I didn't understand anything. And moreover: I don't understand for what it is.
I remember I watched live stream where A2 tried to bluff KK on pre-flop by raising, re-raising. When KK went all in, one commentator (who's now a player) said that A2 could call, because he has pot odds. Of course, guide is not about pot odds but EV includes it.
I find EV useless since it doesn't help right card to come. Moreover: 40-60% successful players don't count it. They tell it in interviews. And logic: "I can loose, let's lose some more" doesn't impress me. But it helps to sell the books.
I remember I watched live stream where A2 tried to bluff KK on pre-flop by raising, re-raising. When KK went all in, one commentator (who's now a player) said that A2 could call, because he has pot odds. Of course, guide is not about pot odds but EV includes it.
I find EV useless since it doesn't help right card to come. Moreover: 40-60% successful players don't count it. They tell it in interviews. And logic: "I can loose, let's lose some more" doesn't impress me. But it helps to sell the books.
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The only thing I expect in poker is to lose to a BS hand. I try time and again...…..get close - like last two tables close and some 23 off suit all in hand will beat my AK or A Ten or something. Its wild - can't help but think there's some kind of software being used to get ahead.
I do have a math degree, so most of the math involved in poker is rather straightforward to me. On the other hand, as stated in the article, making these calculations on the fly is nearly impossible, unless you're the rain-man...
Most of the times I consider +EV moves and try to stay positive.
An example for a particular -EV move we often see in our CC games, especially free rolls: Blinds are 30/60, just second round, one player shoves 1500 from early position. He risks 1500 to win 90. Even if he gets called 1 out of 10 times and loses, this move is -EV.
Most of the times I consider +EV moves and try to stay positive.
An example for a particular -EV move we often see in our CC games, especially free rolls: Blinds are 30/60, just second round, one player shoves 1500 from early position. He risks 1500 to win 90. Even if he gets called 1 out of 10 times and loses, this move is -EV.
It is a maths subject and maths are one of the main factors in poker. As the game progresses the times for decision all-in or fold are more critical. EV is something we always have in mind while playing a poker game, so this analysis reveals the maths of it which is usefull to calculate and to decide our move each time.
Interesting thread, although I avoid filling my head with numbers and statistics, I only calculate the basics between gains and losses, although it would be interesting to practice it, I think it would help a lot in the handling of your banrroll, in that article there are very useful tips
expected value is of much importance to poker decisions, just as it is in other walks of life. I find it incredible that many members here say that they do not have time to or do not see the importance of making important calculations when making decisions about how to play a hand. I would ask them to consider their decisions when they buy something! Do they just pay the asking price or do they consider whether it is too high and therefore do not make the purchase? Alternatively if its a good deal, they may well pay for it, to ensure they get the deal.
I guess there are players out there that are simply considering whether they have the best hand and betting on it....rather than considering the expected value and how that may make their decision different.
I guess there are players out there that are simply considering whether they have the best hand and betting on it....rather than considering the expected value and how that may make their decision different.
I find mathematics extremely incredible in itself. Everything with abliction, that is, theories of Poker is not only for the game, but for all situations of life. EV is an extremely important concept, for someone who wants to build their poker career, you should study this concept in depth. Analyze and reanalyse your hands. Always wanting to see if in the long run the action is right soon profitable.
Excellent post, looking forward to more like this =)
Excellent post, looking forward to more like this =)
EV as explained in this article seems like a more advanced conception of equity. This needs to be studied away from the table as too complex to do these calculations in game setting. Much easier to make decision based on equity (chance of winning based on number of outs) vs. pot odds. If pot odds are higher than equity you should continue. If not you should fold.
oriole said:
I am very afraid that you are right. It is unlikely that a regular player can keep in his head so many statistics on all villains in order to determine their range so accurately, for further accurate calculation of EV. And also to do these calculations for a few seconds of time, playing at several tables at the same time. Obviously, special software copes with this task faster and more accurately than people. And the program has no memory limit, it does not get tired, does not forget anything and does not confuse similar nicknames. This is the main reason why even a poorly tuned "poker bot" will play better than the average player. Sooner or later, it will either kill poker as a game for money, or force all poker rooms to take uncomfortable measures to totally limit the use of any additional programs.
But in any case, this is useful information, and you should understand the logic of such a calculation. Sometimes it can be used against a villain. If the calculation of EV shows him that it will be beneficial to call against my stronger hand - I will only be glad. 😀
Interesting, if we have the software is another tool that could help us make a better decision, whether it is worth or not to bet, especially in online poker
That is a lot to figure and take in. I'm sure it becomes easier over time, but it is a lot to get as a beginner but likely necessary in long run if ever want to be really good plus probably a whole lot more math and statistics beyond this to know.
This is coming from someone who thinks he considers this for every action, every hand, every day. I wanted the article to walk me through the math to further understand what I think I employ thousands of times a day. Great article, but it's a little difficult to follow.
I missed the title "Limit Hold 'Em" for the first example and kept thinking "who the hell bets 10 into a pot of 100 there?!?!". It may have been interesting to use the same scenario for a No Limit example (with a bigger bet).
Typo:
I missed the title "Limit Hold 'Em" for the first example and kept thinking "who the hell bets 10 into a pot of 100 there?!?!". It may have been interesting to use the same scenario for a No Limit example (with a bigger bet).
Typo:
PsychoVas said:
I'd Love to Have rain Man With Me at The Tables lol...
Seriously "EV(bet) = P(X)amt(X) + P(Y)amt(Y) + P(Z)amt(Z)"
Having Read Through the EV Thread and Post I'll Seriously Have to Work Much Harder at Understanding it Well Enough to Gain Value From It...
As PsychoVas States Having a Math Degree would be an advantage but still doing those calculations on the fly would be strenuous...
Between Now And The April Challenge I'll DO Some Home Work and See How I Can Make this Article Benefit Me More...
Expected Value.
Very interesting article. This is the first time I have met the words "Expected Value" in connection with poker. It has started a lot of thoughts in my mind. I think i got the essence of the meaning of the words.
Very interesting article. This is the first time I have met the words "Expected Value" in connection with poker. It has started a lot of thoughts in my mind. I think i got the essence of the meaning of the words.
To EV or Not to EV
EV is a fascinating, mathematical formulation that has been something I have thought about and read about.
Although, factual, when I play, my poor mind can not do those calculations within a 45 sec trip that is divided into preflop, flop, turn and river segments, leaving me with less than 10 seconds a segment to perform magic.
Although a good study, outs, position, who's betting and their strategy, board reads and how much to bet; is there a few seconds left? Naw. Shucks.
If anyone out there has been able to include this in each and every hand along with evreything else to consider and in the short amount of time given, I would ove to know how they do it, really.
It is always good to read up on this. I appreciate the article and find it informative, statistical (which I love) and always for me a mind challenge.
EV is a fascinating, mathematical formulation that has been something I have thought about and read about.
Although, factual, when I play, my poor mind can not do those calculations within a 45 sec trip that is divided into preflop, flop, turn and river segments, leaving me with less than 10 seconds a segment to perform magic.
Although a good study, outs, position, who's betting and their strategy, board reads and how much to bet; is there a few seconds left? Naw. Shucks.
If anyone out there has been able to include this in each and every hand along with evreything else to consider and in the short amount of time given, I would ove to know how they do it, really.
It is always good to read up on this. I appreciate the article and find it informative, statistical (which I love) and always for me a mind challenge.
Comment #1 - Understanding Expected Value
Here's the link.
https://www.cardschat.com/forum/lea...tanding-expected-value-in-423279/#post5112941
Here's a copy of my comment.
"To EV or Not to EV
EV is a fascinating, mathematical formulation that has been something I have thought about and read about.
Although, factual, when I play, my poor mind can not do those calculations within a 45 sec trip that is divided into preflop, flop, turn and river segments, leaving me with less than 10 seconds a segment to perform magic.
Although a good study, outs, position, who's betting and their strategy, board reads and how much to bet; is there a few seconds left? Naw. Shucks.
If anyone out there has been able to include this in each and every hand along with evreything else to consider and in the short amount of time given, I would ove to know how they do it, really.
It is always good to read up on this. I appreciate the article and find it informative, statistical (which I love) and always for me a mind challenge."
Dan'O
Here's the link.
https://www.cardschat.com/forum/lea...tanding-expected-value-in-423279/#post5112941
Here's a copy of my comment.
"To EV or Not to EV
EV is a fascinating, mathematical formulation that has been something I have thought about and read about.
Although, factual, when I play, my poor mind can not do those calculations within a 45 sec trip that is divided into preflop, flop, turn and river segments, leaving me with less than 10 seconds a segment to perform magic.
Although a good study, outs, position, who's betting and their strategy, board reads and how much to bet; is there a few seconds left? Naw. Shucks.
If anyone out there has been able to include this in each and every hand along with evreything else to consider and in the short amount of time given, I would ove to know how they do it, really.
It is always good to read up on this. I appreciate the article and find it informative, statistical (which I love) and always for me a mind challenge."
Dan'O