Back to our discussion about value betting the river bigger.
Most of you guys seriously give your opponents WAY WAY WAY WAY too much credit. Every time you start thinking that your opponents go through the same thought process as you, please go read the "Online poker is rigged" thread to see how most of your opponents are going to be thinking about poker.
99% of people you face in the micros are not going to be thinking about ranges, or what certain lines mean, or figure out what different bet sizes mean. They go "I haz pair? I call" and that's the extent of it. The vast majority of the time, it will not matter if you bet 1/2pot, 2/3 pot, or 1.5x pot. If they are going to call 1/2pot, they probably would have called at least a full pot bet.
River Value > Turn Value > Flop value. Why? Well because if you miss value on the flop, you have two streets to make up for it. So making your flop bets smaller is ok, because even if you miss some value, you can make it up on later streets with larger bets. Alternatively, missing value on the river is a disaster.