Rigged: The AA test

pokerman125x · Nov 19, 2008

Site: Pokerstars
Number of ring hands: 62,394
Dealt AA: 287
Expected: 329

__________________

MrSwissCheese · Nov 22, 2008

Why does everyone think that these extremely tiny statistical examples are worthwhile? You don't need millions of hands, you need millions of millions of hands.

Think about this - How many different ways can a deck of cards be arranged? Well, at the top of the deck, there can be any one of the 52 cards. The second card down will be any one of the remaining 51 cards, so statistically speaking, there can be 2,652 different combinations of cards in just the top two cards in a deck. Adding the 3rd card multiplies 2,652 by the 50 remaining cards for a total of 132,600 different combinations for the top 3 cards. To compute the total number of different combinations for an entire deck of cards, we would have to multiply 52 x 51 x 50 x 49 x . . . . x 3 x 2 x 1. The mathematical term for this if 52 factorial or 52!, which is multiplying 52 times every number below it.

So, if we continue on down through the numbers. . .

At 10 Cards - 57,407,703,889,536,000 combinations
At 20 Cards - 306,532,583,223,110,000,000,000,000,000,000 combinations
At 26 Cards (1/2 Deck) - 2 x 10^41 or 199,999,709,752,404,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 combinations
Full Deck - 8 x 10^67, or 80,658,175,170,943,900,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

So when you look at how 1,000,000 hands are dealt, you will see statistics start getting closer to the norm (1 out of every 221 hands or so) - but still don't be surprised if it's one out of every 230 or 210.

The whole concept of a poker site (or a real casino) rigging anything is just outlandish to me. They will make money hand over fist following the rules and not rigging anything. The next thing that we're going to hear is that the poker sites have two different rules - one for the low limit tables and one for the high limit tables - the high limit tables aren't rigged (if they were, why would the poker pros go there), but the low limits are.

Ironically, as I was posting this thread, I was playing the CardsChat Saturday freeroll and was dealt my second set of pocket As today. I ended up losing to a pair of 4s that hit trips on the turn and quads on the river. I suppose this is where I could blow up and scream about AA being rigged, but I think I'll go the opposite direction -

IT'S POKER - SH*T HAPPENS!

Merlin50 · Nov 22, 2008

I can lose with any hand

Craig21 · Nov 22, 2008

poker online is definately fixed but its the same for every1 no matter how many times you get aces

MrSwissCheese · Nov 22, 2008

Craig21 said:
Poker online is definately fixed but its the same for every1 no matter how many times you get aces

I hate to say this - it's not directed specifically at you - more to anyone who believes that it is rigged.

If you honestly believe that it is rigged, you are a fool for playing the game. If I knew a gas station's pumps were rigged to charge me more (like putting 18 gallons into a 15 gallon tank), I wouldn't go there, I'd find another station that was honest not just write it off as "all the pumps are rigged."

I guess the wsop is rigged too, I mean if it wasn't then the best players would be at the final table every year. How long has it been since a poker pro won it? Better yet, how long has it been since half the final table was made up of pros?

WCFields · Nov 22, 2008

MrSwissCheese said:
I hate to say this - it's not directed specifically at you - more to anyone who believes that it is rigged.

If you honestly believe that it is rigged, you are a fool for playing the game. If I knew a gas station's pumps were rigged to charge me more (like putting 18 gallons into a 15 gallon tank), I wouldn't go there, I'd find another station that was honest not just write it off as "all the pumps are rigged."

I guess the WSOP is rigged too, I mean if it wasn't then the best players would be at the final table every year. How long has it been since a poker pro won it? Better yet, how long has it been since half the final table was made up of pros?

It's all in the numbers. It's essentially 200 or 300 wild players shooting for the stars against each "great" pro.

I was in a live game, $40 buy in, last night and the play had so much overbetting I couldn't get into a hand even on my blinds for almost two hours. In the first 5 hands this wildman won like 600 dollars. Then he proceeded to lose it all as other players over bet and rebuyed if they lost.

I did learn one lesson. To not cash some of your chips to another player unless it hardly dents your stack. Your chip stack is an unheralded part of your game. It can prevent a lot of suckout calls.

WCFields · Nov 22, 2008

MrSwissCheese said:
Why does everyone think that these extremely tiny statistical examples are worthwhile? You don't need millions of hands, you need millions of millions of hands.

Think about this - How many different ways can a deck of cards be arranged? Well, at the top of the deck, there can be any one of the 52 cards. The second card down will be any one of the remaining 51 cards, so statistically speaking, there can be 2,652 different combinations of cards in just the top two cards in a deck. Adding the 3rd card multiplies 2,652 by the 50 remaining cards for a total of 132,600 different combinations for the top 3 cards. To compute the total number of different combinations for an entire deck of cards, we would have to multiply 52 x 51 x 50 x 49 x . . . . x 3 x 2 x 1. The mathematical term for this if 52 factorial or 52!, which is multiplying 52 times every number below it.

So, if we continue on down through the numbers. . .

At 10 Cards - 57,407,703,889,536,000 combinations
At 20 Cards - 306,532,583,223,110,000,000,000,000,000,000 combinations
At 26 Cards (1/2 Deck) - 2 x 10^41 or 199,999,709,752,404,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 combinations
Full Deck - 8 x 10^67, or 80,658,175,170,943,900,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

So when you look at how 1,000,000 hands are dealt, you will see statistics start getting closer to the norm (1 out of every 221 hands or so) - but still don't be surprised if it's one out of every 230 or 210.

The whole concept of a poker site (or a real casino) rigging anything is just outlandish to me. They will make money hand over fist following the rules and not rigging anything. The next thing that we're going to hear is that the poker sites have two different rules - one for the low limit tables and one for the high limit tables - the high limit tables aren't rigged (if they were, why would the poker pros go there), but the low limits are.

Ironically, as I was posting this thread, I was playing the CardsChat Saturday freeroll and was dealt my second set of pocket As today. I ended up losing to a pair of 4s that hit trips on the turn and quads on the river. I suppose this is where I could blow up and scream about AA being rigged, but I think I'll go the opposite direction -

IT'S POKER - SH*T HAPPENS!

Maybe so but your numbers are waaaaay off.

At 20 Cards - 306,532,583,223,110,000,000,000,000,000,000

Is just silly.

MrSwissCheese · Nov 22, 2008

WCFields said:
Maybe so but your numbers are waaaaay off.

At 20 Cards - 306,532,583,223,110,000,000,000,000,000,000

Is just silly.

I guess math is just silly then. I'm sorry you feel that way. Perhaps rather than calling it just silly and saying it's waaaaay off, perhaps you could throw me a number that's more reasonable.

Imagine how difficult it would be to win a state lotto or Powerball if you had to get the 6 out of 52 numbers in the EXACT order? Here we're talking about picking 52 out of 52 lottery balls and you have to get them in the exact order. The thing that you have to keep in mind about this [Ad] - [As] is different than [As] - [Ad].

You will agree that you could have any one of 52 cards as the top card in a deck, correct? So there are 52 different combinations of the first card. You should then be able to agree that there could be any one of 51 remaining cards as the second card (since the top card was already used). That leads us to 52*51 (or 2,652 different combinations for the first two cards alone. Do you disagree with this?

So after 5 cards in the deck, 52*51*50*49*48 = 311,875,200 different combinations in the top 5 cards of the deck alone.

I guess if you want to disagree with me, you're welcome to do that. I would love to have someone who has more than a couple of years of Probability and Statistics classes either dispute it or confirm it. However, until proven wrong, I will certainly stand behind my numbers.

MrSwissCheese · Nov 23, 2008

WCFields said:
You're right. But the numbers are still silly.

But to give the numbers actual value shouldn't they be divided by 4?

Definitely not. That would be like saying that a 4♣ is the same as a 4♦. If you were wanting to know only based on rank, not on suit, then yes. If you were figuring out actual poker hands, then it gets a little more confusing because order doesn't matter (i.e. being dealt 4♣4♦ is the same as 4♦4♣), but we're talking about ways to shuffle a deck, so each card is unique.

Since each card is unique, you could label the cards starting with the A♦ as 1 through K♦ as 13, A♥ as 14 through K♥ as 26, A♣ as 27 through K♣ as 39, and A♠ as 40 through K♠ as 52. This gets back to the 52 ball lottery comparison.

TrapStar · Nov 30, 2008

Yeah you're probably right, but who's to say that they don't make it so you get your AA when another guy just happens to be due for his KK? lol

brett987 · Dec 2, 2008

i agree AA vs 93 is almost impossible to lose..but somehow almost 40% of the time you lose i think it is rigged

Checkyoself1 · Dec 3, 2008

thats jokes

Passion_play · Dec 3, 2008

AA is a hard hand!
You either Love it or Hate it.. hehe

Ranked right up there with 22..

good luck

colquhounx · Dec 4, 2008

I,see,people,complain,all,the,time,on,all,sites,in,freerolls,that,the,site,is,rigged.
And,I,ask,them,why,rig,a,freeroll?They,just,get,madder,lol.
sorry,spacebar,is,broken(drinking,and,typing)

Knives412 · Dec 6, 2008

Theres always a lot of talk about bad beast and crazy things happening but I usually chalk it up to the fact that online cards and hands get delt and played way faster so you see tons more hands. In light of that obviously your gonna see lots of crazy things more often then you would in live games cause you see less hands. But on the other hand it is impossible for computers to be truely random, thats just a fact.

jnn112002 · Dec 7, 2008

Rigged?

Yea im tired of full tilt being rigged plus i know plenty of F***ing cheaters that use hacking software to win.

paddythejack · Dec 8, 2008

THIS IS 1 VERY LONG THREAD ITS GOING ALL YEAR ,BUT REALLY ARE THE POKER SITES REALLY RIGGED MOST PROBABLY BUT I BET ANY MONEY WE WILL KEEP PLAYING ON THEM SO WHAT CAN BE DONE IF THEY ARE RIGGED YOUR TOUGHTS ?????

LOVE LIFE PLAY TO WIN

StatueKid22 · Dec 9, 2008

Proof that the sites don't cheat, players just take bad beats and tell stories about it...stories become rumors...etc....

brianvoytek · Dec 9, 2008

I think the whole "rigged" is just people mad. Look at it like this, If it was "rigged" why continue to play? Everyone gets bad beats EVERYONE. It happens live and online. It's a part of the game. Figuring out the odds and what hits when and % this and % that doesnt mean if its rigged or not.

ITS POKER PEOPLE. It's a game.

The reason there's more bad beats online because we see more hands per hour. Thats the reason. It's not "rigged".

I hate A/A, give me K/K anyday.

GL to all on the felt.

haystack · Dec 9, 2008

so ithink the point has been clearly made that you don't get these big hands any more than normal and that nothing is rigged

pokerpro11 · Dec 9, 2008

I think i get AA a lot more than usual.. but I lose with it most of the time anyways

needledick83 · Dec 10, 2008

I think seeing the statistics is awesome. It makes me want to start tracking my hands. My friend and I were just discussing this very point the other day.

blankoblanco · Dec 10, 2008

jnn112002 said:
Yea im tired of full tilt being rigged plus i know plenty of F***ing cheaters that use hacking software to win.

no. you don't. moron

eNTy · Dec 10, 2008

I dno if we're still doing this but after about 2 months of tracking my data during ring play these are my numbers.

Pokerstars
Hands: 21,523
AA: 109
Expected: 97
A little over but I'll take it imo if my math is correct.

Everest
Hands: 17,549
AA: 90
Expected: 79

Total
Hands: 39079
AA: 175.87
Expected: 175.86

BULLZEYE !

LvilleSlugr · Dec 10, 2008

Thanks guys, this seals the deal for me, the sites do not rig their games.

Rigged: The AA test

pokerman125x

Rising Star

MrSwissCheese

Rock Star

Merlin50

Rising Star

Craig21

Rising Star

MrSwissCheese

Rock Star

WCFields

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WCFields

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MrSwissCheese

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MrSwissCheese

Rock Star

TrapStar

Enthusiast

brett987

Enthusiast

Checkyoself1

Rising Star

Passion_play

Rock Star

colquhounx

Enthusiast

Knives412

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jnn112002

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paddythejack

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StatueKid22

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brianvoytek

Visionary

haystack

Rock Star

pokerpro11

Rising Star

needledick83

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blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode

eNTy

Legend

LvilleSlugr

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