Rigged: The AA test

All in with AAs

I would say that I will lose if going all in with AAs 90 % of the time.

I cant say that this is an exact per centage, but, I will lose most of the time with AAs.

angie

I have played in many games where there were pocket AAs, Pocket KKs, and pocket QQs or JJs.

That are the odds of three monster pocket pairs existing on the board.

And, what are the odds that it happens over and over again.

angie

I dont know if fixed is the correct word, but not sure it is not.

Seems, the computer program should be designed to deal the cards in a normal sequence. Similiar as in a live game.

However, if you ask the poker sites this question, they go into a long speel about computer programing and other confusing computer issues that I do not understard.

Altho, I am not sure that the word "fixed" is the correct term. I do believe that the computers are programed to speed up the game.

They, ( the poker site) sure dont want a game to last forever.

Problem being, I our government, (USA) would legalize on line poke, and regulate it accordly, we woud have all these problems solved. And, the games woud be fair for all players.

So, until Government takes the approprite action, we will continue to have these doubts.

angie

They do it very easily. Programing computer software.

For example, the slops in the brick and motar gaming houses have software to allow the player to win a certain amount of the time.

It is very simple for a computer programer to create software to allow any sequence of cards to be delt.

Another example, if a computer programer can create a software program to allow a space craft to fly several hundred thousands of miles to Mars and then have it land safely. A poker program would be childs play.

angie

its amazing how much math that goes into all these things, i just dont see a point to rig something considering the people they have supporting these sites such as the pros etc. Idk maybe its just me but ive had alot of bad beats online as apposed to the casino maybe its just bad play ;/

45/100 of one per cent

Tygran said:

Minor correction, your odds are correct but the decimal is off a point in the percentage .

Should be ~ .45% chance




Is that not 45/100 of one per cent? Not that I am a math genius or anything.

angie

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rigged variance

We're all stuck with Murphy's Law. I don't know anybody who wins all the time, or loses all the time. You go on runs, win or lose. Just join a bunch of sites, and get the whole experience.

I hate AA at Fulltilt. Everybody with 66 is calling you (and is winning ). AA winning chance for me is 70%

AA good or bad ?

for my part i win only 17 ones whit a pair of aces on 52 times when i play this . Most times a bad river ho give a straight or a fluhs to the other ones. Maybe it is not a good had for me
1463 hands i see 52AA 17won 35looses play at same time on PS , FTP & PKR

here is my last one (just now too)

ARG why oh why lol

here is the HH too...
PokerStars Game #19737775202: Tournament #102283588, Freeroll Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2008/08/19 - 13:43:27 (ET)
Table '102283588 266' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: hernNN (1410 in chips)
Seat 2: DToss10 (1490 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 3: antour (1740 in chips)
Seat 4: rockdown (1620 in chips)
Seat 5: OttawaChris (790 in chips)
Seat 6: jamesflame23 (1600 in chips)
Seat 7: JSlingoP (2440 in chips)
Seat 8: AMARAK (2145 in chips)
Seat 9: laller30 (1765 in chips)
hernNN: posts small blind 15
DToss10: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to OttawaChris [Ad Ah]
antour: folds
rockdown: folds
OttawaChris: raises 90 to 120
jamesflame23: folds
JSlingoP: folds
AMARAK: calls 120
laller30: calls 120
hernNN: folds
DToss10: folds
*** FLOP *** [3d Jd 4c]
OttawaChris: bets 420
AMARAK: calls 420
laller30: folds
*** TURN *** [3d Jd 4c] [Ts]
OttawaChris: bets 250 and is all-in
AMARAK: calls 250
*** RIVER *** [3d Jd 4c Ts] 5♥
*** SHOW DOWN ***
OttawaChris: shows [Ad Ah] (a pair of Aces)
AMARAK: shows [Ac 2c] (a straight, Ace to Five)
AMARAK collected 1745 from pot
laila5 is connected
jamesflame23 said, "gross"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1745 | Rake 0
Board [3d Jd 4c Ts 5h]
Seat 1: hernNN (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: DToss10 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: antour folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: rockdown folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: OttawaChris showed [Ad Ah] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 6: jamesflame23 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: JSlingoP folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: AMARAK showed [Ac 2c] and won (1745) with a straight, Ace to Five
Seat 9: laller30 (button) folded on the Flop

Does cheating happen in online poker? YES....but I have never seen anything to indicate its by the site. What happened at absoute was NOT the site cheating, it was an employee proving that it could be done. Most cheating happens via instant messanger. 3,4, 5 or even more friends will take 1 table in a ring game and trade notes on cards they have via IMs. Be wary of ring games with people in the same home town or seem to be very friendly with each other.

It happened to me at JETSET, thats why i will no longer play there

you guys are all great, all the tests, arguements, and theories. i always figured it wouldnt be rigged, its just buisness- and poker buisness is good, why ruin a good thing, i did believe they put out more good hands for a bigger rake, but that seems proven untrue...and my own theory, in my last year of many real life games...ive seen more crazy hands, bad beats, runner runners and river hits then i ever seen online...so, my theory, poker sux... and i love it like sooo many others.
SH!T HAPPENS especially in poker, dont cry to me when you lose...Im still crying myself from all the donks who still get me
thx again all, great post

67,126 hands at FTP
AA 303 times (right on expectation I believe)

Pocket AA

I just got busted with pocket AAs.

I was in the SB and getting low on chips. Had an "M" of about 3 and everyone checked around to me, the SB.

Well, I had pocket 88s and decided to raise and force out the BB and get the blinds and antes.

Well, first I bet 1,000 and then after the flop, went all in.

BB was sitting on pocket AAs. Then another A on 4th street and a K on the river. Giving him Acess full of KKs.

Did I ever pick a bad time to push.

I will make one last comment on this, then I am going to let this dog lie. I have gotten my AA beat many times, I have cleaned up with them many times and all in all, I would still rather see that AA when I look at my cards than any other 2 cards. Here is one last thought. with all the "all in" donkys hanging out at tables these days (Dear God yes, they have left the freerolls and migrated to ring games) Why would anysite NEED to generate larger pots? Just go to the lits of cash table and look at the avg. pot sizes.

WVHillbilly said:

67,126 hands at Full Tilt Poker
AA 303 times (right on expectation I believe)

Click to expand...

Wit all the noise about whether OLP is rigged I seem to have missed this contribution from one of the few remaining members who remember that this is a study we're conducting, not a bull shit session. I'll up date this tonight ofr tomorrow Hillbilly.

Thanks

HELLo

this a very hard poker room to get in to any one else have trouble

Four Dogs said:

Wit all the noise about whether OLP is rigged I seem to have missed this contribution from one of the few remaining members who remember that this is a study we're conducting, not a bull shit session. I'll up date this tonight ofr tomorrow Hillbilly.

Thanks

Click to expand...

Just my attempt to right the ship.

"Is it a reasonable thing, I ask you, for a grown man to run about and hit a ball? Poker's the only game fit for a grown man. Then, your hand is against every man's, and every man's is against yours. Teamwork? Who ever made a fortune by teamwork? There's only one way to make a fortune, and that's to down the fellow who's up against you." - W. Somerset Maugham

Love the Thread.......Great respones too.........At the end of the day however, even if the statistics are proved to be a little off.....everyone is still in the same boat......you have to play your cards in the belief you can win the hand.

WVHillbilly said:

67,126 hands at Full Tilt Poker
AA 303 times (right on expectation I believe)

Click to expand...

Thank you Hillbilly.

"Thinking anecdotally comes naturally to humans, thinking scientifically does not." - Michael Shermer

appstatepkr77 said:

How do you know the expected # of times your suppose to get AA?

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Not supposed to get, expected to get. There are 1326 unique combinations of 2 card starting hands and 6 cominations of AA which make AA (or any pair for that matter) .4525% of all starting hands. That's 1 in 221 or 220:1.

AAs Rigged

I am not sure if the AAs are rigged or not. But, it is good reading. I enjoy getting the threads. haha

mange said:

I am not sure if the AAs are rigged or not. But, it is good reading. I enjoy getting the threads. haha

Click to expand...

Thank you sir. We aim to please.

Expected?

Expected means what? I dont get it

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ChippedToothDon said:

Expected means what? I dont get it

Click to expand...

I assume you're asking about this.

appstatepkr77 said:

How do you know the expected # of times your suppose to get AA?

Click to expand...

Four Dogs said:

Not supposed to get, expected to get. There are 1326 unique combinations of 2 card starting hands and 6 cominations of AA which make AA (or any pair for that matter) .4525% of all starting hands. That's 1 in 221 or 220:1.

Click to expand...

Whenever your dealing with statistics and probability, your dealing with uncertain outcomes. Although you can never be certain of an exact outcome you can still predict it's likelyhood of occuring. Expectation is just that, the likelyhood of an uncertain events occurance.

In the above post, appstatepkr77 used the term supposed to and I corrected him. In my opinion, supposed to instead of expected to implies that there's something wrong with the software or random number generator if you don't get exactly the number calculated as the expected value. Statistically, we can calculate exactly how likely a pocket pair like AA is to occur in a given number of hand, its frequency, but it is very rare that that exact expectation will actually happen. In fact, I wouldn't bet on it.

AA is probably the hardest hand to lay down no madder what. people play entire tournament and never catch AA and then might catch it and still be beat. people have mad an assuption that AA is unbeatable but in reality can be beat 50% of the time.