Understanding Pot Odds and Expected Value (Day 5 Course Discussion)

Finished day 5...25 to go

It seems that the difficult part is to make correct decisions at the tables based on all the information (Pot odds, equity and EV ). I guess practice make you better.

Nice cat! Actually it's one on the first concepts I got into while playing poker, calculating the varience too, which makes cash games with lower one because of the 10% to 20% winpool in tournaments, but words aside, concerning the odds and the ev I find in more important at flop and turn. The river is a little tricky, as villain would bet the way you get odds to call, so you do when he is stronger. That's why combining ranges and odds is morelikely to get some profitable outcome on the long term, but still very tricky. What do you think?

would i call Q9h in the first place, if i was playing tight then no,

I can't believe this lesson actually made sense to me. Maybe there is hope for me in poker after all. Like Oranaro said above, combining ranges and odds seems more likely to lead to a profitable outcome. I'll take that one step further and add in aggressive play. Can't forget fold equity after all.

I'm loving this course and still hanging in there. I think I'll go take an aspirin and move on to the next lesson. I have the whole day off with nothing else to do.

Now I'm even more confused. This is certainly a very valuable lesson, and thank you for that. But now I look at every raise with a grain of skepticism, and the equity calculation drives me crazy after 20 minutes of playing. For the first time, I will train better at Spin&Go.

Debi said:

This is the last of the fundamental concepts you need to have a good understanding of before delving into strategy.

On day 5 Collin will help you calculate pot odds and will explain expected value.

If you have not yet read Day 5 and watched the video for Day 5 - take a few minutes now to do that and then come back here to discuss it:

Understanding Pot Odds and Expected Value

How did you do on the quiz? Hopefully now you have a better understanding of these 2 concepts - but if you have questions you are in the right place to ask them! Collin and Katie will be checking this thread to answer them and discuss these topics further with you.

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This is a very complicated subject, because at the time of the game it is difficult to calculate.

very good class on the 5th and super explanatory video. thanks

Gollox said:

THE CALCULATION WOULD BE THE SIZE OF THE POT BETWEEN THE CALL I SHOULD MAKE AND THAT GIVES ME THE PERCENTAGE OF WINNING OR NOT WINNING A HAND ¡}
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The calculation is correct and you have to compare the pot odds with your (expected) probability of winning the hand.

This is especially true with draw hands: one remaining card to a flush or straight.

But in the next course you'll find a great table with connecting the two.

So for now, you just have to understand the concept.

I enjoyed this much better than the equity lesson on day 4. This is simple math stuff that clicks instantly in my head.
Maybe I will go back to lesson 4 and try to show more interest than I did the first time.

Getting better with odds
2.5:1
About 28%
Raise 🤔

Debi said:

This is the last of the fundamental concepts you need to have a good understanding of before delving into strategy.

On day 5 Collin will help you calculate pot odds and will explain expected value.

If you have not yet read Day 5 and watched the video for Day 5 - take a few minutes now to do that and then come back here to discuss it:

Understanding Pot Odds and Expected Value

How did you do on the quiz? Hopefully now you have a better understanding of these 2 concepts - but if you have questions you are in the right place to ask them! Collin and Katie will be checking this thread to answer them and discuss these topics further with you.

Click to expand...

Pot odds

How much do we need to earn for our call to be profitable. We must know the equity of the hand and know the pot odds to know if the call is profitable. If the player bets 100% of the pot I have to win 33% of the times to my call be profitable. If it bets 50% of the pot I have to win 25% of the times.

How to calculate pot odds: The rule 4-2:

“The 4-2 Rule is a way to turn the number of drawing outs you have into your odds of hitting them. It's times 4 on the flop to hit on the turn or river, and times 2 on the turn to hit your draw on the river.”

If I have 10 outs from the flop to the turn the probability will be around 20% sometimes. I go all in with a flush draw on the flop, usually 9 outs and it will hit the turn and river 9 x 4 = 36% equity for the river. On the turn x 2 On the Flop x 4

How to calculate pot odds:

CALL VALUE / (CALL VALUE + POT + BET) = POT ODDS Calling: Call value / (Call value + Pot + Bet)

150% - 37.5% (150% the value of the pot)

100% - 33% (100% the value of the pot)

75% - 30%

50% - 25%

33% - 20%

Attacking: Bet / (Bet + Pot) Fold Frequency 150% - 66%

100% - 50%

75% - 43%

50% - 33%

33% - 25%

Percentage of times we have to steal a pot for our bet be profitable:

When we are attacking and bet the pot size, what percentage of times villain has to fold to our bet be profitable? Considering that EVERY TIME he calls I'm losing the hand. Fold frequency: Bet / (Bet + pot) Let's say I'm bluffing the river and I bet 100 blinds into a 100 blinds pot? How many percent does villain have to fold for our bet to be profitable?

Bet = 100 Bet = 100 Pot = 100 * 100 / 200 =50% (100 * 100 = 10000 / 200 = 50)

I have to steal the pot 50% of the times to be profitable.

A real out and a false out:

A real out is when we are absolutely sure that that out will give us the best hand QsJs, flop KhTs3d if it hits an Ad or if it hits a 9c I have the nuts. However, if you hit a 9h or an Ah we won't always have the best hand, as we could be losing to a flush.

Implied odds:

Question of real outs and false outs. Many times we hit our outs the chance of losing an even bigger pot is when you get reverse implied pot odds. Example KcQc on the BTN, the MP raised and the BTN called. And sB, who is a weak player, made a small squeeze. MP paid and BTN has very good pot odds to be looking for a very strong hand. Pot odds of 20% here. This hand's equity against opponents' range is not 20% equity the chance of the SB having an AA, QQ, KK is very big.

Implied Pot Odds:

How much will I win when I hit and how much will I lose when I lose the pot Would call with any hand, any suited hand he was calling, if he had an off suited connector would not be good for BTN to call the MWP squeeze with sB and MP. Calling almost exclusively for the flush draw. The flop comes TcJd5h and the SB bets the pot. and BTN has pot odds of 33% and has 15 outs. We have 30% equity, and SB villain has a 150BB stack. Implicit pot odds means that the times we hit our combo there are more chips/blinds to be won considering the stack size of the SB villain. It has only 8 outs and the possibility of a back door flush draw. Will hit the turn 18% of the times.

When BTN hits this 18% he will win a lot of chips against a weak player. Before, BTN was paying $18 dollars to chase a pot of 150 Now he is paying $ 52 to get the maximum of $ 96 that villain SB has behind him. In this case, it's a pretty easy fold, unless villain had another $ 200 behind it In the aforementioned case, a 6h hits and the villain bets $ 52 in a pot of $ 55.

Hello! I would write this post for those who don't read the tutorial, but look at the forum comments. I only describe the most important things, which are the lessons of the introductory chapter!

Chapter 5
(Understanding Pot Odds And expected value)


In this chapter, we need to know the probability of the cards in the hand, the amount given by our opponent, and the chances of the cards on the table, based on which we consider what we (safely)
odds can be given. The odds therefore allow us to learn about the profitability of placing in the long term, taking into account the size of the current pot and the size of the next bet.

the course helped a lot ! Thank You CC for the valueble information !

In today's class I learned that the more players at the table, the more likely they are to win chips, to win more chips than to spend.

1) What are the pot odds in the table?
have:
(P) Pot= 555
(B) Villain Bet = 375
(C) Call our = 375
Pot odds=(P+B)/C
(555+375)/75 =2.48
Pot Odd= 2.5-1

2) What percentage of times do you have to be correct to call on this bet?
To do this we need to add all the pot odds to get the total and then take our odd and divide it by the total, like this:

Call%=1/(2.5+1)=0.286
rounding off
29% approximately.

3) Do you think the Hero should call?
In this table the Hero should call because Villain entered limping in the small blind completing and not raising and on the flop he checks and raises a blind on the turn, he does not have many hands in his range and with two pairs on the board and an Ace in hand he Hero can pay by winning 29% of the time.

I have a question:
Is it possible to calculate all this quickly playing online poker in certain circumstances, since the response time must be short?

thanks, finished day 5!

ENRIQUE23977 said:

I have a question:
Is it possible to calculate all this quickly playing online poker in certain circumstances, since the response time must be short?

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It's hard. I give you that.
It takes a looooong time and practice for all these things to come together. Have I mastered them? NOPE.

There are Apps ( like Poker Trainer) to help you train these in your head.

Hi, Nice topic, I learn new concept in poker.
Answer to quiz:
1. Pot odds are 930+375/375, 2.48:1
2. Hero win 27% of the time.
3. Of according how the villain call, hero should be call.

Thanks for the course.

ENRIQUE23977 said:

Is it possible to calculate all this quickly playing online poker in certain circumstances, since the response time must be short?

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I had exactly the same problem.

That's why I converted the odds to pot sizes and am able to memorize this a little better. See here:

Now I can have conversations with advanced players about pot odds and EV. It will take some time to be able to make calculations in my head. Thanks again for the explanation of how to make these calculations!

Day 5 completed, interesting concepts to keep in mind.

Complicated calculations I have used such an application for a long time now that doing it in your head is quite a lot 😭

I think I said too soon about the last class being the hardest concept. Still very well taught! I believe within the days of the course those concepts will come together easier. Thank you, CardsChat!

If I know I have the worst hand most of the time, why should I keep calling, and how is it possible that I lose twice and win only once and still break even?