and who do you think will come out on top in the end? His skill will override any luck we may have

queenE · Nov 20, 2019

gon4iypes said:
I don't think there is anywhere near as much "luck" as most people say. I mean if you play HU with Daniel Negreanu, the cards are totally random and who do you think will come out on top in the end? His skill will override any luck we may have

Only good players have the right to think so...otherwise for others luck plus the basic knowledge of the game is all they got

eniseysmail · Nov 20, 2019

But there are days when there is no luck at all, zero percent ... is not it?

Joe · Nov 20, 2019

Heresthecooler said:
Hello to all,

How much luck do you think is involved in Texas Hold 'em?

As much or as little as you decide to allow into the game.

The more risk you take the more you rely on chance to win, the less risk you take the higher the probability will be of winning.

The problem arises due to the infrequency of 'sure things' in poker, i.e. the nuts or stone nuts, so depending on the format more chances have to be taken opposed to always waiting to be nutted.

Your OP is a question for which the answer will differ from format to format, game to game, table to table.

My answer is dependent on variables such as skill level, buy-in level, level of intoxication and so on.

I choose to believe that whilst in the short-term luck can be a bigger factor and although there is almost always an element of luck, poker is a game of skill. Skill in combinations of areas simultaneously.

May the run-good appear when we need it most!

praevus · Nov 20, 2019

If you think about one day / tournament probably 80%, but if you think about 1 month or several tournaments about 20%.
Luck is as much a part of poker as it is in most sports, but the more right choices you make in the long run, the greater your chance of winning.

ToNy70929 · Nov 20, 2019

The whole game in Texas Hold'em is built on luck. Often, luck turns away from you, there are no coincidences in the game, you see this, and it saddens you very much.

Rahatis · Nov 20, 2019

There is no luck involved in finding the table with the most people believing that it's more a game of luck than skills.

AizenFalck · Nov 20, 2019

I don't think there is a single texas holdem player who does not know that luck plays a fundamental role in the game, I have always believed that it represents one of the things that most attract players apart from money, I will be lucky or not, it will be my day or not?

ldw22 · Nov 20, 2019

Poker, fundamentally, is a skill game. Sure, it's a probabilities game (among other things), and anything that involves probabilities necessarily involves instances of the improbable result occurring. And over short periods of time, an improbable result can keep happening more often than the probable result. That's just variance. Over a long enough timeline (or more accurately, over a high enough number of poker hands played), variance evens out completely, making poker a 100% skill game... But of course, over a long enough timeline, the survival rate of everything drops to zero, so in other words, most of us will be long-dead before we've played nearly enough poker hands for variance to even out!

underdog140 · Nov 20, 2019

I view luck differently than most.

I believe in variance but I also believe there are unlucky people in this world and that applies to poker players as well. In short there can be an unlucky player who runs below the expected win rates of AA and other lucky players that have their AA winning more than it should.

gallora · Dec 20, 2019

Luck is a short moment confirming the theory of probability.

Alex Sentsov · Dec 20, 2019

I know I'll win no matter how well you did not play!

ronn6583 · Dec 20, 2019

I think luck and skill 50/50, when players are exposed preflop (if you exclude AA and KK). Such nominations often result in Coinflip with a 55% chance against 45%.
If there is no invoicing on preflop role of excellence rises until 70% against 30%. Because it is dominated by skills and psychology.

Zvezda kz · Dec 20, 2019

I can not say purely mathematically. But, according to my feelings, luck in poker is 25-30% at a full table, I think that about 40% is heads-up. Maybe I'm wrong.

xpvictor1 · Dec 20, 2019

I am in the minority

I believe luck plays a bigger role than skill for online poker.

Matt_Burns88 · Feb 17, 2020

Of course, luck is a major component of poker, but you can mitigate it a lot by playing a good solid game.

What you need to think about is that luck is a good thing, even for the better players, because luck is what allows even the worst players to win occasionally and make them want to come back for more and then the winning players have the opportunity to win even more.

Remember that the longer term outlook you have, the less luck plays a part.

HectorTadeu · Feb 17, 2020

For me i'ts like 20%

TheDev · Feb 17, 2020

I fully believe you cant win a decent sized tournament without having a little luck on your side. You can play good, smart poker and still lose to a bad beat. In just about every tournament I've won or placed high in, I have had at least one or 2 hands where I needed some luck to fall my way and it did. I do play pretty tight and conservative usually but when you go all in and find out you are behind, you need lady luck to give you a hand.

You should not play hoping to get lucky though. That is a just bad poker.

Acechador · Feb 17, 2020

Luck is the same for everyone, but the important thing about this game is not luck but the way you can understand your opponent's game.

How much luck do you think is involved in Texas Hold'em?

Dutydog

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hellomynameiswhat

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tehb1987

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Joe

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