Poker Math: Understanding Expected Value in Online Poker

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What is Expected Value (EV)?
In essence, “expected value” is a concept used to describe the average outcome of a given scenario that hinges on an uncertain probabilistic event.

We use expected value to determine if a move or play is the correct one by balancing risk versus what we get in return (the reward).

Is there an Expected Value formula?
Oh you bet. And we break it all down for you in our guide: Expected Value Explained: Understanding EV in Online Poker

We cover scenarios and formulas for limit and no-limit hold'em, as well as tips for applying EV in real-time poker situations.

Do you make it a practice to apply Expected Value to your game?
 
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Poker value

For my logical thinking i've got this simple math, if i am playing against one opponent i use this logic, and my plan is to go on until i can make a good analysis on when to bet. I will make a guideline post with future discoveries.😎




>80% = AA,KK; >70% = QQ,JJ,TT,99; >65% = 88,AK's,77,AQ's; >60% = AK,AJ's,AT's,AQ,77,AJ,KQ's,AT,A9's,KJ's,KQ,A8's,KT's
 
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Hi. I just had a question regarding the explanation of EV.




Total Combinations = 55​




P(call)

=

36/55

=

0.6545​


P(call)

=

19/55

=

0.3455​



EV(bet) = $2.50 + $41.25 + $37.50​



EV(bet) = $76.25​
​

Why do we use
$​
2.50 to do the calculation and where does this come from?
 
with math I have a very tight, but ruined flashpro it turns out I think 80 percent. expectations that will reach, makes us spend a lot of chips. it makes me think of a coin with three sides.
 
Interesting stuff. This shows why it's so unfair to use poker tracker because with large enough hand history sample against particular player it can show exact ev to every situation automatically.
 
oriole said:
Interesting stuff. This shows why it's so unfair to use poker tracker because with large enough hand history sample against particular player it can show exact ev to every situation automatically.
Click to expand...


Does that mean it's also unfair to manually track hands? Yes the software makes it easier but it's essentially the same thing. If you were watching all the players very closely you would be able to get to point where you know how player reacts in a given spot and you could fine the most +EV play. No one who is decent in poker is going through and playing a hand as if no other hand has happened before it so whether you use a HUD or not you're still going to be doing the same thing that's why you watch other players and take notes. All the HUD does is pay better attention and do the math for you but it never tells you "This is the most plus EV play do this and only this right now", the player still has to take the information and figure out how to use it.
 
WOW , this is way to much for me to do while playing ! If I am just working on math for something like my income taxes , or Wayyyy back when I was in school - then I would be able to do it .
But to sit and figure this out during my PLAY Time !!! ???
I do try to keep track of the cards coming out , and make an educated guess as to what the odds are if other have them in their hand or if they will be dealt out , but to sit there and try to do all those calculations for all of the hands I play ???
Thanks , but No Thanks!

Math was never a strong point for me , I can figure out problems - abeit slower then most , but I can and do figure out the right answer - but to do this while it is my play time , this would no longer be a fun game for me !
 
Great article, I changed my concepts regarding the expectation of value, as I am a beginner in poker I have much to learn😀
 
thatguy6793 said:
Does that mean it's also unfair to manually track hands? Yes the software makes it easier but it's essentially the same thing. If you were watching all the players very closely you would be able to get to point where you know how player reacts in a given spot and you could fine the most +EV play. No one who is decent in poker is going through and playing a hand as if no other hand has happened before it so whether you use a HUD or not you're still going to be doing the same thing that's why you watch other players and take notes. All the HUD does is pay better attention and do the math for you but it never tells you "This is the most plus EV play do this and only this right now", the player still has to take the information and figure out how to use it.
Click to expand...


If two players are the same skill level, but one will have a database with all of the hands that you have played together and is able to see how often player x checks/bets/raises/folds on every street then what will be the result?
 
oriole said:
If two players are the same skill level, but one will have a database with all of the hands that you have played together and is able to see how often player x checks/bets/raises/folds on every street then what will be the result?
Click to expand...


You can get that with or without the database, all you have to do is pay attention when you play against someone
 
thatguy6793 said:
You can get that with or without the database, all you have to do is pay attention when you play against someone
Click to expand...


You can remember what hundreds of opponents did during thousands of hand history? You're some kind of genius then...
 
oriole said:
You can remember what hundreds of opponents did during thousands of hand history? You're some kind of genius then...
Click to expand...


It's called taking notes? There's nothing stopping you from adding notes to a player on a poker client. I really don't appreciate the attack given that I just said something different from what you did, I simply gave an opinion.
 
This is an essential reasoning for anyone who is involved in the betting world, as well as being an important process for making the right decisions. And doing a good banking management and playing within the limit is quite possible to achieve success in the long term.
 
Frankly I'm not very good at math of poker. I'm more of a practitioner and I've got a lot of bumps in this field. Maybe I'll seem stupid but I had to read the article more than once to finally get to the bottom of it. More mathematics in subsequent articles, a modest request.
 
+1
EV can change a lot of our decisions, on the tables and in life.
 
Excellent article, maybe the best I've read so far, congratulations to the person who wrote it.
In poker you have to make decisions that benefit us in the long term.
 
Very good item !!

I have studied with the Brazilian community and learned a lot. This material has the effect of opening the head of a lot of player and leave more excited the freerols.
But it is no use to work with deductions and not apply concepts, theories and calculations in practice.
Nothing will happen if you do not do what you expect.
 
using a tracker gives much guidance if you have a sufficient amount of hands, but paying more attention to your opponents will reap rewards more then doing a calculation and missing a player's habits
With online poker and the limited time we have to decide, i'm not a big fan of formulas but i do love math
In live games i would say it is a must Asset
 
I noticed in the article, the 30/70 coin flip should have been negative.
I have found that running different hand vs hand, and hand vs Range% for various situations on equity calculators gives a general idea of where a hand stands.
Remembering a few percentages, converting bets and pots into big blinds, and a couple conversions, one could get a general feeling what their hand is worth.
 
TY for a great article! I jutt it's very importaint to understand how cardsc work agains each other. Often seomthing like 44 < 78s can feel like a badbeat when in reality... so TY again!

Also loved what @chicopaw said about tracker. It does help if not exploit your ops but to understand and find your leaks definitely.

thatguy6793 said:
"You can get that with or without the database, all you have to do is pay attention when you play against someone"
Click to expand...
- maybe, but then there is GTO and players actually buy (for $$) hand hisotry of other players... CC had an article about Victor Blom, if you remeber how he was beat ... 😉
"Does that mean it's also unfair to manually track hands" - yep, yes it is (IMHO) that is why some poke rooms are trying to leave tracking soft.
 
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Excellentarticle. I admit that some of the maths formulas was morr oike an impossible puzzle to me.
But I always use EV at my game. After doing this, I learned to not enter in very dominated drwas at the turn or even post floppy. This helped my game a lot.
 
Good article.

I remember reading about "Expected Value" in my first book I read about poker (Harrington's book) years ago (in 2012 as I remember).

I think that when it comes to the nanostakes, the fundamental maths is the only thing you need. And apart from that, a lot of volume. I'm not into advanced math concepts yet.🙄
 
I found this very interesting article had never stopped to think about the expected value. I had no idea how to make this article helped me a lot about the values ​​in poker now are trying to put into practice
 
An excellent article. However the practical application of it sitting at a poker table is as much use as an ash-tray on a motorbike. It is based upon an average, while in mathematics there can be an average, a mean or a median, in real life there is no such thing. As an example, there are two boys, one is five feet tall and the other is six feet tall. Their average height is five feet six inches, which neither one is. EV has been hoisted upon the poker world by faux intelligensia boosting their egos
 
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