Rigged: The AA test

deadhxc said:

adding my hands here

tourny = 42 AA out of 8314 hands
cash = 16 AA out of 3857 hands

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Only taking the cash hands deadhxc. Also, I need to know what site these hands were played at.

JOHN-E-FLUSH said:

If there is any riggin goin on one thing i have noticed is how the short stacks seem to be the ones pushed out late in tourneys.
the quicker a guy gets knocked out the quicker he will jump into another event.....but thats just my opinon.

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Lol. You don't say, the short stacks huh? Hmm. Now that is weird. I wonder why that might be?:dontknow:

Four Dogs said:

Only taking the cash hands deadhxc. Also, I need to know what site these hands were played at.

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k now its up to 29 out of 6778 hands all at full tilt

This thread got me to realize online poker IS rigged!!!!!

Pokerstars:
Hands - 112,433

AA - 444
(AA Expected) - 511

I'm running 13% shy on aces, who's got my 13%???



Oh wait....my kings have it

I think the "rigged" debate isnt about Aces, its about how many big hands occur.

There are always straights, flushes, draws on the turn, two pairs vs trips, full houses all the time. It isnt realistic. The river card matters 90% of the time. The short stack loses a showdown 90% of the time.

There are sometimes very unlikely runner-runner situations, and they happen a lot more than they do in real life.

I guarantee out of the next 5 times you hit trips on the flop, there will be a flush or straight draw by the turn at least 3 of the times.

Other's AAs

What you are doing is agood idea to hopefully shut those crybabies up. But, i dont think the test is complete unless we track all the AAs on the tables. I am no statistician but i think i am on the right track here.

mdafka said:

I asked earlier on, but recieved no reply.
can anyone tell me how to derive theses stats from Full Tilt Poker and/or Pokerstars hand histories?
Tx

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You need to select the Save Poker Hand options at either Full Tilt or Poker Stars and use Poker Tracker or Poker Office.

deadhxc said:

k now its up to 29 out of 6778 hands all at full tilt

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Full Tilt, Good. Expected 30.67. Pretty close, but the Full Tilt Poker deviation is still way off. At this stage in the game 350,000 hands or so, Pokerstars had settled nicely into the lower 100ths of a percentage point, about where it is now. Full Tilt is still bouncing around a full 2% off. That's not good.

I see you Mase31683 but I'm just too damned tired to update another on tonight. I'll get back to to you. Thanks though.

"There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact. " ~Mark Twain

Well one things is for certain, both the 'Ultimate Bet' and 'Absolute Poker' Scandals definately added fuel to the fire of this debate i.m.o.:tomato:

*sigh* i've read two pages of this thread and i'm done. I don't get the point are you trying to prove that AA is dealt more than it's suppose too or u trying to prove that sites are providing monster hands to multiple players in a hand to increase rake. Well, i'm sorry i don't know if anyone has pointed this out, but the way sites make their money is by the more people they get to sign up and deposit their money. If you notice everytime you log out from a site a message pops up on your computer screen with a referral program where you get money if you get others to sign up on their site and play a certain amount of hands. Also, first time deposit bonus that's how sites make their money. The more that play the more you make. Belive me I know, i've try a pyramid scheme before and the thing the company taught me is the more people that i approach the more chance i have of making money, the more people i have working under me the more i make money.
This is a cool thread, i would like to see that stats on getting AA or KK bc it seems some of you are determine to figure that out and that's awesome. But as far as an agrument toward poker being rig, you are not going to prove anything. and your not going to change some's opinion's about online poker being rig. there are some sore losers out there, actually a lot.
so can we please stop talking about rigging and actually play better poker.
thanks for your time

I love a challenge! Seriously, ChesterFlick, you need to lighten up...I rarely see posts bashing people. What exactly do dislike about UB?

What many don't seem to understand is that software programs run online games and that randomness is easily manipulated. Tuning is the programmer's lingo for it. In fact I think I've read somewhere that the randomness is monitored and the randomness is adjusted if it isn't within the randomness "requirements" of the software.

hbkmad said:

*sigh* i've read two pages of this thread and i'm done. I don't get the point are you trying to prove that AA is dealt more than it's suppose too or u trying to prove that sites are providing monster hands to multiple players in a hand to increase rake. Well, i'm sorry i don't know if anyone has pointed this out, but the way sites make their money is by the more people they get to sign up and deposit their money. If you notice everytime you log out from a site a message pops up on your computer screen with a referral program where you get money if you get others to sign up on their site and play a certain amount of hands. Also, first time deposit bonus that's how sites make their money. The more that play the more you make. Belive me I know, i've try a pyramid scheme before and the thing the company taught me is the more people that i approach the more chance i have of making money, the more people i have working under me the more i make money.
This is a cool thread, i would like to see that stats on getting AA or KK bc it seems some of you are determine to figure that out and that's awesome. But as far as an agrument toward poker being rig, you are not going to prove anything. and your not going to change some's opinion's about online poker being rig. there are some sore losers out there, actually a lot.
so can we please stop talking about rigging and actually play better poker.
thanks for your time

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Rigging or expediency?

There's more to poker than AA and KK.


PokerStars Game 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Yogi (1110 in chips)
Seat 2: big (6360 in chips)
Seat 3: MARS (5520 in chips)
Seat 4: jamy (1460 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 5: Span (1250 in chips)
Seat 6: Miss (5400 in chips)
Seat 7: razor (2500 in chips)
Seat 8: Mario (1080 in chips)
Seat 9: qqq (1250 in chips)
razor227: posts small blind 15
Mario_10_J: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Yogi [Jh As]
qqq: folds
Yogi: raises 270 to 300
big: calls 300
MARS: folds
jamy: folds
Span: folds
Miss: folds
razor: calls 285
Mario: calls 270
*** FLOP *** [Jc Qc 4d]
razor: checks
Mario: bets 780 and is all-in
Yogi: raises 30 to 810 and is all-in
big: calls 810
razor: calls 810
*** TURN *** [Jc Qc 4d] 8♠
razor: checks
big: bets 5250 and is all-in
razor: calls 1390 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (3860) returned to big
*** RIVER *** [Jc Qc 4d 8s] A♣
*** SHOW DOWN ***
razor: shows [Ts 9s] (a straight, Eight to Queen)
big: shows [Js Qd] (two pair, Queens and Jacks)
razor collected 2780 from side pot-2
Yogi: shows [Jh As] (two pair, Aces and Jacks)
razor collected 90 from side pot-1
Mario: shows [Qs Ad] (two pair, Aces and Queens)
razor collected 4320 from main pot

*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 7190 Main pot 4320. Side pot-1 90. Side pot-2 2780. | Rake 0
Board [Jc Qc 4d 8s Ac]
Seat 1: showed [Jh As] and lost with two pair, Aces and Jacks
Seat 2: showed [Js Qd] and lost with two pair, Queens and Jacks
Seat 3: folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: (small blind) showed [Ts 9s] and won (7190) with a straight, Eight to Queen
Seat 8: (big blind) showed [Qs Ad] and lost with two pair, Aces and Queens
Seat 9: folded before Flop (didn't bet)

odinscott said:

They steal from you? Who? Do you play against the poker site? How the hell are they stealing from you, if you are playing against other people? If it was rigged, you are still losing to another player, not the site itself.

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It's called thrashing.

The_OG_Rocco said:

Well one things is for certain, both the 'Ultimate Bet' and 'Absolute Poker' Scandals definately added fuel to the fire of this debate i.m.o.:tomato:

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Now that's weird. My first posts and look who's here.

WCFields said:

Now that's weird. My first posts and look who's here.

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Ha! Small world eh? :tee:

I have been reading these post for some time now and just started my own test the other day. but instead of testing to see how many times i get dealt AA i am seeing how many times an A hits the board against 3 other random cards that i determined before i began my test. I have been getting some bad beats by people who never fold the ace and it will hit on the turn or the river so i wanted to see how it would compare. i will post my information here when i am finished with my results.

I don't know how many time's I have had pocket As, but i know I have lost more than I have won with them. There are to many draw's that can happen,I hope it's not rigged I love to play online poker. Don't have any home game's or a casino to play at. Good Luck All!!!

Site: FULLtilt
Number of ring hands: 17,216
Dealt AA: 66
Expected: 68
I am dealt AA: 1/261 hands
Wins: 83% app.
Pretty close to what odds say, 4 and a half to 1 favorite holding AA , winning 83% is pretty close

The AA or KK odds don't mean anything. The odds of getting multiple monster hands from one deal is what should concern online players. It seems players are lured, randomly of course, into all in situations.

for me it feels like that on ipoker tables there is always a lot of action that makes big pots and in cause of this a lot of rake too

thanks for posting this thresad four dogs! THe stats seem pretty close, so i would have to say that the poker sites Are not rigging the hands. This make sense because i don't think hte want any legal action. Correct?

AA

From a data perspective, the numbers are pretty much near what is expected...win% would be skewed based on the players skill, agressiveness, etc. Also -don't rule the DONK factor....position etc...

Great thread,

Steve

Mase31683 said:

This thread got me to realize online poker IS rigged!!!!!

Pokerstars:
Hands - 112,433

AA - 444
(AA Expected) - 511

I'm running 13% shy on aces, who's got my 13%???



Oh wait....my kings have it

Click to expand...

It seems as though lately all my posts to this thread have started out with an apology for taking so long to update the results. And this one is no different. Between work, kids, soccer, servicing my lovely wife and actually playing poker, there are just way too many demands apon my time to keep up with this thread the way all you fine folks diserve. But please be patient and I promise that every new contribution to our now extensive database will be adressed.

Mase, this is really an interesting sample. Are you sure about these results? In almost a year of running this thread I don't think I've seen results this far off expected. What software did you use to filter the HH's?
I get 509 as expected, but you're right. It's about 13% off. Up to now, PokerStars has impressed me with its consistency and accuracy. I'll still update, but do me a favor and take another look just to be sure.

I just wanted to thank the OP for putting together these tables. As much as we all think the sites are rigged, it seems clear that they are not (at least as far as this single test is concerned). Would it be possible to have a test where all ins pre flop were calculated to see if the short stack does in fact win more of these?

My statistics:

Site: Full Tilt
hands:34748
AA:157
expected:158

BULLSEYE!

i desire love said:

Site: FULLtilt
Number of ring hands: 17,216
Dealt AA: 66
Expected: 68
I am dealt AA: 1/261 hands
Wins: 83% app.
Pretty close to what odds say, 4 and a half to 1 favorite holding AA , winning 83% is pretty close

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I get 78. Interesting poker name

"Believe nothing just because a so-called wise person said it. Believe nothing just because a belief is generally held. Believe nothing just because it is said in ancient books. Believe nothing just because it is said to be of divine origin. Believe nothing just because someone else believes it. Believe only what you yourself test and judge to be true."

-Buddha

I think it's obvious where the cries of "It's rigged" come from, losing players. Has Phil Ivey ever complained about Full Tilt being rigged? No because he earns a bomb and if it were rigged I think the pros, who know their stats better than we do would be a little suspicious. Nice to see scientific evidence to dispel a myth.