puzzlefish
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ribbybruno said:
What odds do you usually bet on? I am looking at profitability with a 50% success rate on picks and it looks like anything over 1.0 would result in profit. Seems too good to be true. Even for odds averaging as low as 1.3 that would mean $0.15 profit for every $1 bet. For 1000 bets of $1 each, you would expect $150 profit. (Profit at odds of 1.3 with 50% success rate = 500*1.3*$1 - 500*1*$1). Am I getting that calculation correct?
puzzlefish
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For tonight, April 30, I will do things a bit differently and start employing multiples.puzzlefish said:
Celtics and Nets win. (Double, 2.41 effective)
Lakers and Kings over 219.5 (Single, 1.61)
Lakers, 76ers, and Wizards all win (Trixie, 1.74 effective)
puzzlefish
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Made that post late at night. Calculation is not correct. For each $1 bet at 1.3 the return would be 0.3*$1 so $0.30. Over a series of 1000 bets at odds of 1.3, Profit = 500*0.30*$1 - 500*1*$1 = -$350 (loss).. so to break even at that rate would require odds at 2.0.puzzlefish said:
puzzlefish
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May 2
Nets>Bucks @2.2
Betting on Giannis to be out and KD to play.
Kings>Mavericks @3.3
Line is in favour of Mavericks, who have lost against the Kings the last 2 times and are also playing without rest.
Suns - 13.5 > Thunder @1.8
Nets>Bucks @2.2
Betting on Giannis to be out and KD to play.
Kings>Mavericks @3.3
Line is in favour of Mavericks, who have lost against the Kings the last 2 times and are also playing without rest.
Suns - 13.5 > Thunder @1.8
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puzzlefish
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puzzlefish said:
Giannis played. It was close but the Nets lost.
Kings won.
Thunder played better than usual.
1/3, but the 1 was @ 3.3 which was good.
I am watching the Raptors and Lakers. Betting that Raptors can stay within 10.5 of the Lakers and over 226.5.
puzzlefish
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Raptors did very well, bringing the night to 3/5. Lakers look to be in trouble as both LBJ and Davis don't look like they are doing well after their injuries.puzzlefish said:
May 3
Wiz - 4.5 > Pacers
Pistons > Magic
Pelicans> Warriors
Knicks > Grizzlies
puzzlefish
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2/4puzzlefish said:
May 4
Clippers -9.5 > Raptors, <218.5
Raptors are missing Van Fleet. Clippers are set to have both George and Leonard playing. Not expecting an energetic game.
Warriors > Pelicans
Heat - 3.5 > Mavericks
puzzlefish
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puzzlefish said:
1/4, as Raptors played with Van Fleet so they didn't lose as badly, Pelicans outplayed the Warriors, and the Heat stalled.
For tonight.. I got nothing. Kind of interested in Bucks vs Wizards but nothing standing out for bets.
Edit:
76ers - 13.5 > Rockets
Kings > Pacers, Kings + 6.5 > Pacers
Suns - 1 > Hawks
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puzzlefish
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3/4. Suns had a bizarre cooler of a game. Couldn't seem to connect any shots starting in the third.puzzlefish said:
Nothing worth betting on yet tomorrow. Maybe the Pacers game vs. the Hawks..
puzzlefish
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1/2, Wizards squeeze by the Raptors. Pacers, despite being riddled with injuries and internal disruption, outplay a healthy Hawks team. This pretty much sums up betting this season. No matter what edge may be present before tip-off, all it takes is either team to run hot or cold to make it all a coin flip.puzzlefish said: