Rigged: The AA test

eNTy · Dec 11, 2008

hacklimit said:
Gee, I am really happy this thread has been revived ... NOT!!

Then why are you posting in it ?

Oh wait, less that 50 posts ? I guess I answered my own question..

MDTed · Dec 14, 2008

I don't care what the math on this says.

AA vs KK happens far more often online than in live table games.

I'm not a big player, I'm lucky to do 200 hands a day and that's all the sites put together. However I see AA vs KK almost every day it seems. It's just not logical that this is all chance.

We play a home game every week where we play hundreds of hands and so far, not once have we seen the dreaded AA vs KK.

Sure you can look up the times you got KK or AA but then look at those results and see how many times your KK was against an AA and vice versa.

Those of you with millions of hands to look at, yours or others you have, should do some serious research on the random number generator the sites use, I'm pretty sure you'd find a pattern. There is no truly random number generator.

belladonna05 · Dec 14, 2008

MDTed said:
I don't care what the math on this says.

AA vs KK happens far more often online than in live table games.

I'm not a big player, I'm lucky to do 200 hands a day and that's all the sites put together. However I see AA vs KK almost every day it seems. It's just not logical that this is all chance.

We play a home game every week where we play hundreds of hands and so far, not once have we seen the dreaded AA vs KK.

Sure you can look up the times you got KK or AA but then look at those results and see how many times your KK was against an AA and vice versa.

Those of you with millions of hands to look at, yours or others you have, should do some serious research on the random number generator the sites use, I'm pretty sure you'd find a pattern. There is no truly random number generator.

I don't have the numbers for my live play, but I have seen aa v kk a number of times while playing live. Wish I could say I wasn't involved in said hands either.

eNTy · Dec 14, 2008

It's probable that you see AA vs KK more often because both AA and KK are looking to stack preflop.

That way you see a lot more AA v KK hands than you do AA v 77 for instance, because people will generally not stack off with 77, but will with KK.

evilbughead · Dec 16, 2008

No end to that debate

It seems that many people do not realize about the rake system is that no matter how big the pot they never take more then 5% , yes i do understand that the bigger the pot the more they make but it's always 5%. I doubt they would want to risk all the millions the make a week/month on making pots bigger if anything they would want you to play turbo so they could make much more but that's my 2 cents.

chrisdione · Dec 16, 2008

I would like to use this to my advantage but I tend to play too many tables and on too many sites at the same time. Makes it very hard for me to keep track of when I am dealt AA or KK. Guess I am too much of a poker addict. LOL

GotaLovePoke · Dec 16, 2008

eNTy said:
I dno if we're still doing this but after about 2 months of tracking my data during ring play these are my numbers.

Pokerstars
Hands: 21,523
AA: 109
Expected: 97
A little over but I'll take it imo if my math is correct.

Everest
Hands: 17,549
AA: 90
Expected: 79

Total
Hands: 39079
AA: 175.87
Expected: 175.86

BULLZEYE !

90 + 109 = 199....

unlucky79 · Dec 16, 2008

Good post!!! I think though if my unlucky self did the math my win rate with aces would be below 50% I swear I simply havce the worse luck ever for an Irish Fellow!!! Have fun on the felts...

eNTy · Dec 16, 2008

GotaLovePoke said:
90 + 109 = 199....

Oops

I Eat Pjs · Dec 16, 2008

yep

In one ring game one day I had AA 4 times and others at the table had, it and did get busted, by something lower... just bullshit

jolubman · Dec 16, 2008

I liked the test you performed and it says it all. You are getting near the average. If you had a larger sample size you'd come even closer to the true average.

unlucky79 · Dec 16, 2008

MDTed said:
I don't care what the math on this says.

AA vs KK happens far more often online than in live table games.

I'm not a big player, I'm lucky to do 200 hands a day and that's all the sites put together. However I see AA vs KK almost every day it seems. It's just not logical that this is all chance.

We play a home game every week where we play hundreds of hands and so far, not once have we seen the dreaded AA vs KK.

Sure you can look up the times you got KK or AA but then look at those results and see how many times your KK was against an AA and vice versa.

Those of you with millions of hands to look at, yours or others you have, should do some serious research on the random number generator the sites use, I'm pretty sure you'd find a pattern. There is no truly random number generator.

Just got back from Atlantic City and I was in a 1/2 ring game at the hilton. Lost 2 times holding cowboys against bullets in a matter of 2 hrs playtime. trust me it happens live also. Either that or Im just very unlucky at times!!!:icon_sant

TheSkeptic · Dec 16, 2008

MrSwissCheese said:
The whole concept of a poker site (or a real casino) rigging anything is just outlandish to me. They will make money hand over fist following the rules and not rigging anything.

NO NO NO NO NO!

No they won't, no more than a slot machine will make money hand over fist if IT plays by the rules.

If they play by the rules, using perfect random cards then all that happens is the good solid experienced poker players cream all the money and the beginners, newcomers, and inexperienced players just lose lose lose and that means they just STOP PLAYING. When people stop playing there are no deposits and NO RAKE !

It's pretty damn simple to see!

The ONLY way to make money hand over fist is to bend the rules, keep all the people winning every now and then (even when their rag hands should lose) and just keep the money moving between all players and all the time they cream off the rake and everyone keeps making deposits to feed this crooked monster of a system.

It absoluetly IS NOT POKER ! It's a controlled system of chance presented in a poker format. These companies have $Billions to lose if they do not rig the system. They don't make all the HHs available to you for that very reason. In the end they will get found out but not before 1000s of innocent people have lost a great deal of money.

The analysis of AA hands is an exercise in futility.

Kwolff · Dec 17, 2008

It is just human nature to remember the bad beats in the game. You hardly ever remember when you got out on someone when you should not have.

As for the rigged argument. I can see people maybe saying that online tournaments are somewhat setup to run a bit faster (players getting knocked out with set up hands preflop) to get the money rotating faster which in turn leads to more buy ins etc being paid back to the site. Also from personal point can say I have seen the runs that others said they have had when they put money in only to go bad the next day playing the same style. But in general I feel thats online poker.

MrSwissCheese · Dec 17, 2008

My, my, my. . . where should I start. . .

TheSkeptic said:
NO NO NO NO NO!

No they won't, no more than a slot machine will make money hand over fist if IT plays by the rules.

Do you have any idea how a slot machine works? A slot machine is programmed to pay out a certain level of money taken in (90%, 95%, 105%, etc.). Collectively, the casino will pay out a very large portion of the slot take in prizes. I know the Missouri Gaming Commission publishes these numbers as required by law, I don't know if other states are the same way. For instance, November 2008, Harrah's St. Louis had a Slot Hold percentage of 8.8%, meaning they paid out 91.2% of all the money they took in in slots (which for the record was about $21.5 million). So the slot machines collectively did their duty pulling in just shy of $1.9 million last month. The reports are quite fascinating for anyone wanting to look at them - you will need Excel or a viewer to open them, they're available on the MGC website at www.mgc.dps.mo.gov. Fact is that as long as the slots are on the up and up (in other words they haven't been programmed incorrectly), they will rake in money hand over fist because they're programmed to pay out less than they take in.

Poker, on the other hand, is the only game where they house isn't playing. So the house makes money two ways. First is the rake and then by taking a percentage of an optional "bad beat" jackpot (I've only seen these in brick and mortar casinos, not online - the ones offered online will pay out a bad beat jackpot, but the players don't voluntarily contribute to it). The only way that a casino can make more money at poker is to host more raked hands - whether it's online or live. online casinos do have one more way to make money - they earn intrest on the millions of dollars of the players money that they hold. If you make a $100 deposit, it goes directly into THEIR banks, where they earn intrest on it until you cash out.

TheSkeptic said:
If they play by the rules, using perfect random cards then all that happens is the good solid experienced poker players cream all the money and the beginners, newcomers, and inexperienced players just lose lose lose and that means they just STOP PLAYING. When people stop playing there are no deposits and NO RAKE !

It's pretty damn simple to see!

When beginners, newcomers, and inexperienced players make a deposit and lose, lose, lose, they may stop playing, but the money they put into the system STAYS. It goes to a more experienced player that will continue to play and contribute ring and tournament rake. There is only one way for money to enter the system - players deposit. There are only two ways for money to exit the system - players cash out and the casino takes it's rake (Although, most casinos will give back some of the rake in the form of freerolls and guaranteed money tournaments). So your statement about no deposits and no rake only makes sense if EVERYONE (including the good experienced players) stop playing.

TheSkeptic said:
The ONLY way to make money hand over fist is to bend the rules, keep all the people winning every now and then (even when their rag hands should lose) and just keep the money moving between all players and all the time they cream off the rake and everyone keeps making deposits to feed this crooked monster of a system.

Let's make an assumption that you're correct - the only way a casino can make money hand over fist is by cheating. By your statement, Brick & Mortar casino's can't cheat (since the whole basis for your argument is that the online games don't work the same way as they do at a live game). Why the hell would a brick and mortar casino even have a poker room if they're not making money hand over fist in a legitimate way? As we stated before a single casino in a MINOR market (Harrah's in St. Louis) pulled in $1.9 MILLION in a single month on slots alone. Wouldn't it be better if they allocated the poker room square footage to cash cow slots? The answer is THEY DID. I grand opened Harrah's in St. Louis in 1997 when they had the biggest poker room in the St. Louis market. Within a year or two, they closed the poker room down and filled the area with slots for several years because the poker tables were empty. The re-launched the poker rooms during the big boom in 2002. Why? Because they could make more money off the poker tables than the additional slot machines.

TheSkeptic said:
It absoluetly IS NOT POKER ! It's a controlled system of chance presented in a poker format. These companies have $Billions to lose if they do not rig the system. They don't make all the HHs available to you for that very reason. In the end they will get found out but not before 1000s of innocent people have lost a great deal of money.

I can only say that since right now you have 40 posts, you're actually interested in getting to be part of the poker community and the freerolls here at CardsChat. You do realize that we play the freerolls with the same flawed not-really-poker software that you're describing, right?

I'm going to step aside here and say I'm not a professional counselor, but I really believe that you ought to seek some help if you are spending too much money at the tables. I'm not saying that you have a problem, but I can only say that if you honestly believe what you have just said - that online poker is not really poker, but rather a giant lottery that is rigged in favor of the have-nots, yet you still spend money on it, you ought to seek help.

As far as the hand histories go, I'm not 100% certain (but pretty damn close to it), but I don't recall seeing a brick and mortar casino offer complete and total hand histories to their patrons. If the brick and mortar casinos aren't required to do so, then why should an online casino do it?

TheSkeptic said:
The analysis of AA hands is an exercise in futility.

You're right - it is an excersize in futility - not because it isn't worthwhile, but there's no way for just Cardschat players to collect enough data to be significant. Even at 100 hands an hour, it will take tens of thousands of hours to collect data that has any significance.

One thing that you have to remember, AA vs. AA will still LOSE 2% of of the time. It will tie 96% of the time, but each of you have two different suits which will lead to flushes.

If you're so confident that the poker tables are rigged, I would be willing to play my two Aces against any two cards of your choice. AA vs. KK, AA vs. 72, I don't care. If we could find a place that would deal us 1,000 hands at whatever stakes you choose, I'd play that in a heartbeat. I'd even be willing to spot you 100 wins. Fact is that I will be 78-85% favorite depending on the two cards you choose, and I'd be crazy not to take those odds. Let me know if you find a place that will let us do that.

MrSwissCheese · Dec 17, 2008

breadgy55 said:
eh i hate when idiot people claim that sites are rigged. they've no clue. dont worry about it..let em keep losin at poker

That's exactly right. The online poker being rigged statements are reserved for those who want to justify their own bad play.

Me, on the other hand, I justify my bad plays because I suck. But in the past several months that I've been here, I've found that I've been sucking a lot less

.

WCFields · Dec 21, 2008

MrSwissCheese said:
My, my, my. . . where should I start. . .

Do you have any idea how a slot machine works? A slot machine is programmed to pay out a certain level of money taken in (90%, 95%, 105%, etc.). Collectively, the casino will pay out a very large portion of the slot take in prizes. I know the Missouri Gaming Commission publishes these numbers as required by law, I don't know if other states are the same way. For instance, November 2008, Harrah's St. Louis had a Slot Hold percentage of 8.8%, meaning they paid out 91.2% of all the money they took in in slots (which for the record was about $21.5 million). So the slot machines collectively did their duty pulling in just shy of $1.9 million last month. The reports are quite fascinating for anyone wanting to look at them - you will need Excel or a viewer to open them, they're available on the MGC website at www.mgc.dps.mo.gov. Fact is that as long as the slots are on the up and up (in other words they haven't been programmed incorrectly), they will rake in money hand over fist because they're programmed to pay out less than they take in.

Poker, on the other hand, is the only game where they house isn't playing. So the house makes money two ways. First is the rake and then by taking a percentage of an optional "bad beat" jackpot (I've only seen these in brick and mortar casinos, not online - the ones offered online will pay out a bad beat jackpot, but the players don't voluntarily contribute to it). The only way that a casino can make more money at poker is to host more raked hands - whether it's online or live. Online casinos do have one more way to make money - they earn intrest on the millions of dollars of the players money that they hold. If you make a $100 deposit, it goes directly into THEIR banks, where they earn intrest on it until you cash out.

When beginners, newcomers, and inexperienced players make a deposit and lose, lose, lose, they may stop playing, but the money they put into the system STAYS. It goes to a more experienced player that will continue to play and contribute ring and tournament rake. There is only one way for money to enter the system - players deposit. There are only two ways for money to exit the system - players cash out and the casino takes it's rake (Although, most casinos will give back some of the rake in the form of freerolls and guaranteed money tournaments). So your statement about no deposits and no rake only makes sense if EVERYONE (including the good experienced players) stop playing.

Let's make an assumption that you're correct - the only way a casino can make money hand over fist is by cheating. By your statement, Brick & Mortar casino's can't cheat (since the whole basis for your argument is that the online games don't work the same way as they do at a live game). Why the hell would a brick and mortar casino even have a poker room if they're not making money hand over fist in a legitimate way? As we stated before a single casino in a MINOR market (Harrah's in St. Louis) pulled in $1.9 MILLION in a single month on slots alone. Wouldn't it be better if they allocated the poker room square footage to cash cow slots? The answer is THEY DID. I grand opened Harrah's in St. Louis in 1997 when they had the biggest poker room in the St. Louis market. Within a year or two, they closed the poker room down and filled the area with slots for several years because the poker tables were empty. The re-launched the poker rooms during the big boom in 2002. Why? Because they could make more money off the poker tables than the additional slot machines.

I can only say that since right now you have 40 posts, you're actually interested in getting to be part of the poker community and the freerolls here at CardsChat. You do realize that we play the freerolls with the same flawed not-really-poker software that you're describing, right?

I'm going to step aside here and say I'm not a professional counselor, but I really believe that you ought to seek some help if you are spending too much money at the tables. I'm not saying that you have a problem, but I can only say that if you honestly believe what you have just said - that online poker is not really poker, but rather a giant lottery that is rigged in favor of the have-nots, yet you still spend money on it, you ought to seek help.

As far as the hand histories go, I'm not 100% certain (but pretty damn close to it), but I don't recall seeing a brick and mortar casino offer complete and total hand histories to their patrons. If the brick and mortar casinos aren't required to do so, then why should an online casino do it?

You're right - it is an excersize in futility - not because it isn't worthwhile, but there's no way for just Cardschat players to collect enough data to be significant. Even at 100 hands an hour, it will take tens of thousands of hours to collect data that has any significance.

One thing that you have to remember, AA vs. AA will still LOSE 2% of of the time. It will tie 96% of the time, but each of you have two different suits which will lead to flushes.

If you're so confident that the poker tables are rigged, I would be willing to play my two Aces against any two cards of your choice. AA vs. KK, AA vs. 72, I don't care. If we could find a place that would deal us 1,000 hands at whatever stakes you choose, I'd play that in a heartbeat. I'd even be willing to spot you 100 wins. Fact is that I will be 78-85% favorite depending on the two cards you choose, and I'd be crazy not to take those odds. Let me know if you find a place that will let us do that.

You seem to miss the point of the software programming aspect. Online poker and casino poker is profitable because of the rake and entry fees. The more tournaments entered, fees, and hands played, rakes, the more profit.

If six players play ring game equally well the rake will eventually absorb each players stack. That's the broad perspective that sites and casinos use to justify hosting poker. Not deposits. The deposits don't belong to them. They are a means to an end. If they keep even the smallest stakes player's losses to a minimum that player will shell out what he considers recreational costs. Think of it as going to a movie every Saturday night. No much of an expense, eh? $20? $80 a month.

It behooves the hosts to prevent, in most instances, the "correct play" from winning as often as the "odds" would dictate. Hence proclaiming random shuffles is fractious in that random itself doesn't really provide any definition of results.

mooleyjones · Dec 21, 2008

Yes, correct play, which in some circustances is just almost impossible with all the people t hat are playing online poker today......When u play semi correctly and make a big raise with the proper cards they call u........and call u and call u and then river out. The thing with online poker is u can't see the other guy, or really hear him/her. You can say anything on the puter but who knows????? U can think someone is thinking but in fact it might be a puter glitch or something.
This discussion can go on and on, and what kills me is when someone looses and get taken out, alot of time the comment is....."this site is rigged" hahaha

Keygreazy · Dec 21, 2008

How do you find your total statistics, I would like to know. Also , a very good read....thanks!

Shadow28Charlie · Dec 22, 2008

I can tell you I am on over 400 hands with no AA

One9Design · Dec 23, 2008

Here's the problem: folks remember their beats more than their wins. The times you have gotten beaten with AA stand out more in your mind (and emotions) than the times you have won with them.

The numbers don't lie. We just feel like they do.

sweetestdream · Dec 24, 2008

wow... its pretty scary when ya think about it

isn't true that pocket aces only win 33 % of the time?

walkerbear · Dec 25, 2008

I am using UltimateBet, how do I load the database info so I can post the same info?

WCFields · Dec 25, 2008

sweetestdream said:
wow... its pretty scary when ya think about it isn't true that pocket aces only win 33 % of the time?

Anyone know what the odds are when you go all in preflop with aces?

silverslugger33 · Dec 26, 2008

WCFields said:
Anyone know what the odds are when you go all in preflop with aces?

We need far more info than that. How many callers? What hands to the callers have?

Rigged: The AA test

eNTy

Legend

MDTed

Legend

belladonna05

School of nightshade

eNTy

Legend

evilbughead

Enthusiast

chrisdione

Enthusiast

GotaLovePoke

Rock Star

unlucky79

Rock Star

eNTy

Legend

I Eat Pjs

Rising Star

jolubman

Visionary

unlucky79

Rock Star

TheSkeptic

Rock Star

Kwolff

Enthusiast

MrSwissCheese

Rock Star

MrSwissCheese

Rock Star

WCFields

Rock Star

mooleyjones

Rising Star

Keygreazy

Rising Star

Shadow28Charlie

Enthusiast

One9Design

Enthusiast

sweetestdream

Rock Star

walkerbear

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WCFields

Rock Star

silverslugger33

Rock Star

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