Rigged: The AA test

hands dealt: 15922

AA: 77

The math specks for itself . I have found that when someone yells RIGGED they played the hand wrong . I know ...I do it all the time ...LOL

...so have we come to a conclusion? I need to know if poker is rigged or not before I decide if I'm going to keep playing online poker in the new year.

Aces are 75%+ against any hand heads up, 80%+ against most and ~90% against an avg hand, even better against Ax. They are still around 50% to win even with a few other ppl to the flop. Aces suck when you slowplay and get allin only when someone hits a monster.

is there a way to tell if its rigged when any two cards in your hand reach a flop..at this point your odds at winnig vs. the % of hands that lose??cause i think i get BADBEAT way to often and how much does it cost for PT?

wat

jnn112002 said:

Yea im tired of full tilt being rigged plus i know plenty of F***ing cheaters that use hacking software to win.

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Besides the stupid comment about sites being rigged... poker sites are some of the most secure sites there are, and they should be with hundreds of millions in revenue and millions of players... I'd be shocked into insanity (and so will everyone else) if you gave credible proof that people have hacked poker sites. There's a lot more to "hacking" than you might think.

- A CS student

Replay to Thread

I can't give you any techinal statistics on poker sites, but I know this from logic. And also from experience.

The first time I want to Reno, Nevada, I actually saw a black jack dealer fumble a second card deal. He was bad! But, this was an teenie low end scum hole of a casino. You would never see this crap at a high end casino, because they have players standing in line to give them their $.

So, the logic behind this is if some scummy low end poker sites wanted to try to cheat, they could. But here is the big queastion:

Why would a million dollar business like Poker Stars bother to cheat. They dont have to. Why would they risk it all to increase their gross by .01%?(Duh!)

Site: Pokerstars
Number of ring hands: 31,216
Dealt AA: 137
Expected: 141
I am dealt AA: 1/227.85 hands

Why would a million dollar business like Poker Stars bother to cheat. They dont have to. Why would they risk it all to increase their gross by .01%?(Duh!)

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Well said. Its just hard to convince some people that its not in a sites interest to rig it.

You can not see at how many aces you get if online poker is rigged it begins after you get dealt AA and how many you lose them in unbelievible ways to hands that cannot be played unless you you know something and in the higher limits such dumb calls aren't made that much so you gotta find another way......

Agreed. It's not about how often you get AA cracked or how often 77 beats QQ.

It's about odds defying suckouts at an insane rate. Suckouts should follow the odds that have been calculated to a large extent. Sure, some nights it will happen more often than others, but we're talking about 10% or less odds against 90% odds hands going up to maybe 70/30.

When you're playing TIGHT, night after night and the odds are more like 80/20 against your excellent hands even AFTER the flop hits you well, somethings very, very wrong. When you can go 20 tournaments without winning an all in when you're playing nothing but AQ or better, and getting called with J8os all night, something is very very wrong.

The real irony is that you'll cruise along making money, hitting the money night after night, then someone flips a switch and your old routine of tight/aggressive just simply won't do the job. Lasts 3 or 4 days, then back to normal.

It's truly a joke on us. And I have no idea how some of them make money. I found a few players that have made tens of thousands on PS so I follow them around a bit and sit at their tables. They play the same poker I play, they just don't get sucked out on nearly as much.

2012 said:

It's about odds defying suckouts at an insane rate. Suckouts should follow the odds that have been calculated to a large extent. Sure, some nights it will happen more often than others, but we're talking about 10% or less odds against 90% odds hands going up to maybe 70/30.

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no. there have been numerous studies of hundreds of thousands (and millions) of hands, actual legitimate studies that show the percentages are as they should be over the long-term

frankly, you'd have to be incredibly naive to thinks that this wouldn't have come out by now if it were the truth, given the millions of people who play, given all the data devices that can record every hand

YOU HAVE ALL THE TOOLS AT YOUR DISPOSAL TO PROVE IT'S RIGGED. YET NOT ONE SINGLE PERSON OUT OF MILLIONS HAS DONE SO, OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL YEARS. I WONDER WHY THE **** THAT COULD BE

let's see, am i going to trust statistically analyzed databases of thousands upon thousands of hands, or the selective memory of someone who is probably not good at poker. you don't understand variance and how harsh it is when speaking in terms of small quantities of hands. your idea of a lot of hands is in actuality an incredibly laughably small number of hands in terms of statistics

This test isn't what the skeptics are looking for.

Many claim that the action is being forced. A good adddition to this test would be to find out the number of times your aces faced KK.

Many claim that the action is being forced. A good addition to this test would be to find out the number of times your aces faced KK.

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Whats the point?

The people who dont believe its rigged will have yet another statistic that proves it isnt rigged.

The people who believe its rigged will continue their claim and ignore the AA vs K statistic, just as they ignore the statistics that we already have.

The problem that we face with this type of thread is that it is logically impossible to prove a negative. In layman's terms.. we can never PROVE that poker isn't rigged because you cannot PROVE the non-existence of of a non-event (its mathematically impossible).

However you can prove the existence of an event. So all we can do is pick a predicted statistic and, i.e. the AA vs KK statistic and then compare it to a large sample of date.

The people who say it is rigged are do not seem to be bound by such logic. All they need do is design a test or predict a statistic and then obtain a large sample of data to test the prediction.

To date, no such test has indicated that online poker is rigged.

So once again we go round and round.. those who believe it is rigged will continue to do so, those who dont will not.

Only one anomaly springs to mind. Why are the those who believe online poker is rigged willing to play it? I do not believe it is rigged and therefore play with peace of mind. I would not play any game I thought was rigged.

This probably accounts for the lack of evidence (of poker being rigged) presented by those who believ it is rigged. It not simply complacenty on their part! If you think it through, they believe it is rigged and still play, therefore if it were proved to be rigged, their belief would simply be confirmed.. and therefore they would still play!

So now you have to ask yourself, what is the point of entering into this debate?

As its logically impossible to prove a negative, those believe poker is not rigged can never prove the fact that it isnt rigged.

As many of those who believe it is rigged, indeed play online poker, evidence either way will not alter their actions. Therefore they will never be sufficiently motivated to go out and prove what they know to be true.

People, People, People,
Poker Happens!! Anybody see the FTP Gus Hansen commercial?? SOmetimes you do everything right, hit the flop over and over again, make good reads and STILL it's not enough. POKER HAPPENS. The real stat question is "When a player hits BIG in a tourney or a cash game, and I mean BIG, what are the odds he/she will BLOW the money and not practice GOOD bankroll MANAGEMENT"?????

Stu_Ungar said:

Whats the point?

The people who dont believe its rigged will have yet another statistic that proves it isnt rigged.

The people who believe its rigged will continue their claim and ignore the AA vs K statistic, just as they ignore the statistics that we already have.

The problem that we face with this type of thread is that it is logically impossible to prove a negative. In layman's terms.. we can never PROVE that poker isn't rigged because you cannot PROVE the non-existence of of a non-event (its mathematically impossible).

However you can prove the existence of an event. So all we can do is pick a predicted statistic and, i.e. the AA vs KK statistic and then compare it to a large sample of date.

The people who say it is rigged are do not seem to be bound by such logic. All they need do is design a test or predict a statistic and then obtain a large sample of data to test the prediction.

To date, no such test has indicated that online poker is rigged.

So once again we go round and round.. those who believe it is rigged will continue to do so, those who dont will not.

Only one anomaly springs to mind. Why are the those who believe online poker is rigged willing to play it? I do not believe it is rigged and therefore play with peace of mind. I would not play any game I thought was rigged.

This probably accounts for the lack of evidence (of poker being rigged) presented by those who believ it is rigged. It not simply complacenty on their part! If you think it through, they believe it is rigged and still play, therefore if it were proved to be rigged, their belief would simply be confirmed.. and therefore they would still play!

So now you have to ask yourself, what is the point of entering into this debate?

As its logically impossible to prove a negative, those believe poker is not rigged can never prove the fact that it isnt rigged.

As many of those who believe it is rigged, indeed play online poker, evidence either way will not alter their actions. Therefore they will never be sufficiently motivated to go out and prove what they know to be true.

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They play "rigged poker" because they can still win. I never said anything about bad beat occurrence. I'm talking about sites increasing the size and frequency of rakes with coolers.

Hi everybody,

Where I can find this stats in Poker Stars and Full tilt ???

Regards

FTE

It's good that someone finally put up the numbers to prove that it is not rigged, bad beats happen to everyone, so just deal with it.

What a great thread... now to me the idea of a site rigging hands makes no economic sense to me because what they are risking is losing there whole business to make some extra money... because once their credibility is ruined then they will lose business. This is why casinos in Las Vegas don't cheat anymore - (they did early on)- it's just bad business...

combuboom said:

no. there have been numerous studies of hundreds of thousands (and millions) of hands, actual legitimate studies that show the percentages are as they should be over the long-term

frankly, you'd have to be incredibly naive to thinks that this wouldn't have come out by now if it were the truth, given the millions of people who play, given all the data devices that can record every hand

YOU HAVE ALL THE TOOLS AT YOUR DISPOSAL TO PROVE IT'S RIGGED. YET NOT ONE SINGLE PERSON OUT OF MILLIONS HAS DONE SO, OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL YEARS. I WONDER WHY THE **** THAT COULD BE

let's see, am i going to trust statistically analyzed databases of thousands upon thousands of hands, or the selective memory of someone who is probably not good at poker. you don't understand variance and how harsh it is when speaking in terms of small quantities of hands. your idea of a lot of hands is in actuality an incredibly laughably small number of hands in terms of statistics

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Online poker isn't rigged. It's managed.


And wake up and smell the coffee. You don't have access to what really means anything, the software.


YouTube - Why is the Rum Gone? - Remix

Online poker isn't rigged. It's managed.


And wake up and smell the coffee. You don't have access to what really means anything, the software.

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Data supporting the argument that online poker is not rigged has been submitted in the form of the AA test.

Would people who believe it is rigged please provide data showing that it is rigged.

This thread is now 625 post long, and as of yet there is no evidence or data which proves that it is rigged.

There is hear-say and opinion and well thought out conspiracies.. but as for proof or evidence; there is none.

They play "rigged poker" because they can still win. I never said anything about bad beat occurrence. I'm talking about sites increasing the size and frequency of rakes with coolers.

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Please provide proof or evidence to back up your statement

My thoughts

I been playing online poker 4 or 5 years now .I do not believe its rigged. I do wonder sometimes ,like when i saw Wade[ from HR] go all in with 39 off suit, aginst AA ,KK.He hit quad nines. To me that was such bs. Although I have seen hands that makes me wonder,over all , not rigged.

well... i don't think sites are "rigged", but there IS something fishy about the poker software. It's something wrong with the algorithyms. Maybe there's not enough randomization as there should be. It should be infinite randomization. I've been dealt AA and ended up with AAAA by the river twice in the same day on pokerstars. What are the odds of that with a real deck? Many people thinks it's rigged, many, many, many people. It may not be rigged on purpose, but i doubt all the thousands of people who "sense" that something is... questionable... with online gaming are all just imagining it.

Stu_Ungar said:

Data supporting the argument that online poker is not rigged has been submitted in the form of the AA test.

Would people who believe it is rigged please provide data showing that it is rigged.

This thread is now 625 post long, and as of yet there is no evidence or data which proves that it is rigged.

There is hear-say and opinion and well thought out conspiracies.. but as for proof or evidence; there is none.

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Like I said it's not rigged it's managed. The sites themselves state that they query their data to ensure randomness. Think about it. That means that they make adjustments and tweak things.

Like I said it's not rigged it's managed. The sites themselves state that they query their data to ensure randomness. Think about it. That means that they make adjustments and tweak things.

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Why does that imply that adjustments or tweaks are being made?

If changes were made to cards being delt then that would, for the purposes of this discussion, be classed as rigging.

Are you able to show any proof that adjustments are actually made?

Unless someone has a degree from MIT or something and can prove something like this i don't know how anybody would be able to prove "rigging" or anything else.